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Prices and Days On Market


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2008 Jan 13, 11:48pm   28,271 views  305 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

dom

Sale prices are always given as an absolute number, without context. The reality is that falling prices can be masked to some extent by a longer number of days on the market.

Getting $500,000 within a week of listing is not at all the same thing as getting $500,000 after having the house on the market for 2 years, yet both are recorded as the same price. Ultimately, you can pretend your house is worth whatever you want by letting days on market go to infinity -- just pulling it off the market. No one will buy it for your dream price, but you don't have to face the reality that it is not worth what you thought either. Assuming you can pay the mortgage.

Realtors know that increasing days on market proves that a house is not worth the asking price. That's why they commonly try to scam users by re-listing a house as if it just came on the market.

Patrick

#housing

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128   anonymous   2008 Jan 15, 9:09am  

Galloping Cheetah - explanation: Chindians get into dept manager positions and only hire other Chindians. Only.

This is why whites need to get to the local shooting range and get their training up to a high level. The clean-up ain't gonna be pretty and the economy's tanking so badly the clean-up's not all that far off.

129   anonymous   2008 Jan 15, 9:10am  

Essentially the BA's developing the same race-caste system I saw growing up in Hawaii. You were born into a certain race group, at a certain social level within that group, and that determined what jobs you could and could not get.

130   skibum   2008 Jan 15, 9:17am  

Walking is what terrorists and communists do. It’s for people who hate the freedom that cars provide us.

That joke stopped being funny around the 10th time you used it...

131   Peter P   2008 Jan 15, 9:21am  

You were born into a certain race group, at a certain social level within that group, and that determined what jobs you could and could not get.

Well, America is about free enterprises and businesses. We should not restrict ourselves to the concept of a job.

132   Randy H   2008 Jan 15, 9:23am  

This is why whites need to get to the local shooting range and get their training up to a high level. The clean-up ain’t gonna be pretty and the economy’s tanking so badly the clean-up’s not all that far off.

Where can we go to discuss real estate that isn't clogged up with this sort of ignorant shit?

Some of you are no better than the worst of the realtor scumbags I found infesting the Zillow groups. ... I retract that. You're worse.

133   EBGuy   2008 Jan 15, 9:24am  

SF is quite pretty too, but only if you get the bridge-to-bridge view. Now that is really going to cost the moon.
I am staring out the window looking at China (through the Golden Gate bridge) and the sun just set over the City. The Bay Bridge is partially blocked by buildings in Emeryville -- you can't have everything, but it certainly beats looking at the dump in Sunnyvale. All this for less than $2.50/sq.ft.
Know some folks who live on Yerba Buena Island; now that is a case where renting beats buying (can't buy anway). Talk about zillion dollar Ess Eff views; they had a neighbor in an end unit who put in a picture window (yes, he is a renter).

134   Peter P   2008 Jan 15, 9:26am  

Where can we go to discuss real estate that isn’t clogged up with this sort of ignorant shit?

Let's go to astrid's food blog. Let's hope it is still up. :)

135   FormerAptBroker   2008 Jan 15, 9:26am  

Randy H Says:

> Financial & economic illiteracy will be the downfall of
> free market capitalism.

I knew we were in trouble when my Dad told me (as a small child) that many of his co-workers (at a Fortune 500 company) didn’t care about higher taxes since they don’t pay them, and actually get paid by the government every year when they get a check in the mail after paying the H&R Block guy to send in their W2…

136   Peter P   2008 Jan 15, 9:29am  

I knew we were in trouble...

Can't change human nature...

I abhor anyone who wants higher tax. Those people should voluntarily pay extra to the IRS first!

137   Peter P   2008 Jan 15, 9:40am  

Oops, the illiteracy mentioned by FAB was so severe that I totally missed the point.

LOL

138   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 15, 9:44am  

Randy :

Where can we go to discuss real estate that isn’t clogged up with this sort of ignorant shit?

Are you resurrecting your blog ? I have learned to skip such comments on this blog, but there are many days, when there is nothing to read after skipping such comments.

139   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 15, 9:47am  

Peter P :

I was confused by your comment too.

FAB : Excellent ! One of the better ones I heard in a while.

140   GallopingCheetah   2008 Jan 15, 9:51am  


Galloping Cheetah - explanation: Chindians get into dept manager positions and only hire other Chindians. Only.

