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Counterparty risk and bubble hedging


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2007 Dec 20, 3:59am   19,719 views  94 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

While the sheer volume of bubble/hedge fund/MBS-CDO implosion stories appearing in the news daily nowadays, it can be difficult to pick out the "pearls" among the pebbles, or the truly extraordinary items from the mundane "yet another Wall Street multi-billion-dollar write-down". (Btw, amazing to see bubble implosion lead headlines every day on Bloomberg, MSNBC & CNNMoney, etc. compared to just 2-3 years ago, isn't it? Any long-timers remember Face Reality, Fake P, MarinaPrime, CuriousCat, DAiryQueen, etc. brushing off our concerns as Chicken Little, doomster hand-wringing?).

This one recently caught my eye, and stayed in the back of my mind (via Tanta with Calculated Risk):

“It’s a zero-sum game. If you put trades on that worked so well that you bankrupt your counterparty, you will not collect on those trades.”

--Jim Keegan, a senior vice president and portfolio manager at American Century Investments

I've often read MSM quotes from Wall Street outfit bigwigs (Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Chase, Citibank, etc.) to the effect that, "Even if all these MBSs/CDOs, derivatives, swap agreements & $Trillions in other financial Dark Matter go 'boom!', we're ok, dude. 'Cuz we, like, hedge 'n stuff."

Apparently, (if I'm reading Jim Keegan correctly), if your "insurance company" goes belly-up, then you "may" have a problem collecting on that insurance policy. So, I guess it comes down to a case of gambling --even on the bearish/short side-- is *still* gambling?

Am I interpreting this correctly?

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#bubbles

« First        Comments 90 - 94 of 94        Search these comments

90   Richmond   2007 Dec 22, 11:30am  

Ok, maybe I should have said "surplus" illegals.
I love the Cuban cigar twist, though.

91   PermaRenter   2007 Dec 22, 12:20pm  

Facing jail for slavery, NRI couple to lose house too

Published on Wed, Dec 19, 2007 at 13:34 in World » World360 section

HOME TRUTH: Mahender and his wife operated a worldwide perfume business out of their home

New York: Held guilty of modern day slavery and awaiting sentences, Mahender and Varsha Sabhnani, a wealthy business couple are set to lose their million-dollar house in Long Island near here.

India born Mahender, 51, and Indonesia-born Varsha, 45, are naturalised US citizens, who face around 20 years in prison after both were convicted for imprisoning and torturing two Indonesian maids in their house over a period of five years.

Federal court jurors in Central Islip unanimously decided Tuesday that the Sabhnanis' property in Muttontown was used in the commission of a crime and must be forfeited to the government.

The Sabhnanis operate a successful worldwide perfume business out of their Muttontown home.

The allegations against the couple included forcing the maids, identified only as Samirah and Enung, to work over 18 hours a day, beatings with brooms and umbrellas, slashings with knives and being made to repeatedly climb stairs and take freezing showers.

The same jury Monday had convicted the couple of imprisoning and torturing the two maids.

The Sabhnanis' case had received wide publicity in the US as well as abroad because prosecutors called it a rare instance of modern day slavery.

Their lawyers said the jury was taken with the histrionics of the maids, and plan to appeal.

92   Peter P   2007 Dec 22, 12:21pm  

I have no respect for any person who mistreats his domestic workers.

93   SP   2007 Dec 22, 11:15pm  

New topic: Predictions on what 2008 will bring?

94   wzweifler   2008 Jan 4, 5:15am  

BUYING DISTRESSED DEBT --- SOON
The sequence from counterpary default to contrarian opportunity.
We will buy distressed debt because we see the following sequence of events:
1. Credit rating downgrades
2. Counterparty defaults and abandonment
3. Further price weakness in distressed debt
4. Buying opportunity at deep discounts
5. Modest recovery in tranches and individual mortgage paper followed by material recovery in most of the acquired portfolio
Recent entry into the bond guaranty sector by a high profile investor suggests that buying the lender / or counterpary at a deep discount might be a preferred strategy for the very well endowed investor.
We want to talk to others who share our enthusiasm for this contrarian investment strategy on a smaller scale.

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