patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
1,364,242 comments by 15,735 users - Blue, floki, mell, RWSGFY online now
Why correction in some Bay areas/Orange county is very slow?
2010 Sep 11, 8:46am 11,856 views 15 comments
« First « Previous Comments 10 - 15 of 15 Search these comments
justme
@
2010 Sep 12, 11:51pm
Your latest calculation is still wrong, but we both copied one number wrong each (let's call that even). Here are the correct numbers and calculations:
% (75024/58994)**(1/7)
1.03493528961006
% (85730/64573)**(1/7)
1.04131739402802
This means 3.5% and 4.1% for Orange the City, households versus families, not 4% and 4.7% as you say. And definitely not 5%.
Not even with your mistyped number do you get more than 4.1%:
% (85817/64573)**(1/7)
1.04146829175773
There is no way I can guess how you do your calculations, but the numbers that come out are incorrect.
Reference is Wikipedia, which says:
The median income for a household in the city is $58,994, and the median income for a family is $64,573 (these figures had risen to $75,024 and $85,730 respectively as of a 2007 estimate[20]).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange,_California#Demographics_in_2000
bubblesitter
@
2010 Sep 13, 5:12am
I never expected this to be an attacking each other thread. I just wanted honest opinions. Oh well, what can I do?
This is very similar to many parts of the Bay Area: Campbell, better parts of Sunnyvale, better parts of Fremont, and others. Houses were $400k-$500k in 1998, peaked around $900k-$1.1M and have fallen back to $700k-$800k. I think it’s the lack of foreclosures/gov’t intervention and still decently high demand that’s keeping prices from falling further.
More like prices were under $300K in the above areas before 1998. Doubled to $500K and went up again to $700-800K. Factoring in inflation the same 1998 prices adjusted for inflation the same homes would run as much between 300-400K which would be back to 3-4x household incomes.
Cvoc13
@
2010 Sep 14, 4:40pm
Because the Gov. is supporting the Housing market. 2) The Banks are not bringing to market all of the foreclosures, 3) The people here have more money to throw away on the thought this is the time to buy and with #2 real prices are not being found. 4) The Mark To Market rule was suspended allowing reason #2 (banks to hold off market)
People if you would look at this like a NEW IDEA and no history, and looking only forward accounting for all the headwinds of our Economy you would likely not think buying a house was a GOOD investment, It might be a good home, But investment? NO way, These areas will be 30% lower then they are today 9/15/2010 by the time the date clock reads 9/15/2013 almost without a doubt. We are in for a HELL of time folks, at least that is how I see it, Housing is just but one area that needs to and in fact will come down in price.
« First « Previous Comments 10 - 15 of 15 Search these comments
I want some honest opinions. I'd like it to be concise by % allocation to each of these points making it total 100%.
1) Only low paying jobs are lost in these areas?
2) Interest rate is too low.
3) All of the today's first time buyers are paying high % of their income on mortgage just because they think this is the way it would be in CA?
4) Move up buyers are renting their current residences and are using that rental income to pay current high prices.
5) Both first time buyers and existing home owners in these areas have big savings and are putting more toward down payment to reduce loan amount drastically.
#housing