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Protecting Your Savings


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2008 Jan 27, 5:53am   46,946 views  390 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

safe

With the government now mounting a full-scale assault against savers by cutting interest rates, attempting to keep housing prices unreasonably high, and even handing out raw cash (do I hear helicopters?) what can responsible people do to protect what they've earned?

Some options and problems with those options:

  • CD's: fully taxable, low rates (under 4% now), some risk FDIC won't cover bank failures
  • Treasury Bills: no state tax, less risk, but even lower rates (2.5%)
  • Gold: pays no interest, price very hard to predict. Lost value for 20 years after last peak.
  • Stock: falling prices in falling economy as earnings decline
  • Housing: massively overvalued, likely to keep falling for years
  • Commercial property: also seems to be on downside of a bubble
  • Commodities: falling prices as economy slows

One bright point: if you're saving to buy a house, your cash gets more valuable as house prices fall. And you get interest on top of that.

Patrick

#housing

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160   ozajh   2008 Jan 28, 7:56pm  

Ignore my previous comment. I have just reached OO's reply to you and it looks like the direct RBA avenue IS available to non-nationals.

161   Malcolm   2008 Jan 28, 8:32pm  

Good luck BAP.

162   Richmond   2008 Jan 28, 11:35pm  

BAP,

I'm very familiar with your area and the insane crap that people did with their homes with the weekly jaunts to the Homeboy Despot. I looked at a place out in the country some years back and that was suppse to have an indoor pool.

Now, GET THIS------

The livingroom floor was chainsawed out, a hole was dug and lined with a blue tarp, then filled with water. The mold and mildew was as you can imagine.

Another place was nothing more than a superfund site once the meth lab got busted. At that point, I decided to look elswhere.

Of course, the propreties that were in really good condition, and there were many, were out of my price range. I would bet my life that your offer is fair.

Good luck, Bro.

163   justme   2008 Jan 28, 11:47pm  

OO,

Etrade recently stated in a letter to customers that all paid-in-full securities are "customer-owned", which I interpret to mean that they are held "in trust " for you. Whether this is "safe" or not is anyones guess. Cash apparently is different and riskier, especially if it is held in Etrade Bank (via the sweep option) and is bigger than $100k. This is one data point, perhaps others have more.

Too big to fail? Maybe Vanguard and Fidelity. Vanguard assets are again customer owned. In August, after pondering the same question, I pulled some cash out of banks and invested with Vanguard's money market funds, which pays a decent rate (check symbols VMMXX and VCTXX). Of ocurse, all yields are dropping with the Fed's actions.

Not investment advice, just an illustration of what I did.

164   DennisN   2008 Jan 29, 12:03am  

I like today's story "Wanted: Your Toys" that Patrick posted in today's news. It's a Craigslist posting - check it out before it disappears.

That could be me posting it - even the part of being the geek math major.

165   Patrick   2008 Jan 29, 12:23am  

Marin is too far for me, but if some of you also want to meet at the Ferry Building wine bar, that would be fun. It's very BARTable, boatable, and otherwise easy to get to and from without a DUI. And pretty cheap as wine bars go.

Maybe Fri Feb 8th at 5:00pm? It gets very crowded, so good to get there a little early.

166   justme   2008 Jan 29, 1:07am  

Patrick,

I'd be in on that. Marin is a bit far for me as well.

167   HelloKitty   2008 Jan 29, 1:09am  

WOW Mish did a post about this new company called You Walk Away(dot com) and he talked to the guy running it.

They give legal advice about the time frames, non recourse, and shoot a 'dont call me' letter to your lender and they tell you how long you have to live rent free for a 1k fee. awsome little bidness model. i hope they get massive press and help crash the market further faster by helping FB's do the walk. Of course anyone smart can spend two hours on google and figure all that our themselves....but if you have no computer skills its a good investment, it probably beats listening to 'the guy at work' for such advice...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Im planning on posting a flyer for this fabulous company everywhere I want to buy one day and also leaving them on H2's, tahoe's etc at the mall.

I hope they get a billboard on the freeway...people with loooong commutes who are upside down must dream of walking away and renting next to work.

Hopefully this is a new trend. Instead of "Refinance Now - House payments go down again" ads for idiots we can have tons of 'Just Givver Back To Da Bank!" banner ads, that I would love to see. Animated people 'walking away' instead of those obnoxious 'dancing mortgage people'.

168   HARM   2008 Jan 29, 1:22am  

@Patrick,

I'm in, though 6pm would be better for me, given my work schedule.

169   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 1:40am  

"Marin is too far for me"

(The guy goes to AMSTERDAM but Marin is "too far") :)

I know, I know (you didn't have to drive back!

170   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 1:57am  

I"m happy to show up - you guys will have to come up a chartered flight to/from Prescott Municipal Airport, plus all other transportation, hotel, and $200/day for my time.

