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Oh, boy... it gets even worse:
"Cash-out refis soar"
tinyurl.com/9ckbe
"Americans are using refinancing to take cash out of their homes -- but that can be a risky strategy."
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The pace of mortgage refinancing has not slowed, according to a new report from Freddie Mac. But the primary reason for refinancing may have changed.
In a growing proportion of refinancings, homeowners are taking major amounts of cash out of the transactions.
In the quarter ended June 30, 74 percent of Freddie Mac-owned loans that were refinanced resulted in principal amounts larger by at least 5 percent.
Only 9 percent of refinancings resulted in lower loan amounts.
In other words, nearly three-quarters of homeowners refinancing a $100,000 loan wound up with a loan principal of at least $105,000, usually more...the difference between the size of the old loan and the new loan is being taken out in cash.
In 2003, that was the case only 33 percent of the time. Back then refinancing was rate driven, according to Bob Moultin of Americana Mortgage Group. Homeowners reworked mortgages to take advantage of lower interest rates so they could reduce their monthly bills.
Now they refinance to put cash in their pockets or to pay for big purchases.
Peter P
2005 Aug 2, 8:14am
So much for the “housing demand supported by cash-rich immigrants and cash-flow savvy RE investors†theory…
It is not supported by Moneyed Immigrants, Rich Ancestors and Generous Expatriates? No more MIRAGE. ;)
Thanks Peter --I'd almost forgotten about that. Now we know for certain it truly was a 'MIRAGE'.
My Mom, who's always been a little bullish on the housing market, is even shaking her head these days. One house in her neighborhood is up for $1.9 million and another recently sold for $1.6 million. I don't know who is buying these, but there's no question they're paying top dollar. I think this is truly the last gasp, where prices have that last spike as inventories rise.
Peter P
2005 Aug 2, 8:39am
Now they refinance to put cash in their pockets or to pay for big purchases.
The smarter fools should use these cash to pay for their mortgages if they want staying power in the coming downturn.
As far as jobs go, I would guess that state/local government jobs (ie: anything tied to property taxes, such as education) will be hard hit once property values go down. Companies are already beginning to shed workers (Auto makers, HP, Western Wireless), so I'd say that the next bump in the road is beginning even before the RE industry casts off half it's workforce. I would bet that health care will continue to boom while the boomers crawl into peak health-care age
Additionally, alternative energy careers will probably boom in the next 10 years given the increased demand for energy coupled with the decreased availability of oil. EscapeFromDC's page, while pretty doomsdayish, is convincing about the value of that commodity in coming years. For that matter, taking a page from him, I'd bet that the defense industry will continue to be a profitmaker until some alternative energy is developed sufficiently.
Oil as a commodity would probably be a good investment in the near term. Alternative energy, while a more important investment vehicle, will probably never recoup its investment, due to the nature of utilities investments, which never seem to make the sort of money that luxury/sin investments do.
If you happen to be in the RE/Mortgage/Banking game…I hope you're good with a wrench.
LOL. Well, many of these johnny-come-latelys are landlords, right? Oh, wait, I forgot --they're mainly absentee landlords paying other people to do the maintenance for them. Too bad... :-(
Gee, I'm sorry... is my schadenfreude showing through? Gosh, I hope it doesn't have anything to do with all the arrogant bragging and "investment advice" I've been forced to swallow from swaggering trolls over the last few years...
Peter P
2005 Aug 2, 9:10am
Additionally, alternative energy careers will probably boom in the next 10 years given the increased demand for energy coupled with the decreased availability of oil.
I do not have much faith in alternative energy because the industry still lacks politcal power. I believe any future energy crisis will be "resolved" using political or military means.
Sadly, oil will remain king until unbearable pain is felt and damage is done.
History always repeat itself.
Agreed - speculative nimrods are rarely capable of learning from their past mistakes (the current RE bubble being spawned from the tech bubble is a "prime" example). And even if they could, today's herd will always be followed by a new generation of little nimrods, who have no personal experience of the last cycle and therefore no fear. Greed, however, is a constant.
Peter P
2005 Aug 2, 10:35am
Moreover, HARM, there are so many new paradigms, which are different every time. :)
@hymie - Just a suggestion, but I'd recommend using tinyurl.com to cut down on URL length.
Peter P
2005 Aug 2, 10:57am
All 309 passengers survived plan crash in Toronto today. Thank God.
Miracles do happen in crashes.
Dipanjan,
I'd love to know what each bank's actual exposure is to MBS holdings and derivatives. The MBS/GSE's connection to loose lending was actually the subject of a previous thread: "Too Big to Fail?". I know they've managed to offload quite a large % of it (half or more by some estimates), but I have yet to find anything that gives you an actual breakdown by bank/lending institution. Maybe that's because they'd rather not have us know. ;-)
Ok, how many of you would like to see me silence the Sauce until he learns how to use TinuyUrl?
MP, I'm not interested in censorship. How lazy can you be, man?? You've been posting here for what, 3 weeks now?
MP, how do you know what it closed for?
I don't think we should censor MP. Every class needs its clown.
MarinaPrime Says:
August 2nd, 2005 at 7:09 pm
Further Evidence Housing is Still SUPER STRONG.
