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2008 Predictions


               
2007 Dec 22, 11:14pm   28,400 views  125 comments

by SP   follow (0)  

Predictions on what 2008 will bring?

Here are my guesses...
- cascading counterparty defaults
- credit-deflation despite inflationary monetary policy
- recession is out in the open, MSM turns sour
- YOY drop in the fortress

There are also a few way-out-there possibilities that I would not be surprised by...
- banks forced to mark-to-market, some banks choke on being force-fed their own toxic waste
- BoJapan eases rates again in co-ordinated CB move, re-igniting carry trade
- HARM likes the Bay Area and decides to settle down here... :-)

SP

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1   anonymous   2007 Dec 23, 1:21am  

They'll come up with a catchy new word that means Depression w/o using the D word.

2   B.A.C.A.H.   @   2007 Dec 23, 2:46am  

In the press conference last week, the president made a remark to the effect that he'd work to get his party's nominee elected.

Could be an October surprise.

3   DennisN   @   2007 Dec 23, 3:39am  

HARM gets shot in Oakland, but fortunately it's only a flesh-wound. HARM then sees the light and moves to Idaho, where he packs heat.

Peter P gets tomaine from eating raw fish, so he changes his culinary preferences to BBQ. He then moves to Kansas City.

Newly elected President Condi Rice taps Patrick for Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Patrick's first official act is to prosecute WS, the banks, and others under the RICO statutes, causing them to forfeit all REO. The REO's are then distributed to worthy people who live within their means.

Surfer-X's father tells him a family secret - that Surfer-X had a 15 year coma early in life and has amnesia about that period. So Surfer-X turns out to be a Boomer.

4   Richmond   @   2007 Dec 23, 3:47am  

California will see an "off the books" population decline. It will show up in increased rental vacancies putting even more downward pressure on prices. I say that with the entire state in mind. The fortress, a strong maybe.

5   ColoradoBear   @   2007 Dec 23, 4:07am  

As the economy sags further the MSM finally begins to publish stories on the bogus government inflation and labor statistics. I see bloggers talking about these cooked stats now like the real estate a couple years ago.

Commercial real estate begins to show clear signs of a bust.

The dropoff in tax revenue combined with evaporation of investment portfolios will cause some former booming municipalities to tip into bankruptcy.

Politicians will scramble to come up with bailout plans that will not be effective and will only bankrupt the government sooner.

CNBC remains bullish.

6   anonymous   2007 Dec 23, 5:39am  

More and more people start living off the grid, and even off the monetary grid. A sort of "people's money" develops, with a real silver US coin being perhaps considered worth $10 in paper if it's a dime. A quarter is thus $25 and a copper penny is $1.

Hoovervilles multiply and a few debt-slaves finding themselves in them, get online and write about it, finding that when it comes down to it all, sitting in a Hooverville teaching one of the kids how to do cat's cradle and smelling the pot of beans cooking for lunch beats the hell out of the 60+ hour week and ulcers of being a good little debt-slave. Especially since the informal dentist (who started out training to be a vet before he started working on people) pulled that perpetually-aching molar they never had time or money to get done before.

Bartering and local currencies, already present, grow a bit more. A few decent Web sites explaining them and advocating them arise.

Interest in permaculture, already rising, increases. Rachael Ray does a show cooking with all stuff grown on her block.

7   HelloKitty   @   2007 Dec 23, 5:57am  

Skynet finally becomes self aware and immediately decides to nuke humanity on what is known as Judgement Day.

Killer robots will stalk the remaining humans who live like rats in the wreckage of their once great civilization.

Oh, and lots re-runs since the writer's strike will neva eva end.

8   Peter P Nis   @   2007 Dec 23, 6:57am  

Predictions on what 2008 will bring?

Jeebus.

9   SP   @   2007 Dec 23, 7:33am  

sybrib Says:
In the press conference last week, the president made a remark to the effect that he’d work to get his party’s nominee elected

Wait - who are you talking about? Putin? Or Musharaf? :-)

10   SP   @   2007 Dec 23, 7:37am  

Okay, this was fun (not that there's anything wrong with that. But I was hoping for a few serious guesses too.

11   GammaRaze   @   2007 Dec 23, 9:43am  

Here are my serious guesses:

Hillary wins in 08. She pursues the current policies even more aggressively, both abroad and domestically. But that is in 09.

08 will be a lot like 07 except more so. Real estate will continue to tank and realtors will continue to desert the profession in big numbers. It will become common knowledge that houses aren't really worth as much as people thought, so all the money hurled out of helicopters doesn't help anyone.

Foreclosures continue to rise, even in the fortress, and we start to see more and more infomercials about how to get very rich using pre-foreclosures.

The Internet 2.0 bubble finally deflates although some companies continue to do well. The job market starts to hurt and this, combined with the loss of jobs related to housing, really hurts the economy.

Bush seriously starts considering if he can declare emergency and stay the president for much longer.

Gas hits $4 a gallon.

What else?

12   anonymous   2007 Dec 23, 10:25am  

Sriram those sounds like good predictions to me.

Ugh! Hillary! Yuuuuck!

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