patrick.net

City of San Jose historical population
Year Population
1980 629,246
1970 459,913
1960 204,196
1950 95,280
1940 68,457
1930 57,651
1920 39,642
1910 28,946
1900 21,500
1890 18,060
1880 12,567
1870 9,089

Arlington County Virginia is endeavoring to pass new legislation that would amend zoning to allow multi-family dwellings in current single family areas, faciliating the breaking up of a single large house into multiple "small houses". This to increase "affordability". It would also allow conversions of garages to dwellings, and the erection of stand-alone structures on properties as secondary dwellings. This is a rather big deal in the area, will be interesting to see if it is able to pass council.

Coming soon to a theatre near you.

DennisN Says:

> I’m sure we 5th and 6th generation Californians
> are very much in a tiny minority.

Before gold was discovered in 1848 there were less than 14,000 white men and women in the state.

If you want to hang out with 5th and 6th generation Californians whose relatives came here in the 1840’s you can join:
http://www.californiapioneers.org/

If you want to hang out with 5th and 6th generation Californians whose relatives came here in the 1940’s to work in the shipyards you can go to the housing projects in Richmond, Marin City and Hunters Point.

"Coming soon"

Portland already allows building "mother-in-law" apts. on existing home lots. You have to apply for it and many have. I believe though you can't sell it seperately. High density rulez yo!

HelloKitty Says:
There are so few ‘native californians’ left.

I don't know what a native californian is - the longest I have ever been in one place my entire life is in the Bay Area. I have been moved around so much that I don't even know whether I am a native anywhere. Not complaining though, it was an interesting life.

Although I was relatively sheltered in low-level academia, '91-'93 was a bad time economy-wise. But here is the funny thing - it was actually a _better_ life than the phony "boom" since '97... there seemed to be fewer arseholes in the recessionary times (maybe it is just rose-tinted nostalgia). Now, every other guy seems to be a Class-A sphincter.

It's not clear exactly when certain of my relatives got to CA simply because of lack of official documents. The earliest relative for whom I have a government-issued document showing when she got to CA (death certificate) is my great-great-grandmother Anna Cook. She came out as a single woman in 1862 via the Oregon/California trail. But it seems certain the man she married was in CA for a long time before she arrived.

Some slightly insider information:

Two local virginia counties have as their absolute "worst case" budget projections a 30% local decline in residental RE values. They simply cannot imagine worse, and put a less than 5% probably on this decline. Now patrick community understands this to be maybe a best case, relative to zirp and other factors. Both of these counties under under hiring freezes, both are facing enormous deficits, and both are preparing very large tax (property) increases at this point in time.

Nearly without exception, even the small jurisdictions in this area are endeavoring more debt, bond issues for schools and infrastructure are multiplying like rabbits. When do their ratings finally begin to take a hit and the markets stop giving them money or make it too expensive? I think soon, at least it should be soon. Commercial valuations are in the batters box, that should effectively turn off the spigot.

Retail in this area has been completely out of control, it's overbuilt by a factor of 2 or 3. (the industry thinks excess capacity will be less than 10% in a downturn, what a joke) What is going to happen to all of that empty space? Business opportunity there for something no doubt.

The State of Virginia has a massive budget problem, the cities towns and counties are all in debt way over their heads and have massive budget problems, it's getting very interesting for certain. I've seen stuff written about CA FL and OH, but simply wanted to let the list know that this is a serious problem in the mid-atlantic. The State of Maryland is in budget crisis. Washington DC thinks they are OK, they have been relatively insulated but that won't last long.

Apologies relative to off topic and geography.

northernvirginiarenter Says:
Two local virginia counties have as their absolute “worst case” budget projections a 30% local decline in residental RE values. They simply cannot imagine worse

What is 30% nominal drop in real terms? Also, their livelihood somewhat literally depends on property values, so they probably have a strong incentive to not understand the reasons for a larger drop.

