patrick.net

@Paul:

Where and how did you buy your Canadian T-notes?

Schwab does not seem to offer that option to me...

yeah I say it's crossing a line to see how long you can live in your place for free. I say, move on out to a rental and let the place start decaying right away! Don't put that 18-inch hole in the roof as advocated in "The World Without Us", just leave some windows open just a crack, make sure there's a cat door so install one if you don't have one already, maybe put in that pond in the backyard if you haven't already, they're cheap to install if you do it yourself and it's nice to the animals like frogs. ..... jug-o-rum! jug-o-rum!

I like how the people are grinning ear to ear, like they are on cloud 9. They look like they are moving into their brand new home, not pooping on their lender. That’s just too good.

The photos are simply priceless. It would be very ironic if these photos were simply copied from some website belonging to a builder. All smiles while buying and now all smiles while foreclosing.

Peter P,

I haven't met anyone at all! Maybe you and I get a chance another time, I think we live not to far from each other ;).

By the way, how does this work? Do we wear secretive alias name tags? How do find I think I've seen a picture of Patrick somewhere.....oh yeah, on the beach in the Netherlands. Maybe that will do the trick.

"They look like they are moving into their brand new home" LOL!

That's what struck odd me too? This must be the financial equivelant to Valtrex (TM)?

"There's no known cure for your condition but Stifftrex (TM) can make life more manageable when outbreaks do occur and clinical studies show that Stifftrex (TM) users have fewer outbreaks. Remember, even when using Stifftrex (TM) it is still possible to pass it to your "partner".

I dont see how the feds can shut em down. George Bush wants you to walk away!

Thats why he signed the 'walk away scott free' aka 'dont tase me bro' law recently. Forgiven debt is not taxable. Seriously why didnt I think of this idea? Its sooo simple. Also I likke the foreclosure bus tours very good to scare the sense into home sellers. At some point most people will spot a foreclosure bus tour.... very good for the 'waiting for dream price' crowd.

Truly this is shaping up to be the largest bust evar. Even SDCIA.com has gone bearish on RE. Its a pretty good site.

I haven’t met anyone at all! Maybe you and I get a chance another time, I think we live not to far from each other ;).

Sure! I live in Sunnyvale.

Do we wear secretive alias name tags?

Like attracts like. You will automagically find the others.

Oh man. That site for some odd reason reminded me of William Hung.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Hung

Maybe because everything about them (the "business" and the "singer") is so wrong and still right at the same time.

Hello Kitty,

Again I'm trying to keep this in the "one-day-at-a-time" perspective. When that was originally being debated we were still deep in denial thinking things were "contained" and that this would only apply to a limited number of people. Once it becomes more prevalent I think fewer will "qualify".

WalkAway makes some pretty lofty claims in their FAQ's but for now they can hide behind "if you qualify" for their School for Scoundrels.

ex-sunnyvale-renter Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
"www.youwalkaway.com man what a site! They offer a “kit” how can you go wrong?
That site deserves some "

I'm going to apply. I think that would be the perfect company for me. It is just down the street from me. I'd love to have a job, any job relating to the real estate crash. That would be like getting paid to post here!

If you click the 'foreclosure news' link on uwalk site it quotes the Merrill artilce about 'housing prices to frefall in 2008'. AWSOME.

Basically they are trying to destroy all home (so you decide to walk and buy their kit). I love them guys. Yes Im sure they are ex mortgage brokers. I can imagine how nice it would for them to call up the old clients to sell them the UWalkAway kit..."Hey dont worry about that reset and hard prepay I stuck you with....buy my WALK AWAY kit" its beautiful. sweet deal indeed.

It reminds me of the tv movie with David Schwimmer called "breasst men" he gets rich doing silicon implants....then gets rich again takin em out.

Basically they are trying to destroy all home (so you decide to walk and buy their kit). I love them guys.

They deserve a Peter P Misanthropy Award.

I've a good friend who is considering doing the multiple walkaway, let's call it the gumpwalk. Several rental houses in Ohio, another in DC, and a lovely Florida condo. He has two other properties free and clear to retire into, with the help of some liberated capital from cashout financings. So, that's 5 used houses about to begin the foreclosure process from one single individual. Of course he did not heed my warnings in 2004 2005 of a bubble and the risks he was taking, and counsel to sell at that time, his response the usual "they are not making anymore real estate" and "prices never go down". It was never his intention to game the system in any way, and I know him to be of good character.