I don't know what to say. It used to be the whites hired only the whites, for a different reason. Racism. But the reason why some Chindians hire their own kind -- I've noticed the same -- is that it's just easier to manage. A white boy probably won't listen to a Chindian manager who tends to be more authoritarian. I've had American and Chinese interns and led projects with junior american students back in grad school. I tend to be hands-off and just encourage people to try -- and I don't take their credits. Things worked out pretty well. but I don't like to manage. Too much work.

Whenever something is started, usually the hobbists and gentleman-amateurs are at the forefront. As that thing becomes trendy, every mo'fcker wants to get in. The quality of the work, innovativeness, cleverness and beauty goes down. That's the time when you feel the Chindian effect.

141   anonymous   2008 Jan 15, 10:22am  

Cheetah - nope it's racism, and I will fight for my side and I can tell you, plenty more of my tribe will too. Do you realize what we're heading into? We're heading into the kind of Depression that brought about a revolution in Germany and almost did in the US. Nope I've felt the Chindian effect, the whole US has, and we're sick of it.

Racism is real, it's this weird idea of multiculturalism, level playing field among all the different racial teams, that's pie-in-the-sky. One group has to be on top, and they get to be on top only if they are bloodthirsty enough to get there and stay there. They lose position, and fall into actual starvation, if they lose their killer instinct. Sadly, but truly, this is what the philosophers behind the movement in Germany realized - among the different teams in this game, it's truly Nature red in tooth and claw.

There are going to be millions displaced from their homes in this RE bubble collapse we're seeing and laughing over, and while it's just RE after all, this is real life to most people. When the economy collapses you end up with a lot of really pissed off people, and things get rather serious.

142   anonymous   2008 Jan 15, 10:24am  

FAB - by the way I remember that way of thinking too ..... working-class US'ians are paying something like 25% in taxes out of their pay and getting back a few hundred at the end of the year, and it's all considered good!

Meanwhile the big boys are paying something between 15% and 0%.

Automatic witholding and then giving back just enough at the end of the year for a treat or a 2-day vacation or a really good drunk...... brilliant.

143   FormerAptBroker   2008 Jan 15, 10:56am  

Elamite Says:

> My first wife was a commercial real estate broker but she
> sold high end residential as well (Beverly Hills, Malibu, etc.)
> She said that if a piece of property was on the market for
> more than 30 days with no offers then the asking price was
> simply too high.

Back in the 80’s many brokers did something called “buying listings”. If an apartment was worth $50K/unit most brokers would want to list of for $50K/unit so it would actually sell. Brokers that “bought listings” would promise $55K/unit and actually got a lot of listings. When market values were rising they ended up selling a lot of listings (when values caught up to their asking price at the end of their one year exclusive right to sell period). In a down market like we had in the 90’s (and like we have now) buying listings does not work…

144   FormerAptBroker   2008 Jan 15, 11:04am  

ex-sunnyvale-renter Says:

> Racism is real, it’s this weird idea of multiculturalism,
> level playing field among all the different racial teams,
> that’s pie-in-the-sky.

Most people like to hang out with and work with people that are similar to themselves. It just so happens that many people of the same race have similar traits.

A guy of European decent that was born in Mexico, spoke Spanish, and who was in the US illegally working as a day laborer would hang out with mostly guys of Mexican decent.

A guy of Indian decent who grew up in Atherton and went to Phillips Brooks, Menlo and Stanford would probably hang out with mostly people of European decent.

145   GallopingCheetah   2008 Jan 15, 11:13am  

FAB,

Good point.

146   GallopingCheetah   2008 Jan 15, 12:12pm  

ex-sunnyvale-renter,

I don't really care about what you just said. What I gathered from your rants is that your folks don't care about you. Feeling alienated, you want them to protect you. Since they don't give a damn, you decide to "protect them," hoping for a drastic event to awaken your tribesmen who will then avenge for you. The problems you described could be real. But your solution won't happen. Wrong place, wrong time, wrong demographic makeup, wrong culture, wrong international environment.

In any kind of mass movement, the ultimate losers are always the foot soldiers, flag carriers and bystanders (the mass). Those who incite and lead enjoy the game far more than what they are willing to disclose.