Retail in this area has been completely out of control, it’s overbuilt by a factor of 2 or 3. (the industry thinks excess capacity will be less than 10% in a downturn, what a joke) What is going to happen to all of that empty space? Business opportunity there for something no doubt.

I have been wondering about that too, in the BA - maybe FAB can comment on how much of the current commercial property is "flex" and can be repurposed to some productive use (small export oriented workshops? Call centers for Indian companies outsourcing to CA? :-) ) when things go into reverse...

In "The Old Neighborhood" (Ray Suarez of NPR) tells of a time when 1 in 7 of us could trace our roots back to (1) town. Brooklyn. Additionally up until 1950 L.A was the only town over 800k that *wasn't in the NE/Upper MW.

It's hard to drive the back roads of OR,CA and NV and not see the end-of-the-line for a lot of families legacy. Dilapidated/abandoned farms, mining and logging towns and the die-hards time left behind. It's a mistake to think that just being amongst the first to arrive assured success. I appreciate their contributions nonetheless.

I emailed walkway bidness link to the editors of about 30 local rags, it was easy as I already had the local publicity list in hand. It will be interesting to see if anyone picks up the "story".

Dear Sir (editor):

I wanted to bring to your attention a new trend that will likely be of significant interest to your readership. As you are aware, many families are struggling with rising housing costs most often due to the unethical business practices of the "new and innovative" mortgage financing products. To date, media outlets have not provided much helpful information to those many families that are in this terrible situation. Possibly a balanced story on how to help families act in their own financial self-interest would be both timely and well received. In fact, I would suggest yours might be one of the first to cover the "foreclosure" or "subprime" crisis from this angle.

It is often in the best interests of consumers to walk away from a bad financing deal, indeed it is rapidly becoming a national trend. This is maybe not so good for the financing companies themselves, but ultimately will be better for the economy as a whole allowing a more rapid trajectory through the housing valuation crisis. Please see www.youwalkaway.com for more detailed information.

Thanks and best,
X

If enough readers from this list push this out to the media, possibly we have an effect? Gather all the issues of local newspapers, editors post their emails looking for story ideas in them. One might also hit their local TV stations.

Subversive can be fun.

My definition of a 'native Californian' is someone who knows of no other place his relatives lived. A person who doesn't exactly even know where great-great-great-grandpa came from.

>> Why could you not stay for more than 5 months?

Politics and non cooperation. Basically the Yahoo does not have strong leadership to keep politics low. This is not the case in Google. For example there is a mechanism to provide feedback after Google interview ==> this keeps interviewer honest to a degree. Recently in a tech interview, one interviewer was trying to find my age. I was offered the job and naturally I refused. I would have accepted had the company provided me an opportunity to provide feedback on interviewers.

DennisN Says:

> My definition of a ‘native Californian’ is someone
> who knows of no other place his relatives lived.

So does that mean that they Guittards don’t count as “native” Californians since they know that “In the 1850's, Etienne Guittard embarked on an arduous journey from France to America”?
http://www.guittard.com/home/guittard_history.html

But a 15 year old gang member will count as a “native” if he only knows that his Dad was hanging out around the Double Rock Housing projects when he got his Mom a 3rd Street hooker pregnant?

Politics and non cooperation. Basically the Yahoo does not have strong leadership to keep politics low.

It is not possible to keep politics low regardless. :)

"Mechanisms" are created by humans to regulate behaviors. Therefore, "mechanisms" are indeed tools of politics.

Trust me, the human problem is intractable. No amount of "leadership," technology, or "mechanisms" can eliminate the bigotry and self-serving nature of humanity.

I thought native Californians are those who operate highly profitable businesses in Cache Creek and Thunder Valley.

@SP

What is 30% nominal drop in real terms? Also, their livelihood somewhat literally depends on property values, so they probably have a strong incentive to not understand the reasons for a larger drop.

