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And I Thought You Were My Friend...


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2007 Oct 11, 5:08pm   23,685 views  227 comments

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I thought you were my friend...

I noticed that every housing-related article in my rss-feeds today has a negative headline. Negative reports on housing sales, housing starts, home-builders, mortgages, and housing prices. If they aren't predicting further drops, then they are blaming slow retail sales on housing and mortgage problems. In more and more articles, the REIC are being fingered as accomplices to fraud.

Boston Globe: "The US housing bust is like a leaking ship."
Bloomberg: "Retail Sales Slowed as Housing Fell"
Valley Tribune: "Realtor faces trial in alleged scam"
NBC: "Officials Say Mortgage Fraud Is Growing Problem"
AP: "Bear Stearns Predicts Ripple Effect of Real Estate Decline"
Bakersfield Californian: "Realtor Offices Raided By FBI"
Los Angeles Times: "Home prices expected to drop"
:
:
and so on.

When they actually quote from a shill - either a realtor, or a NAR-dummy, or a home-builder - it is invariably with a counterpoint from a more credible source.

Has the MSM has finally clambered on to the bandwagon and left the REIC to fend for itself?

Should Patrick start reporting on articles that are still bullish on housing? Those are becoming harder to find!

SP

#housing

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41   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 7:23am  

Pricing power doesn’t guarantee good food, but the lack of pricing power guarantees bad food or bad business.

You're arguement completely discounts the notion of good street food, "hole in the wall" excellent food experiences ala Calvin Trillin. Some of the best food can be found at places like this, not only at the French Laundry or Manresa.

42   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 7:23am  

EBGuy,
Yes, that place is outrageously priced, but IMO worth it.

43   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 7:44am  

skibum, pricing power does not equate high price.

44   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 7:44am  

BTW, I don't like Manresa.

45   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 7:46am  

Some “hole in the wall” restaurants are pricey. (e.g. Sawa Sushi)

46   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 7:47am  

pricing power does not equate high price.

Sure, but most often it does.

I haven't been to Manresa in a year or so - have they gotten worse, or did you never like them that much? We've been thinking about going back soon...

47   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 7:52am  

Sure, but most often it does.

Not really. It is more about the ability to increase prices.

Many restaurants lack the ability to raise prices just to keep pace with inflation. Some can't even survive without offering deep discounts.

It is sad. Food is difficult business. Real estate WAS much easier. ;)

I haven’t been to Manresa in a year or so - have they gotten worse, or did you never like them that much? We’ve been thinking about going back soon…

I was there about 1.5 years ago. It was okay, but I was not too impressed. I will give it another try.

48   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 8:04am  

Peter P,

Funny that we're on this topic. A recent WSJ piece looked at this very subject in NYC:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119198373154954370.html

As a result, there has been a high rate of inflation at these best-in-class venues. Since 9/11, the average meal cost at the restaurants on our 20 Most Expensive list has jumped to $143.06 from $84.85 -- 11.6% a year. The arrival of super expensive restaurants like Masa ($485) and Per Se ($301) contributed to this sea change, but even without these newcomers, inflation at top-of-the-line places is roughly 5%.

Among all New York restaurants, however, the average cost of a meal has risen only three cents since last year's survey -- to $39.46 from $39.43, a barely perceptible 0.1% This is thanks to a slew of inexpensive newcomers that keep the cost average steady. New York might be the most expensive city in America for dining out, but for average meal cost it's far behind Paris ($71.51), Tokyo ($73.11) and London ($78.57).

So, fancy restaurants in New York are getting more and more expensive, while cheap restaurants are still cheap. Meanwhile, it's very expensive to eat in Paris, London and Tokyo. Based on personal experience, I'd say the Bay Area (SF proper in particular) fits the bill with NYC - top restaurants are getting more expensive, while good cheap food is still pretty easy to come by.

49   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 8:17am  

Based on personal experience, I’d say the Bay Area (SF proper in particular) fits the bill with NYC - top restaurants are getting more expensive, while good cheap food is still pretty easy to come by.

In the-restaurant-that-we-can't-talk-about, you can still get a decent 7-course dinner for $97.

I don't recall Tokyo being too expensive. I hear London is super expensive though.