Yeah yeah, essentially you'll have to PAY me to go back to the BA, even to visit.

171   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 2:23am  

Hello Kitty,

What a HOOT! No kidding, they're an actual company, AND... conveniently located in Carlsbad, CA! (Must be nice offices?) That's up by San Juan Capistrano, right? Maybe the swallows HAVE returned?

172   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 2:24am  

I'll BET YOU MONEY those are subprime guys! I'll just bet you.

But.. but.. how we gonna' make $'s now...?

HEY! I got an idea!

173   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Jan 29, 2:30am  

Relative to "I want your toys".....

The high end luxury pre-owned car market has changed remarkably recently. I've not seen anyone comment on it anywhere, but at the auctions all the high end stuff s series mercs and 7 series bmers and the like is being bought up en masse by foreign nationals and many arabs. It's driving the price up for such models here.

What's interesting about it to me is this analysis: you've got overextended consumers spending retail on the things, taking the massive depreciation hit (helocs?), then liquidating assets for pennies on the dollar, then you've got foreign nationals coming in buying those up using strong currencies, and emptying our market of the good stuff. We are then left with streets full of korea and detroit vehicles. Good luck hoping these same folks will come in and buy up McCrapshaks as well, about the same chance as them buying Ford's and shipping them Dubai.

174   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Jan 29, 2:36am  

lol @ dinOR no doubt the walk biz is former mb's. Someone should call them and find out. That's rich.

175   Richmond   2008 Jan 29, 2:46am  

HelloKitty,

I really like the opening bid price vs. peak price on some of those properties. WOW!

Could 2008 be 1990 on steroids?

176   Randy H   2008 Jan 29, 2:55am  

@ Patrick et. al.

Ferry bldg is a good idea. I'll see if I can make it. High probability. Larkspur Ferry lands right there.

177   Malcolm   2008 Jan 29, 2:55am  

DinOR, Carlsbad is nearer to San Diego. It is just south of Oceanside.

178   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 3:09am  

northernvirginarenter,

Will do. I've been on hold and leaving a lot of voice mail msgs. but I WILL get to the bottom of that. If I let it slide (rattle my cage!) Hey you aren't the same "NOVA" from Ben's Blog back in the day are you? They seemed to have a similar profile/background.

179   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 3:11am  

Oh and don't be silly, (FB's will figure out how to "chop" the Korean and Detroit Iron to Mexico one part-at-a-time!)

180   Patrick   2008 Jan 29, 3:30am  

OK, Feb 8th 5pm at the Ferry Building wine bar it is! Especially glad Randy H doesn't mind the change of venue. So far him, me, justme, and HARM. Weird to put it that way. HARM, no problem arriving at 6pm. I'll try to hold down a chair for you.

ex-sunnyvale-renter, sorry, the patrick.net budget won't yet cover the charter flight, or pretty much anything else.

181   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 3:39am  

I am sorry but I will not be able to make the blog party next week. :(

I have met all but justme (weird to put it this way too). Perhaps we have have another chance?

182   Randy H   2008 Jan 29, 3:52am  

I'm thinking, given the real party is just starting, we should set up some kind of standing bi-monthly or monthly drinking spot. The ferry bldg is good because we'll be surrounded by lots of bubble-buyers homedebtor types, who we can loudly annoy with our boisterous Schadenfreude.

183   HARM   2008 Jan 29, 4:01am  

@Bap33,

$565k to $130k? Now *that's* what I call an insulting Lowball offer! Best of luck to you!

184   Paul189   2008 Jan 29, 4:04am  

I bought Canadian 1 year t-notes at a yield of 4.30% and you get interest in Loonies instead of crappy USD.

185   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 29, 4:09am  

HelloKitty and DinOR :

This is definitely WOW. And I thought the blogs are a step ahead of others. I mean we just started discussing this jingle mail a few weeks back. These guys already have a running business. Once again, WOW.

Ain't this a great country or what ? Of all the things that have been happening in the housing bubble, this definitely is one of THE most positive things. The quicker we all write off our bad debts, the better for all of us.

186   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 4:22am  

StuckInBA,

WOW is right, and the web-site design says "opportunist" to the "t". Right down to the stock photos of not just (relieved) but ecstatically, deliriously happy former FB's packin' they shit up to bag ass yo!

Within a week they'll have a companion site called "Stickin'totheman.com". Lord, and what are they offering for a grand? To stop all the harrassing phone calls while you live "rent free"? (Heard of caller I.D?) Oh and what would their considered opinion be on renting a place now dat' yo credit be sh!t?

