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Protecting Your Savings


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2008 Jan 27, 5:53am   46,869 views  390 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

safe

With the government now mounting a full-scale assault against savers by cutting interest rates, attempting to keep housing prices unreasonably high, and even handing out raw cash (do I hear helicopters?) what can responsible people do to protect what they've earned?

Some options and problems with those options:

  • CD's: fully taxable, low rates (under 4% now), some risk FDIC won't cover bank failures
  • Treasury Bills: no state tax, less risk, but even lower rates (2.5%)
  • Gold: pays no interest, price very hard to predict. Lost value for 20 years after last peak.
  • Stock: falling prices in falling economy as earnings decline
  • Housing: massively overvalued, likely to keep falling for years
  • Commercial property: also seems to be on downside of a bubble
  • Commodities: falling prices as economy slows

One bright point: if you're saving to buy a house, your cash gets more valuable as house prices fall. And you get interest on top of that.

Patrick

#housing

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213   DennisN   2008 Jan 29, 6:45am  

A BK may also get you disbarred if you are a lawyer (same with a DUI). I know it will prevent you from BECOMING a lawyer in CA even if you pass the bar exam.

214   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 6:47am  

A BK may also get you disbarred if you are a lawyer (same with a DUI).

Foreclosure is not the same as BK though.

215   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 6:56am  

PeeterPee - I was in 94085. In one of the huge McSlums on Mathilda to be exact. No, not really unsafe - the number of actual murders and shootings is rather low, I think. And Slummyvale has tons of cops - all the firemen cross-trained as cops. They need those cops, as I'm sure you know, hearing sirens and the occasional burst of full-auto fire at night. But because they have 'em, they do manage to keep a lid on things fairly well.

I think I'd have formed a more favorable view of the place if I'd lived somewhere along Olive Avenue, nearer to the police station and library and all that. It seems like it was a more peaceful area. I was even thinking the area by the library may be good for musical instrument practice, but there are homeless who sleep there and would you go play in a stranger's living room?

Cut the prices of rents in half and the housing down by 75% and Slummyvale would be worth it.

216   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 7:01am  

But because they have ‘em, they do manage to keep a lid on things fairly well.

Well, at least it is working...

Sunnyvale is an uninspiring place though.

217   Paul189   2008 Jan 29, 7:03am  

Where and how did you buy your Canadian T-notes?

Schwab does not seem to offer that option to me…

http://www.laffertyny.com/Gold.htm

218   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Jan 29, 7:11am  

@hellokitty

That's a good point, I wonder how the security clearance standards will change over coming years relative to financials. Arguably and logically, a foreclosure blemish and sound personal financial statement beats an upsidedown strapped debtbeat relative to risk. I have confidence those in charge of such things will do the sensible thing, they are smart folks. And as it happens, the 5 walkaway fellow does have an active TS. In DC area, every third person you run into maintains a clearance with State, DHS, Langley, NRO, NSA and everyone else around. It's something that never occurred to me that this might possible help hold prices in this area, it won't hold back the flood but could actually be an influencing factor.

I'm so tired of hearing, "this area is different" due to the massive government spend and presence. Now folks are counting on the change of administration to generate a new influx of residents and transactions.

@Hugel

I feel depressed knowing how all these specuvestors and FBs can just walk away like that. How come they don’t get punished for their financial mistakes?

It is mildly irritating, especially after years of being on the receiving end of years of photos of their posh vacations and lifestyle.

219   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 7:14am  

It is mildly irritating, especially after years of being on the receiving end of years of photos of their posh vacations and lifestyle.

It is your fault that you did not drink the kool-aid. ;)

220   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Jan 29, 7:33am  

@peter p

It is your fault that you did not drink the kool-aid.

Yes, I should have taken the other pill. It's makes me consider the ethics of the whole thing, if I could do it all over, just what would I do?

Is it more ethical to buy 5-10 houses in 2000-2001 finance out equity and spend it on high end hookers and cabernets, then do the walk and stick it to the banksters OR to sell my house at the top in 2005 to some unsuspecting kool-aid drinker and have it wipe that family out financially, emotionally traumatize them, and the banksters still take a hit. Hmmmm.

221   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 7:48am  

Are economic decisions necessarily moral decisions?

222   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Jan 29, 7:56am  

As mish has indicated, lots of consumers are about to make a business or economic decision, not a moral one. The godfather ethic is about to overtake the walk away from debt stigma.

223   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 7:58am  

As mish has indicated, lots of consumers are about to make a business or economic decision, not a moral one.

That is reasonable. In many cases, moral decisions are indeed exploitable economic inefficiencies.

224   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 8:01am  

PeeterPee - Indeed, Slummyvale is an uninspiring place. I chose it because the rents were reasonable (for a short while) and it was located central to where all the electronic surplus places. Both of those are "was" though, since rents are going up 20% a year and the surplus places are all going out of business.