50   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 8:21am  

But don't you at least agree that a good restaurant should not be afraid to raise prices just to maintain a profit margin?

Food in SF proper is generally reasonably priced. Even The Dining Room has 4-course dinner under $100 (still? haven't been in a while).

NY is really quite pricey. I remember paying $60 for 5 pieces of thumb-sized sushi.

51   e   2007 Oct 12, 8:21am  

>>In the-restaurant-that-we-can’t-talk-about, you can still get a decent 7-course dinner for $97.

Oh come on. Drop me a line - let me know. I won't blog about it! burbed@burbed.com :)

52   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 8:25am  

But don’t you at least agree that a good restaurant should not be afraid to raise prices just to maintain a profit margin?

Yes, definitely - simple market principles should apply to restaurants, after all. Coming back full circle, though, those who appreciate the actual food and dining experience are too few and far between to make those metrics the basis for which restaurants have the ability to set a price. It's usually trendiness and good restaurant reviews (Michelin stars, Zagat's, etc.) that dictate pricing power, although of course there is some correlation between reviews and quality.

I'd bet the French Laundry could double their current prices, and they'd still have a month+ long waitlist.

53   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 8:31am  

I’d bet the French Laundry could double their current prices, and they’d still have a month+ long waitlist.

Why don't they?

If there is a waiting list, the price is wrong.

54   StuckInBA   2007 Oct 12, 9:00am  

Any good sushi restaurants here in south bay ? Sunnyvale/Santa Clara/Mountain View area ? Thanks.

55   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 9:06am  

Any good sushi restaurants here in south bay ? Sunnyvale/Santa Clara/Mountain View area ? Thanks.

Nami Nami on Castro is not bad.

If you really LOVE raw fish, Sawa Sushi in Sunnyvale some good sashimi. But they have nothing but raw fish. There is no price and no menu.

56   EBGuy   2007 Oct 12, 9:29am  

This should give a boost to local inventory numbers. SF and Marin still have a ways to go, though. Love this CL listing: $156000 Condo-Short Sale Investor wanted-Long Term Tenant Included. You guys are never going to become homemoaners if you keept going out for sushi -- sign me a JBH.

57   EBGuy   2007 Oct 12, 9:41am  

The Bay Area home foreclosures triple in September link was broken in my last post.

58   Claire   2007 Oct 12, 10:13am  

While we are on the subject - what happened/is happening with the Golden Wok in Mountain View? Anyone know the story?

Thanks

59   SP   2007 Oct 12, 11:43am  

# skibum Says:
TAP Plastics and that aquarium are what I think of, not trendy eateries.

I am not too sure about TAP Plastics, but that aquarium is one of the best things happening there. :-) I usually drop a fiver in the donation basket - just doing my bit to make sure they don't shut down and turn the place into yet another Italian-Vietnamese-Indian Fusion Dining Bistro kind of place.

60   Different Sean   2007 Oct 12, 12:55pm  

i blamed slow retail sales on housing woes years ago....

61   FormerAptBroker   2007 Oct 12, 2:20pm  

eburbed Says (about the SSF “Single Mom” with 9 kids):

> Actually it turns out she wasn’t always single…

I still thought the story was funny (there really are people stupid enough to have 9 kids “and” get a variable rate subprime loan) …

Then (after a morning of RE Bubble talk) Peter P Says:

> Thanks to Google, we have better restaurants on Castro.

And I have to admit I have never thought about heading down to Mtn. View with a date for dinner…

Peter P then Says:

> San Mateo downtown has better food overall than Mountain View.

And is closer to SF for a “suburban dining adventure”… I wonder if single Mom’s with 9 kids in South City will head up to the city or down to San Mateo for a first date?

Then skibum Says:

> Besides besides, the day Castro Street (Mtn View)
> is truly trendy is the day hell freezes over.

As scary as it is to say this could happen, but hell “will” freeze over when Grand Ave. in SSF is “trendy” (nothing is less trendy than a 29 year old 250 pound Latina single mom with 9 kids).

> TAP Plastics and that aquarium are what I think of, not trendy eateries.