In the end, clearly his best move is to walk at this point. Non-recourse all, with the exception of a single smallish HELOC. In the end, he comes out of it totally fine, a credit blemish which really does not matter to his quality of life or significantly limit his options in any way. He is leaning towards 5 sets of keys going back, it is clearly his best option. He has retained counsel, who concurs. Four of the Five are currently upside down, and all five are negative cash-flow. And of incidental interest, in aggregate the five appraisals at most recent financings come in at almost exactly double what in his opinion current fair market value would bring. Four have good renters in them, the Fla condo is empty.

If this is a typical profile of the small amateur real estate investor who was active through the past 5 years, what are we in for in the near future? We truly have not seen anything yet. How many more late stage Casey's are out there, those whose high net worth has allowed them to continue the appearance of solvency and who now understand where the market is heading?

The credit blemish is in no way a significant enough downside to keep sheeple paying the mortgages, a foreclosure on your record and "ruined" credit is truly no big deal.

It's all going to be quite a show.

OMG PeeterPee you live in Slummyvale? Where, can I ask? I mean, general areas....... do'nt need to give your address out on the series of.... TUBES!

94086 ZIP code. Between 101 and El Camino.

To be fair, Sunnyvale is not an unsafe city.

"that's 5 used houses about to begin the foreclosure process from one single individual"

(The Multiplier Effect, in reverse)

I didn't notice the link to the David Rosenberg report from Merrill... (but that's the one "I" would've picked) :)

Now that I think of it, these guys may have some connection to the mortgage industry but to be actual MB's would be too close for my comfort. Especially if they found any client lists or data from their previous employers/businesses.

northernvirginiarenter Says:
In the end, he comes out of it totally fine, a credit blemish which really does not matter to his quality of life or significantly limit his options in any way.

I feel depressed knowing how all these specuvestors and FBs can just walk away like that. How come they don't get punished for their financial mistakes? :(
I don't think my TDAmeritrade is gonna be remotely as generous on the margins if I lost on trades.

How come they don’t get punished for their financial mistakes?

LOL :lol:

This is America.

There is one situation where walking away may not be best option.

Gubbermint employee's with secret clearance cannot have bad credit or they lose the clearance (and the job). Also they cant use drugs, be alcoholics, openly cheat on wife. Supposedly all this makes them high risk for treason (selling nucliear secrets for cash type of treason!)

Apparently in the last downturn in CA lots of unhappy upside down military DOD types paid on the upside down mortage the whole 12 years. But thier retirement kicks ass!

A BK may also get you disbarred if you are a lawyer (same with a DUI). I know it will prevent you from BECOMING a lawyer in CA even if you pass the bar exam.

A BK may also get you disbarred if you are a lawyer (same with a DUI).

Foreclosure is not the same as BK though.

PeeterPee - I was in 94085. In one of the huge McSlums on Mathilda to be exact. No, not really unsafe - the number of actual murders and shootings is rather low, I think. And Slummyvale has tons of cops - all the firemen cross-trained as cops. They need those cops, as I'm sure you know, hearing sirens and the occasional burst of full-auto fire at night. But because they have 'em, they do manage to keep a lid on things fairly well.

I think I'd have formed a more favorable view of the place if I'd lived somewhere along Olive Avenue, nearer to the police station and library and all that. It seems like it was a more peaceful area. I was even thinking the area by the library may be good for musical instrument practice, but there are homeless who sleep there and would you go play in a stranger's living room?

Cut the prices of rents in half and the housing down by 75% and Slummyvale would be worth it.

But because they have ‘em, they do manage to keep a lid on things fairly well.

Well, at least it is working...

Sunnyvale is an uninspiring place though.

Where and how did you buy your Canadian T-notes?

http://www.laffertyny.com/Gold.htm

@hellokitty

That's a good point, I wonder how the security clearance standards will change over coming years relative to financials. Arguably and logically, a foreclosure blemish and sound personal financial statement beats an upsidedown strapped debtbeat relative to risk. I have confidence those in charge of such things will do the sensible thing, they are smart folks. And as it happens, the 5 walkaway fellow does have an active TS. In DC area, every third person you run into maintains a clearance with State, DHS, Langley, NRO, NSA and everyone else around. It's something that never occurred to me that this might possible help hold prices in this area, it won't hold back the flood but could actually be an influencing factor.

I'm so tired of hearing, "this area is different" due to the massive government spend and presence. Now folks are counting on the change of administration to generate a new influx of residents and transactions.

@Hugel

I feel depressed knowing how all these specuvestors and FBs can just walk away like that. How come they don’t get punished for their financial mistakes?

It is mildly irritating, especially after years of being on the receiving end of years of photos of their posh vacations and lifestyle.