One thing about the Peninsula though, is that there's at least one farmer's market or swapmeet every day of the week, year-round. A skilled face-doodler or street musicians can make out alright there. I instigated my violin teacher to start playing at the Mountain View farmer's market on sundays, and last I've known, he still is. He makes GOOD money too. Classically trained, so he knows a lot of classical stuff, even if he has to look at the printed music to play it - meh. I'm not sure how well he can play by ear, my problem was reading the "bugs" and NOT playing by ear, but by Gum he had me playing off of that music. Then my financial world imploded and the rented fiddle had to go back. I think there's really a good living to be made out there, I was just an idiot to try it in tech.

Besides Gypsy'ing it, there are some of the darndest things open to someone who will do the work. For instance, there's a 6-month wait to get a sign done in Palo Alto because there aren't enough sign makers. And couriers supposedly get $20 an hour. And working for CalTrain, look on their site, some real money there. More than you'll ever make in tech.

But Sunnyvale's like most of the BA is pretty featureless, bland, and yeah, uninspiring.

225   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 8:07am  

But Sunnyvale’s like most of the BA is pretty featureless, bland, and yeah, uninspiring.

Somehow I like the Milpitas hills near Spring Valley.

226   SP   2008 Jan 29, 8:56am  

DinOR Says:
[re: youwalkaway.com] Hugely successful. That is until the Feds shut them down.

Why would the Feds shut them down?

After all, aren't the banksters trying to stick their crap to the taxpayer and do their own version of "youwalkaway"?

Wasn't Mozilo trying to get conforming limits raised so Countrycide (tm) could shovel all their refuse to Fannie/Freddie and do the "youwalkaway" dance as well?

Didn't the POTUS go on air last night and brag about his own "youwalkaway" plan for the banksters?

227   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 8:59am  

POTUS? Are you a Clancy fan?

228   Randy H   2008 Jan 29, 9:16am  

I have been arguing this on Zillow some today with, of all things, a bunch of self righteous real estate agents.

My point was that since we've turned HOUSES into INVESTMENTS and started treating normal folks like balance sheets, we now shouldn't be surprised if those people start making decisions like businesses instead of sunday school teachers.

We can't have it both ways.

But what was really telling for me was how so many agents started pointing fingers at those terrible McDebtors. For shame, they should be punished.

Ya ya. What about all the agents who had their hand in the till the entire time? Perhaps that's why they're caterwauling so loudly? To cover up their own sins?

229   SP   2008 Jan 29, 9:33am  

And while I am at it, isn't the Fed itself pulling a Youwalkaway by devaluing the dollar that we foolish sentimentalists regarded as a source of value?

F*ck the whole lot. I am going to print out the Youwalkaway homepage and leave copies of it everywhere I go. Plaster the Bay Area with it until every man, woman and in-between has committed the URL to memory...

230   SP   2008 Jan 29, 9:34am  

%s/"source of value"/"store of value"/g

231   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Jan 29, 9:55am  

@Randy

Perhaps that’s why they’re caterwauling so loudly? To cover up their own sins?

Agreed.

The mass walkaway is coming to a theatre near us, sooner than I was surmising last year. This thinking, "it's a business decision" will propagate, and the stigma is gone. This spring the pricing denial stage will erode, and when many milliions realize how much better off they will be posting the keys. Holy cow. This is the next stage before price capitulation.

232   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 10:18am  

What's needed is a cool logo of a little man walking out of a house then the Youwalkaway url and put it on a sticker.

The BA thing is to put stickers like this on buildings and stop light poles etc.

Put the logo online here for people to do stuff with.....

233   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 10:45am  

They already have such a logo (animated) on their website.

234   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 10:49am  

Cool.

235   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 11:35am  

Good news: McCain won Florida
Bad news: Clinton won Florida

236   PermaRenter   2008 Jan 29, 11:51am  

I joined Yahoo in 2006 and could not stay for more than five months. This 1000 layoff is too low in my opinion. They should have layed off at least 2500.

====
Yahoo to Lay Off 1,000 Workers
Yahoo's 4th-Quarter Profit Drops 23 Percent; Company to Lay Off Up to 1,000 Workers

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Yahoo Inc.'s financial funk deepened at the end of 2007, prompting the slumping Internet icon to draw up plans to lay off as many as 1,000 workers.

The Sunnyvale-based company disclosed the upcoming 7 percent reduction in its 14,300-employee work force Tuesday while reviewing a 23 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit and a cautious 2008 outlook. The bad news sent Yahoo shares skidding to their lowest levels in more than four years.

In a prepared statement, Yahoo Chief Executive Jerry Yang warned of looming "headwinds," indicating that the company's tortuous turnaround efforts aren't likely to pay off this year.

"I'm surprised by how slowly they seem to be moving," said Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Derek Brown. "Yahoo still has quite a bit of work ahead."

Yahoo shares dropped $2.09, or more than 10 percent, in extended trading Tuesday after finishing the regular session at $20.81, up 3 cents. The company's market value has plunged more than 50 percent since the end of 2005, wiping out $35 billion in shareholder wealth.

237   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 12:21pm  

Why could you not stay for more than 5 months?