If you like cool plastic aquariums there is a nice one at the new Sushi Rock in the inner Richmond (that just opened in the old Café Riggio space on Geary Blvd.)…

skibum then Says:

> The opposite example is/was Manka’s in Inverness.
> Great food, not so trendy.

Has anyone heard if this place is open again (after the fire) or any other recommendations for cool places to eat after a day kayaking on Tomales Bay?

Then EBGuy Says:

> Admittedly I am somewhat of a cheapskate —
> I can do $100+ on a meal for two (including tip)

I hope you don’t ever order wine…

Peter P then Says:

> BTW, I don’t like Manresa.

Has anyone heard if the new Bay Area Michelin Guide is out? It was just about a year ago that I read about Manresa in the last guide and made reservations to stop there for dinner on the way back from Monterey…

> Peter P then Says:

> In the-restaurant-that-we-can’t-talk-about, you can still get
> a decent 7-course dinner for $97.

Please don’t keep your friends on the best Bay Area Real Estate & Restaurant BLOG guessing, what is “the restaurant-that-we-can’t-talk-about”?

P.S. Has anyone heard from astrid (she always seemed to get more interested in food/cooking utensil threads than RE threads)?

62   OO   2007 Oct 12, 2:34pm  

FAB,

they are referring Kaygetsu, a Menlo park strip mall outfit that, surprisingly serves the traditional Japanese Kaiseki dinner. $97 is only for the dinner, then you almost always have to order sake pairing, which is another $35ish on top.

Is it good? Well, if you ever head to Kyoto, I can suggest a couple of places that are considered the top of the top (but you can only get in if you stay in the first-rate Ryokans -Japanese B&B- or Ritz equivalent, because the kaiseki outfits are horribly pretentious, excuse my french). I think one needs to do it once in life, but once is enough. Kaygetsu is the cheapest place where you can do this, but kaiseki is also about the dining experience as a whole, so the garden, decor, or even live performance (which is available in Kyoto) should be part of the package.

Compared to a $300/pp bill upwards in Kyoto, Kaygetsu is a steal.

63   OO   2007 Oct 12, 2:34pm  

referring to

64   OO   2007 Oct 12, 2:40pm  

OK, just checked out Manresa's website, $92 pp + wine + tax tips etc.

Is it worth it? Anybody who has tried it out yet? If I am paying close to a hundred bucks pp excl wine, the food had better blow me away or I'd be very pissed.

65   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 3:10pm  

Is it worth it? Anybody who has tried it out yet? If I am paying close to a hundred bucks pp excl wine, the food had better blow me away or I’d be very pissed.

I prefer The Dining Room.

http://www.ritzcarlton.com/en/Properties/SanFrancisco/Dining/TheDiningRoom/Menu.htm

66   SP   2007 Oct 12, 4:01pm  

FAB said:
If you like cool plastic aquariums there is a nice one at the new Sushi Rock

The one that skibum brought up wasn't a lonely aquarium in a restaurant, it was an actual aquarium/terrarium store that has really clean, well-maintained displays and healthy, well-cared for fish and reptiles. It is really worth a visit if you are there with a kid.

Being a regular store, there is no admission fee. Lately, however, they figured they should monetize the foot-traffic of looky-loos, and have a basket by the door for donations. Well worth the buck or five, IMO.

SP

67   OO   2007 Oct 12, 4:10pm  

PeterP,

thanks for the suggestion, will try it out when I need to head up to the City.

68   SP   2007 Oct 12, 4:16pm  

Since this has turned into a restaurant discussion anyway, does anyone have recommendations for places to eat around UCSD? I will be there on a Sunday in a week or two. Looking for a dive-y place to hang out, nothing very ritzy or dressy. Also, what's a good place to knock back a few beers around there? Is there a Tied House equivalent?

SP

69   EBGuy   2007 Oct 12, 5:44pm  

Has anyone heard if this place is open again (after the fire) or any other recommendations for cool places to eat after a day kayaking on Tomales Bay?
I spent a bit of time surfing the web this afternoon and could find nothing to indicate Mankas was open again (except for, well, the menus on their website -- an homage to their past?) How about giving us a review of Nick's Cove in Marshall. It seems to have gotten a bit of ink these past couple of months (probably because of its connection with Pat Kuleto).