If you have true conviction and are brave, do what you have to do. Don't wait for others, or a depression so that you feel less cowardly among the multitude. Just be a man. It's not that hard.

147   Randy H   2008 Jan 15, 12:35pm  

Are you resurrecting your blog ?

Yes. I'm looking for a couple level headed folks to help me contribute material, and potentially for someone with an eye for aesthetics. I have the unique talent of being able to design the singularly worst user interfaces in the world. If you're interested drop me an email.

148   Malcolm   2008 Jan 15, 12:51pm  

Since we've talked about this before and I am watching it right now I wanted to answer a question that's come up. For ethanol fuels the ratio is 10 to 1 for every 1 unit of fuel it takes to process it, you get 10 units of ethanol.

We'll be able to fully fuel cars with ethanol when we get plug in hybrids on the road with an average of 100 MPG. The other good thing is that it will be made from the entire corn plant.

149   skibum   2008 Jan 15, 12:53pm  

Randy H,

You mentioned a while ago that you were changing the focus of your blog. Please remind me again, what will you be moving towards?

150   Malcolm   2008 Jan 15, 12:59pm  

BAP, I am stunned you are having any trouble at all. Someone just saying they're interested in buying something would attract more agents than a dead carcus attracts flies. I have a couple of suggestions for you. First, unless you are going to make multiple offers on properties (I used to do that with the VA lists, I would just lowball 10 or so off of each sealed bid auction) there is no need to get an agent. You actually allow more flexibility if you can confidently talk to the sellers' agents directly. Do what they do, and make them think you are their friend and just go from one to the next if you don't get the answer you want. Time is on YOUR side. Be open minded and creative, you might even get one willing to give a little cash from the commission. There is a common misconception that it is illegal, but in many cases it is perfectly legal. If you do decide to get an agent of you own try being up front and telling them what you want to do. It doesn't cost you anything to put an ad on craigslist, see who replies to you. Good luck.

151   anonymous   2008 Jan 15, 1:32pm  

FAB - that sounds good, and I've seen examples of it, but it's not really what happens. Not with Black Power Brown Power, Indian Power, Affirmative Action, Minority Perks and all the other stuff written into law.

Don't worry about it, the economy is doing some very interesting things that should make life one hell of a lot more "interesting" in the US, and it's about time.

152   OO   2008 Jan 15, 3:59pm  

A complete meltdown of Hong Kong market tonight, down more than 5%.

Look for a meltdown of Chinese stock market not too far into the future. Chinese A shares cannot be insulated from the outside for too long, when all the slowdown data eventually get reflected in the earning numbers, the spectacular crash landing of the Chinese economy will start.

Got FXP? :-)

153   danville woman   2008 Jan 15, 9:38pm  

OO

Thanks for the updates on the market. The last time you noticed the yen strengthening, I made some money on your observation.

154   CleansingSphere   2008 Jan 15, 10:15pm  

Quick before it's gone.
Kevan Barlow (49ers running back?) is being foreclosed on in Santana Row in San Jose.
http://www.foreclosure.com/listingdetails.html?st=CA&ci=san%20jose&tab=p&cno=085&z=&listingid=9333120
He's a good kid so I feel bad for him.

How long do we wait until there is a celebrity foreclosure thread?

155   Randy H   2008 Jan 15, 10:31pm  

skibum

I'm still figuring that out. Actually, I've just been too busy lately to get things going. I had originally planned to move to a more open format, but I've rethought that since. I think a blog needs a core theme even if discussions tend to wander. This thread has caused me to think maybe the subject of tech entrepreneurship is in needing of some love.

156   CleansingSphere   2008 Jan 15, 11:41pm  

Btw,
Howdy everyone! I've been reading here for years (since before there was a blog or news, just the housing crash page and maybe the rent calculator) and I posted very seldom. Er, um, exactly once before today.
But I've read what all of you have had to say for quite a long time now and I must say you guys made the waiting much more bearable.

Anyway, after the ups and downs of the long wait, doesn't it feel good now that we find ourselves on this side of inevitability?

My FB anecdote:

In 2004 my neighbor moves in next door with his family of 7 (!). He doesn't speak much English, but that's OK since I speak fluent Spanish (I went to univ. in Mexico). We get along fine, I hang out with the family, go to dinner every once in a while, etc.