238   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 1:07pm  

Speaking of high tech bombs, Ebay's shot themselves in the foot, apparently at chest level.... http://chatboards.ebay.com/chat.jsp?forum=1&thread=2

239   MCM   2008 Jan 29, 2:44pm  

If you did not own a home in the last 5 years, and are moderately in debt, then you are in great shape right now from a moral and fiscal standpoint.

Moral standpoint: You did not participate or contribute in any way to the current fiasco.
Fiscal standpoint: You are not losing value of savings due the declining dollar, and your debt is actually decreasing as the dollar declines.

240   OO   2008 Jan 29, 3:05pm  

I concur with PermaRenter, everyone I know who worked at Yahoo hated the company so much.

I think they should have let go at least 3000.

241   ozajh   2008 Jan 29, 4:19pm  

@Peter P,

Good news, McCain won Florida.
Bad news, Clinton won Florida.

Good news (for anti-Clinton folks), Clinton got zero delegates from the win.

242   SP   2008 Jan 29, 4:38pm  

Asian markets were moderately down, and Europe is falling on UBS news.

This, plus the rumored bond insurer downgrades, should give Bendover Ben another good cover to cut rates tomorrow... at least 25 points, but could be 50? I mean, at this point, who is counting anymore...

243   HelloKitty   2008 Jan 29, 6:42pm  

YouWalkAway has thier shite together.

when you google 'walk away' they are #1 result (paid).

I bet that walk away kit is useful to convince ones reluctant spouse to walk away. I wanna see a you tube parody of the 'suzanne researched it' only with 'you walk away researched it'.

8 months mortgage free is a LOT of dough @5k per month=40k.
Now add in a year of property taxes not paid (they are already delinquent so 1 year is reasonable)= 8k more.

If they strip the house and sell cabinets etc =3k more.

50k easy of savings.

Anyway its nice to see CA returning to its normal state....recession, budget deficits, high unemployment and upside down homeowners everywhere. Thats the CA i grew up in. The 'everyone is rich' CA totally sucks-2 waits at restaraunts.... For some reason its never normal here, its a feast or famine state.

244   SP   2008 Jan 29, 11:34pm  

Hellokitty said:
Anyway its nice to see CA returning to its normal state….recession, budget deficits, high unemployment and upside down homeowners everywhere.

It is going to be quite a shock for a lot of people. The millions who arrived in the tech gold-rush since 1996 have only seen the boom. The New Paradigm shit. While driving around, when I point out strip-malls that used to be boarded-up in '92, they look at me like I am talking about unicorns and leprechauns.

Jeebus on a stick, this is going to be a wild ride.

245   SP   2008 Jan 29, 11:40pm  

Going back to the original thread topic, are there _any_ banks besides BofA into which one could diversify cash holdings with some confidence?

Citi, Wamu, WellsFargo, all look kind of exposed to problems.

Among credit unions, TechFed seems okay (anyone disagree?), but is there anything else that is viable?

246   Claire   2008 Jan 29, 11:59pm  

We use CommonWealth Central Credit Union (mainly for credit card and car loans when needed - they do checking accounts and mortgages too) - but I have not bothered to check their financial footing.

They gave us a car loan when we needed one and even lowered the rates after a few months when we enquired - of course this was 5 years ago now.

247   HelloKitty   2008 Jan 30, 12:01am  

I work in tech and almost everyone came to CA in the last 10 years even a few white guys from FO.

Although some russians came in early 90's after the soviet crash, they were early birds but missed the late 80's boom times, came in early slump period.

There are so few 'native californians' left that we should be granted special permission to run casinos out of our upside McMansions and/or shitty rental. Thats a great use for 5000 sq feet of home - get some revenue to pay all the state employee pensions.

248   HelloKitty   2008 Jan 30, 12:02am  

I work in tech and almost everyone came to CA in the last 10 years even a few white guys from FO.

Although some russians came in early 90’s after the soviet crash, they were early birds but missed the late 80’s boom times, came in early slump period.

There are so few ‘native californians’ left that we should be granted special permission to run ca$ino$ out of our upside McMansions and/or shitty rental. Thats a great use for 5000 sq feet of home - get some revenue to pay all the state employee pensions.

249   justme   2008 Jan 30, 12:12am  

HelloKitty,

Seems to me that California always has been a pyramid scheme, more so than the rest of the country.

250   DinOR   2008 Jan 30, 12:30am  

SP,

If BK atty's can have their mug on the side of a city bus why NOT YouWalkAway!? I agree, and as Randy points out w/ homes sold as investments there shouldn't be any surprises here.

Do they have a hit-counter on their site?

251   DinOR   2008 Jan 30, 1:03am  

Evidently "walking away" also includes pets. Just sick.

http://breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8UFOH980&show_article=1&catnum=0

252   DennisN   2008 Jan 30, 1:10am  

There are so few ‘native californians’ left that we should be granted special permission to run ca$ino$ out of our upside McMansions and/or shitty rental.

When I was in public schools back in the 1960's, my fellow students were always amazed that BOTH of my grandparents lived all their lives in the BA. To them, "going to see grandparents" involved getting on a plane and flying to the East Coast. I'm sure we 5th and 6th generation Californians are very much in a tiny minority.

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