It is mildly irritating, especially after years of being on the receiving end of years of photos of their posh vacations and lifestyle.

It is your fault that you did not drink the kool-aid. ;)

@peter p

It is your fault that you did not drink the kool-aid.

Yes, I should have taken the other pill. It's makes me consider the ethics of the whole thing, if I could do it all over, just what would I do?

Is it more ethical to buy 5-10 houses in 2000-2001 finance out equity and spend it on high end hookers and cabernets, then do the walk and stick it to the banksters OR to sell my house at the top in 2005 to some unsuspecting kool-aid drinker and have it wipe that family out financially, emotionally traumatize them, and the banksters still take a hit. Hmmmm.

Are economic decisions necessarily moral decisions?

As mish has indicated, lots of consumers are about to make a business or economic decision, not a moral one. The godfather ethic is about to overtake the walk away from debt stigma.

As mish has indicated, lots of consumers are about to make a business or economic decision, not a moral one.

That is reasonable. In many cases, moral decisions are indeed exploitable economic inefficiencies.

PeeterPee - Indeed, Slummyvale is an uninspiring place. I chose it because the rents were reasonable (for a short while) and it was located central to where all the electronic surplus places. Both of those are "was" though, since rents are going up 20% a year and the surplus places are all going out of business.

One thing about the Peninsula though, is that there's at least one farmer's market or swapmeet every day of the week, year-round. A skilled face-doodler or street musicians can make out alright there. I instigated my violin teacher to start playing at the Mountain View farmer's market on sundays, and last I've known, he still is. He makes GOOD money too. Classically trained, so he knows a lot of classical stuff, even if he has to look at the printed music to play it - meh. I'm not sure how well he can play by ear, my problem was reading the "bugs" and NOT playing by ear, but by Gum he had me playing off of that music. Then my financial world imploded and the rented fiddle had to go back. I think there's really a good living to be made out there, I was just an idiot to try it in tech.

Besides Gypsy'ing it, there are some of the darndest things open to someone who will do the work. For instance, there's a 6-month wait to get a sign done in Palo Alto because there aren't enough sign makers. And couriers supposedly get $20 an hour. And working for CalTrain, look on their site, some real money there. More than you'll ever make in tech.

But Sunnyvale's like most of the BA is pretty featureless, bland, and yeah, uninspiring.

But Sunnyvale’s like most of the BA is pretty featureless, bland, and yeah, uninspiring.

Somehow I like the Milpitas hills near Spring Valley.

DinOR Says:
[re: youwalkaway.com] Hugely successful. That is until the Feds shut them down.

Why would the Feds shut them down?

After all, aren't the banksters trying to stick their crap to the taxpayer and do their own version of "youwalkaway"?

Wasn't Mozilo trying to get conforming limits raised so Countrycide (tm) could shovel all their refuse to Fannie/Freddie and do the "youwalkaway" dance as well?

Didn't the POTUS go on air last night and brag about his own "youwalkaway" plan for the banksters?

POTUS? Are you a Clancy fan?

I have been arguing this on Zillow some today with, of all things, a bunch of self righteous real estate agents.

My point was that since we've turned HOUSES into INVESTMENTS and started treating normal folks like balance sheets, we now shouldn't be surprised if those people start making decisions like businesses instead of sunday school teachers.

We can't have it both ways.

But what was really telling for me was how so many agents started pointing fingers at those terrible McDebtors. For shame, they should be punished.

Ya ya. What about all the agents who had their hand in the till the entire time? Perhaps that's why they're caterwauling so loudly? To cover up their own sins?

And while I am at it, isn't the Fed itself pulling a Youwalkaway by devaluing the dollar that we foolish sentimentalists regarded as a source of value?

F*ck the whole lot. I am going to print out the Youwalkaway homepage and leave copies of it everywhere I go. Plaster the Bay Area with it until every man, woman and in-between has committed the URL to memory...

%s/"source of value"/"store of value"/g

@Randy

Perhaps that’s why they’re caterwauling so loudly? To cover up their own sins?

Agreed.

The mass walkaway is coming to a theatre near us, sooner than I was surmising last year. This thinking, "it's a business decision" will propagate, and the stigma is gone. This spring the pricing denial stage will erode, and when many milliions realize how much better off they will be posting the keys. Holy cow. This is the next stage before price capitulation.

What's needed is a cool logo of a little man walking out of a house then the Youwalkaway url and put it on a sticker.

The BA thing is to put stickers like this on buildings and stop light poles etc.

Put the logo online here for people to do stuff with.....

They already have such a logo (animated) on their website.