In 2005 he moves to a house a short walk down the street. They mortgage it under his common law "wife"'s name. The new place costs around 600k.

First I should mention, that they're probably not prime credit material:
There were 7 people living in a 2/1 condo - my neighbor, his "wife", 2 kids and a rotating set of cousins of dubious legal status. They work in a cafeteria at a senior home (x2) and at a car wash (x2). I'd say he's low skilled but his BBQ Arrachera is fantastic so I won't.

Anyway, when he moves to the new place, they make a half ass attempt to sell the place next to mine for WAY over fair market value - I remember how bored that realtor was every sat+sun when there were no visitors at all. The first weekend he was there I was walking from my car and I could see his eyes get big when he saw me walk in his direction, until I walked right by him to my door. A few months later, no more realtor.

So fast forward to 2008. My former next-door neighbor's place is up for auction (trustee's sale), and probably reverted to the lender (I'll have to check when the data comes out). I really doubt he has been making payments for the last 3 years that the place has been vacant since he could barely afford the place when he was there, with 4 incomes combined, and they were paying on a new mortgage.

Last month he stopped by to get something out of the garage and I chatted with him. Guess what? They're asking the lender for permission to short sell the *new* house, which is in his "wife"'s name.

How many months of free rent will he get this time before the lender forces the sale?

It seems lenders have been incredibly reluctant over the last couple of years to take their lumps and force a sale, and that's why I believe the biggest wave of pain is coming up soon as lenders capitulate on distressed properties and REOs.

And I really don't mean to make this a racial thing - I'm just pointing out how insane the lenders were to lend him money and how much my neighbor gamed the system to his advantage.

157   DinOR   2008 Jan 16, 1:12am  

Suck. It. Up!

Get your ("Want to fix the Housing Crisis?" Suck. It. Up!) bumper sticker at www.michellemalkin.com

Too funny! Evidently some of the readers lived on The Other Side of CleansingSphere!

I thought what makes the BBQ Arrachera story so funny is that even in 2005 there were people ALREADY gaming the system! Oh and that it sat vacant for THREE freakin' years! This is something of a nightmare for me as I'd worked off the assumption that all of the "flip, flop and FLY" routine was confined to the east coast BEFORE the subprime meltdown went MSM!

"Low-skilled"!? Pffftt. The guy's a virtuoso!

Flip

Flop

Fly... I don't care if I die...

158   Randy H   2008 Jan 16, 1:49am  

Dear Senator and Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton:

Please go away now.

If I hear you tell me how you're going to raise my taxes to "protect" all those innocent subprime borrowers one more time I think I'll need to check myself into an institution.

At this point, I'll vote for the craziest, looniest, cult-leadin-ist, morality hypocrit-ist whack-a-mole before you so long as s/he agrees to leave the free market alone.

Thank you for your understanding.

Randy H

159   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 2:10am  

Let's hope Hillary loses the primary.

Better yet, let's hope Ron Paul wins the election!

160   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 2:11am  

I have a proposal:

Why don't we tax Democrats progressively all the way to 70% and charge Republicans a flat tax of 15%?

If someone wants more tax, I say let him pay more!

161   DinOR   2008 Jan 16, 2:13am  

"cult-leadin-ist" LOL!

Yeah, don't blame me! (I voted "Uncommitted"!)

I just got a kick out of Michelle saying she would vote for whoever had a "Suck. It. Up!" policy toward subprime borrowers!

162   DinOR   2008 Jan 16, 2:15am  

Peter P,

There are those among us that would insist "that" policy is already in place!

(But I definitely see what you mean)

163   DennisN   2008 Jan 16, 2:15am  

I'm so confused. Don't you have to be already "uncommitted" to check yourself into a loony bin?

164   DinOR   2008 Jan 16, 2:16am  

Evidently they have very crowded looney bins in MI!

165   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 2:17am  

Question:

If Democrats are so good at "helping" poor people how come their strongholds (Detroit, Oakland, DC) tend to be mega-crime-capitals?

166   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 2:22am  

The answer to Peter Ps question would be called racist therefore I wouldn't expect one Peter.

167   DennisN   2008 Jan 16, 2:34am  

Actually the real crowded loonie bins are in Canadian banks.

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