I just saw this 2b/1bath Cow Hollow top floor condo two sunday’s ago. It had THREE PRE-EMPTIVE OFFERS! It just closed yesterday for $305,000 OVER its $895,000 asking price!
Well FU, a-hole. You been spewing your crap on Ben's board as well. Are you a drone?
@HousingBubble Troll,
Calm, please - I know MP's extremely annoying but he hasn't been abusive (yet).
_smile_
MP is spamming all the housing bubble boards with the same posts.
Really, the picture is getting pretty clear. And it is... how do you say... amusing.
In other news: has anyone else noticed that Las Vegas is in the unhappy situation of having Mordor located directly to the west of it? One wonders how land prices will hold up when the Goblins start rolling in...
Cheers,
prat
You know, I've been one of the most "vocal" about getting rid of MP. But if Primetroll keeps writing poetry, it's worth it to let him stay.
"What could that rent for? 2k? Maybe 2.2k?"
Interestingly, I lived in a two bedroom victorian flat with my wife not a block from this listing two years ago. Our rent was $1850.
It is a lovely neighborhood. Practically pacific heights (in fact, some maps have pacific heights starting at Union st.), nothing like the uncouth flatlanders a bit lower down the hill...
_smile_
Cheers,
prat
Someone's been impersonating the Sauce --those last posts were fakes.
Gone.
thanks, Prat.
primetroll, you've brought tears to my eyes *sniff*. Such a sublime ode to a sub-prime toad...
_madonna voice_: Don't cry for us Mah-ah-ah-rina.... The truth is we never cared for you, All through our wild days, our mad existence, we (sort of) kept our promise... Don't feed the trolls.
g'night,
prat
Sauce, we're *still* waiting for you to answer Josh's challenge from the last thread (see "Boomers & the Bubble") to actually show us that $1.2 million Marina mansion you're supposedly living in. Don't you want to prove to us "sad" losers once and for all that you're not really a 13-year-old impersonating a $400k/year grownup bigshot?
Thought you guys would appreciate this link:
http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20050802_powderkeg.htm
(do I need to put brackets around that? I guess I will find out in a second...)
No one believes that someone who has the time to troll at least 3 blogs (that we know about) has a full time job. I know I get repetitive, but c’mon. He/she lives w/mom, not in a prime location, using us as a real life video game. We know this. Anymore I tolerate the troll just to get more posts from Primetroll. I am in awe.
Don’t worry, we (semi)regulars are just having a bit of fun troll baiting. We can’t be gloomy and serious all the time, can we? “)
True. Where would we be without primetroll's (and TWIT's) Sauce-inspired poetry? And let's not forget we have Sauce to thank for that hilarious NYTimes post in the last thread.
Sure, he usually trite, arrogant and annoying, but once in a while he's good for a bit of fun.
G'nite, all...
Peter P
2005 Aug 2, 4:42pm
So, where were we? Sauce will prevail if we let him disrupt our discussion.
Peter P
2005 Aug 2, 4:44pm
ptiemann, an inverted surfer-x would be waveboarder-y, his "evil" twin.
Peter P
So, where were we? Sauce will prevail if we let him disrupt our discussion
All one has to do is look at how much time has been wasted responding to his posts to see that is true; which is EXACTLY what he wants. Why are we wasting our time?
Peter P
2005 Aug 2, 4:52pm
All one has to do is look at how much time has been wasted responding to his posts to see that is true; which is EXACTLY what he wants. Why are we wasting our time?
We should religiously ignore its posts and perform daily garbage collection. We should just condition our eyes to skip its comments.
We should religiously ignore its posts and perform daily garbage collection. We should just condition our eyes to skip its comments.
I agree.
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At hymie's request:
"So much of the current economy has been dependent on this bubble. So many construction jobs, interior design etc. related to HELOCS, consumer spending in general. I truly believe that the as interest rates rise and the money available dries up, it is really going to saturate the market. When rates adjust, all payments go up. As a result, consumer spending decreases. This is not good for the business climate, but definitely necessary. I think that when consumer spending/confidence shifts, it will have a direct impact on the economy. Perhaps just a matter of time. How many people know friends whose jobs are dependend on the curent housing market? I just went to a Dodger game with a guy whose entire life depends on putting in granite countertops. I honestly would hate to be him in two years. He thinks that the FED should keep the interest rates low no matter what. I don’t get it. Does anyone believe that the current market is codependent on these sorts of things? Once again, we are not PRODUCING!!!"
Housing currently accounts for only 13% of California's overall economy: tinyurl.com/a64pl.
However, it accounts for HALF of all private sector jobs created in the past two years:
"...of the 243,000 private payroll jobs added in the state in the past two years, 122,000 can be directly tied to the housing market, according to UCLA Anderson. “In short, a sector of the economy that makes up 10 percent of total private sector jobs is accounting for 70 percent of the total job gains.†tinyurl.com/dereu
Does this mean when housing prices (and building activity) declines, a recession in CA is unavoidable? Obviously some jobs are more vulnerable to RE than others, but a downturn will no doubt affect us all to some degree. How do you think your job or company will weather the storm? Are there any "housing bubble-proof" jobs? Discuss...
#housing