I hope you don’t ever order wine…
Hey, a glass will not break the bank... but being a cheapskate does mean I tend to get sticker shock on bottle markups (plus with higher alcohol content these days, a glass helps ensure I will make it home).

70   OO   2007 Oct 12, 5:58pm  

EBGuy,

if you can wait, I am going to try out Nick's Cove first, in a couple of weeks. It seems that the price is right.

I am more of a cheapstake than you, a good restaurant must price its inventory right. I am more than willing to pay for superb materials, cooking skills, but not decor, ambience, service or alcohol. You can abuse me at a hole in the wall if that makes your food cheaper, and since I am already married, there's no need to woo my wife, she manages the family finance and approves the bill.

71   skibum   2007 Oct 13, 1:14am  

RE: the Tomales Bay area, there's always the old standbys - Hog Island Oysters, Station House Cafe in Point Reyes Station, and the Olema Inn.

RE: Manresa, I've been there twice. I like it a lot. It's by and far the best in the South Bay, although that's not hard to do. It's as good as most of the top end SF restaurants. Up in the City, in addition to the dining room, try Quince, and I still have a soft spot for Zuni.

72   ozajh   2007 Oct 13, 1:53am  

Thanks to Google, we have better restaurants on Castro.

The Patrick version of the Butterfly effect:

"Even the mildest reference to eating in a post results in a food thread." :)

73   FormerAptBroker   2007 Oct 13, 1:56am  

OO Says:

> FAB, they are referring Kaygetsu, a Menlo park strip mall
> outfit that, surprisingly serves the traditional Japanese
> Kaiseki dinner. $97 is only for the dinner, then you almost
> always have to order sake pairing, which is another $35ish..

Sounds like a place to check out when I am down on the Peninsula…

> Is it good? Well, if you ever head to Kyoto, I can suggest a
> couple of places that are considered the top of the top (but
> you can only get in if you stay in the first-rate Ryokans
> Compared to a $300/pp bill upwards in Kyoto, Kaygetsu
> is a steal.

No plans to head to Kyoto any time soon. Last time I was there I had dinner at a little place in one of the long covered shopping malls off a main street. I think dinner for two (with Sake) was only about 40,000 Yen…

SP Says:

> Since this has turned into a restaurant discussion anyway,
> does anyone have recommendations for places to eat
> around UCSD? I will be there on a Sunday in a week or
> two. Looking for a dive-y place to hang out, nothing very
> ritzy or dressy. Also, what’s a good place to knock back a
> few beers around there? Is there a Tied House equivalent?

It had been a long time since I stopped off at UCSD to see friends (and drink beer) before heading down to Baja with surfboards in the back of the Toyota. I still make it down to SD about once a year, but don’t make to many of the beach beer bars anymore. Your best bet is to ask the college kids if they know any good places in Pacific Beach or Ocean Beach (the college kids still probably call them “PB” and “OB”). There is not many beer places near UC since you have La Jolla Farms to the west (Like Atherton, but with water views), Del Mar to the North (Like Los Gatos, but with water views) University Town Center/UTC to the east (like Redwood Shores, but with a mall) and La Jolla to the South (like Hillsborough/Burlingame, but with water views and a sinkhole). PB is south of La Jolla and will have more college kids (a mix of UC, SDSU, and USD) in the bars while OB will have more surfer hippies in the bars. If it is a nice day it is worth the money to have a beer in La Jolla (just down the hill from UC) on the roof top terrace (with an amazing cove view) at Georges
http://www.georgesatthecove.com/ocean-terrace/

74   svcausguy   2007 Oct 13, 7:08am  

Harney: Lawmaker targets mortgage tax break for larger homes
By Kenneth Harney
Article Launched: 10/11/2007 03:10:34 PM PDT

WASHINGTON - Though the housing and real estate industries oppose the plan, a key House committee leader's proposed "carbon tax" cutbacks on mortgage interest deductions are attracting strong support from environmental and scientific groups.

Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., chairman of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee, wants to phase out mortgage interest write-offs for houses larger than 3,000 square feet, using a graduated scale that ends at zero deductions for properties with 4,200 square feet or more.