187   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 4:29am  

Administrator - Yeah, I know ..... wish I could make it.... I actually like the BA, but not as a member of the slave class. If I can get my street-performer skills together though I'm really of a mind to move back up there. Yes, I am serious about this, I got so sick of being the hardworking small business owner, working my ass off to make everyone ELSE rich, ending up more in debt every month, that I started hanging out with street musicians and balloon-twister types and realized, Hey, these guys have like NO overhead. They're all ex-techies! They're all far happier than they were in the belly of the dying whale that is tech. All they have to do is come up with $500 or so a month rent somewhere, and their time is their own! They probably make that in a weekend! Their only "boss" is the customer and the customer is pretty easy to make happy, really. I drew some Indian guy's kid and I'm willing to get that drawing is framed and on their wall right next to the picture of Ganesh - and will be for years. The freaky-artist-guy in Palo Alto whom I drew probably saved my drawing, and I even got one of his crappy drawings in return, which I donated to the city via one of its trash cans lol. Oh, the Indian guy gave me $5 for what was really just a few minutes' work, and frankly it was fun, even drawing his little purple Yahoo! hat.

I have the drawing skills in the bag. What was a curse will be a lifesaving asset, it seems. But I'm also working on learning an instrument, working on trumpet/cornet but if I really am not getting anywhere in a year, I'm going to play the sax. Good street instrument, that.

So, gimme a year or so, I'll like as not be able to join you guys for a martoonie yet.

188   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 4:34am  

www.youwalkaway.com man what a site! They offer a "kit" how can you go wrong?

That site deserves some serious spammage. I mean, 60 Minutes, the favorite show of the blue-hair crowd, has given its blessing to "the long walk", so yeah...

Jingle mail, jingle mail.... jingle all the way!

189   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 4:48am  

They'll probably be hugely successful. This is where the FB Dream lives on! Live without making (real) payments. No deficiency against you and they can help you get that nasty foreclosure off your credit report and back in a home in a jiffy!

Hugely successful.

That is until the Feds shut them down.

190   HeadSet   2008 Jan 29, 4:52am  

That is until the Feds shut them down.

Then the "torch" business makes rapid growth?

191   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 5:01am  

Jingle mail, jingle mail…. jingle all the way!

LOL :lol:

192   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Jan 29, 5:02am  

@dinOR

No, was never a poster at Bens. Longtime lurker here and other bubble places, might have posted here a couple times years ago under a different and long forgotten screenname.

193   Richmond   2008 Jan 29, 5:05am  

Youwalkaway.com

I like how the people are grinning ear to ear, like they are on cloud 9. They look like they are moving into their brand new home, not pooping on their lender. That's just too good.

194   Patrick   2008 Jan 29, 5:19am  

@Paul:

Where and how did you buy your Canadian T-notes?

Schwab does not seem to offer that option to me...

195   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 5:21am  

yeah I say it's crossing a line to see how long you can live in your place for free. I say, move on out to a rental and let the place start decaying right away! Don't put that 18-inch hole in the roof as advocated in "The World Without Us", just leave some windows open just a crack, make sure there's a cat door so install one if you don't have one already, maybe put in that pond in the backyard if you haven't already, they're cheap to install if you do it yourself and it's nice to the animals like frogs. ..... jug-o-rum! jug-o-rum!

196   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 29, 5:22am  

I like how the people are grinning ear to ear, like they are on cloud 9. They look like they are moving into their brand new home, not pooping on their lender. That’s just too good.

The photos are simply priceless. It would be very ironic if these photos were simply copied from some website belonging to a builder. All smiles while buying and now all smiles while foreclosing.

197   justme   2008 Jan 29, 5:26am  

Peter P,

I haven't met anyone at all! Maybe you and I get a chance another time, I think we live not to far from each other ;).

By the way, how does this work? Do we wear secretive alias name tags? How do find I think I've seen a picture of Patrick somewhere.....oh yeah, on the beach in the Netherlands. Maybe that will do the trick.

198   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 5:26am  

"They look like they are moving into their brand new home" LOL!

That's what struck odd me too? This must be the financial equivelant to Valtrex (TM)?

"There's no known cure for your condition but Stifftrex (TM) can make life more manageable when outbreaks do occur and clinical studies show that Stifftrex (TM) users have fewer outbreaks. Remember, even when using Stifftrex (TM) it is still possible to pass it to your "partner".

199   HelloKitty   2008 Jan 29, 5:27am  

I dont see how the feds can shut em down. George Bush wants you to walk away!

Thats why he signed the 'walk away scott free' aka 'dont tase me bro' law recently. Forgiven debt is not taxable. Seriously why didnt I think of this idea? Its sooo simple. Also I likke the foreclosure bus tours very good to scare the sense into home sellers. At some point most people will spot a foreclosure bus tour.... very good for the 'waiting for dream price' crowd.

Truly this is shaping up to be the largest bust evar. Even SDCIA.com has gone bearish on RE. Its a pretty good site.

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