patrick.net

I'll get things started:

I predict the Bay Area will see a growing shift in jobs, but not as bad of job losses as most other areas of the country. We'll suffer a lot of pain due to lost real estate related employment, though a boom in foreclosure-related employment.

But technology will, perhaps ironically, serve as a bit of a safe haven. Tech companies are about as far from the RE meltdown as any sector. Tech revenues come largely from corporate spend, which itself is cyclical and driven by competitive and productivity pressures. And that cycle is on the upswing.

I am careful to also predict that even the best-case tech-haven scenario doesn't spare the Bay Area real estate market. Even while our greatest techs continue to chug along, salaries won't inflate anywhere nearly enough to rescue bubble house prices. So house prices come down, down and down. Probably 70%+ in war-zone areas, 50%+ in bullshit areas with bad schools, and 20%-30% in prime areas. I think the _very least_ the Bay Area gets away with is half of those price reductions.

I also predict:

* No Second Great Depression
* No Hyperinflation
* No US collapse and subsequent wonderful new world of internationalist Kumbaya sing-ins
* No direct relief to FBs even if there is a bailout of their lenders
* At least 1 more Patrick.net author will buy a house in the next 12 months

My prediction is that there's gonna be a backlash against the federal government when the analog TV signals go dead next year.

This backlash will motivatie a small number of normal non-voters to the polls to reject what they perceive as status quo candidates. It will be a relatively small number of voters but if there's a close election it could be enough people to be important.