Though he says he recognizes that newly constructed houses may be "more energy efficient" than older ones, their "sheer size, sprawl and commutes lead to dramatically more energy use - or to put it more simply, a larger carbon footprint."

In his latest draft of the plan, Dingell provides more detail about the housing-related tax elements than he did in earlier versions. The new draft also offers some limited exemptions from the phaseout, including for "historical homes" built before 1900, farm houses, certified energy-efficient homes, and houses whose owners "purchase carbon offsets to make the (property) carbon-neutral."

Under the plan, owners of homes containing 3,000 to 3,199 square feet would be eligible for only 85 percent of the mortgage interest deductions they currently receive. Homes of 3,600 to 3,799 square feet would lose 60 percent of the interest deductions, homes of 4,000 to 4,199 square feet would lose 90

75   svcausguy   2007 Oct 13, 7:12am  

>>Thanks to Google, we have better restaurants on Castro

You got to be kidding me!!! Oh lord.. please go back to where ever you came from ... what a freaking idiot.

76   SP   2007 Oct 13, 8:59am  

@FAB,
Thanks for the UCSD suggestions. I had been to George's in 2004, a day or two after the big tsunami in Asia. The view was fantastic, and the food was pretty good too. Since we plan to hike around Torrey Pines and then head into town for grub & booze, we may be a little dishevelled for a place like George's.

Someone suggested Karl Strauss Brewery, and a place called Sorella's, which may be more tolerant of casual attire.

SP

77   OO   2007 Oct 13, 9:30am  

SP,

thanks for the suggestions, I've only been to Bodega Bay, never went to Tomales. Just booked a table with Nick's Cove, will write report on the food in 2 weeks.

svcausguy

you probably haven't seen Mountain View prior to Netscape, the food scene there was completely pathetic. Compared to pre-97, what we have today is already heaven.

78   HelloKitty   2007 Oct 13, 10:37am  

Based on this:
"Harney: Lawmaker targets mortgage tax break for larger homes"

I just got a golden brainstorm idea which is this:
"Hello Kitty proposes a law in CA allowing homeowners to move thier prop 13 tax basis to any home of any cost regardless of their age IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THE CARBON WASTE INHERENT IN TRAPPING PEOPLE IN THIER HOMES FAR FROM WORK INCREASING COMMUTES DRASTICALLY".

Seriously Id like to see someone so a study on average commute in CA vs the next simliar state(AZ?) I'm positive prop13 traps people into longer commutes (especially dual income people). The idea is to free up more inventory by letting prop 13 owners transfer it to any old home(thus lowering prices). Let freedom ring I say.

We could never pass such a law to 'lower housing prices' but the tactic to 'lower carbon waste, gas consuption, and pollution' will go over very well in CA. (i know it sounds crazy in other states, here in CA it DOES make sense.) You have to have a smog pump on a dirt bike here in CA. Only state that does that, but people will drive 100 miles to work to avoid moving and paying higher prop tax since p13 locks thier low rate as is. CA is insane.

79   svcausguy   2007 Oct 13, 11:57am  

OO

Im a residend since 1971.. we had some very good Chinese Food back in the day in Castro. The earlier comment placed too much connection with Google. Heck we had some great places back in the 80s much better than today. Too bad many today came to the Bay Area in the Mid 90s and have no clue...

80   justme   2007 Oct 13, 2:53pm  

HelloKitty,

Your Prop 13 scheme will cause a run on all those foreclosures in Manteca (to establish the tax base), immediately followed by a run on the fortress area (to move the tax base to where people want to use it).

Net effect: Lots of paper shuffling, still lots of carbon emitted, huge price run-up in the fortress. You couldn't have come up with a better scheme if your name was Kathy Bridgeman(*),

Of course, what you had in mind was likely opposite, namely lots of fortress selling. That would only be possible if you created an asymmetric version of the rule, so that it applies only to those leaving certain areas or what not.

In any case, I can predict that those damn fortress boomer won't sell until after they start pushing daisies. no matter what you do, short of dismantling prop 13 altogether and bringing everyone to market rate. Then and only then will they run away to Florida.

(*) High-end fortress area realtor that takes out lots of full page ads with her mug shot in them.

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