It's been a bubble market in these two high-growth commuter counties, average current median of about $425K and a run up of 110% since 2001. (not actual data, top of head estimates). Current tax rate of .96 per $100 in value. Tax rate has increased 13% annually since 2000. Residential makes up about 80% of total tax commerical 20%. Property tax revenue represents about 90% of total revenues. So in real terms, a 30% decline in property values, given the political difficulties in raising tax rates, represents armegeddon for them. Union concessions and mass layoffs, reduction of services, absolute ugliness. IMHO, and who knows how ugly things get, but a shiller median in this area would be a 40% decline from peak and I'd put my bingo chip on 55% given overcorrection, job loss, and lack of salary inflation.

As government is great at spending I expect to see assessments crash and tax rates skyrocket. They will not reduce their spending by much, by structure they are nearly incapable. The sheeple will be absolutely screaming.

I have been wondering about that too, in the BA - maybe FAB can comment on how much of the current commercial property is “flex” and can be repurposed to some productive use (small export oriented workshops? Call centers for Indian companies outsourcing to CA? ) when things go into reverse…

lol @ californians answering calls in hindi from indian autorickshaw drivers. I was thinking they might make good churches, the sheeple will need more of these in coming times. I'm also thinking dinOR might deliver a good sermon or two and empty some pockets.

Thank the gods that a granite countertop still ads $85K in value in this area.

http://realdiablog.typepad.com/loudounstats/2007/10/granite-counter.html

C'mon, we are in January 2008 no? At times I'm flabbergasted that there are still so many catching the knife.

FAB,
My over-simplified rule-of-thumb is trying to get across the concept of "letting go" of where people came from. Most of my fore-bearers came from the UK. But just knowing the NAME of where you are from isn't the same as having direct knowlege of what that place is like. Just because the Guittard family came from France doesn't mean they have any present-day connection with relatives in France. They have "let go" of the French connections.
Peter P,
Actually I'm supposed to be part Blackfoot Nation, so I have a better claim to be a native Idahoan than a native Californian to some extent.

Actually I’m supposed to be part Blackfoot Nation, so I have a better claim to be a native Idahoan than a native Californian to some extent.

Cool. :)

Dennis, speaking of mens rea...

Gambling clearly lacks "mens rea" as a "crime," no? :)

DennisN Says:

> My over-simplified rule-of-thumb is trying to get
> across the concept of “letting go” of where people
> came from.

I’ll consider someone a “Californian” as soon as they stop saying “out here” and are not talking about somewhere besides California when they say “back home”…

Darn it, Fed cut deeper, I lost $20. I was bettin' on .25.

How scared is the fed?

Feds drop interest rate 1/2%, DOW up over 100 points.

"dinOR might deliver a good sermon" LOL!

Don't look for that to happen any time soon. I do get a little touchy though when people that are still new enough "out here" attempt to make an immediate connection to their lack of roots (here) to their lack of success (here).

For many of the more established families out west success was likely more based on surviving attrition than being connected. Don't get me wrong (I've grumbled too) but the truth is... it never got me anywhere. In ways you still have to make a stand and "stake your claim".

Gambling is God's punishment for people too stupid to master mathematics.

Richmond, Richmond, Richmond :(

At least you didn't say... "dinner"!

@Richmond,

At the rate the Fed keeps feeding the cheap money junkie, they'll be outta ammo by end of February. Personally, I'm rooting they'll just keep on cutting to to (-)5%, so I can get in on the fun too.

PermaRenter Says:
Yahoo does not have strong leadership to keep politics low. This is not the case in Google.

"Politics" at work is always everywhere. Just that it is usually less of a problem when the pie is perceived to be growing. Leadership could be an accelerant but is somewhat incidental to the fundamental nature of this.

When the momentum slows down, people will turn on each other to optimize their own local maxima.

Nova renter said:
not actual data, top of head estimates

Confucius say:
"Top of head estimates usually pulled out of the other end." :-)

Sorry, nothing personal, but that was too good to pass up...

FAB,
I think we are in agreement. Nothing annoys me more than someone who claims to be a "Californian" and the next sentance talks about "flying back home for the holidays". If someplace other than California (e.g. NY, Chicago) is "home" then you aren't a Californian.

>> “Politics” at work is always everywhere.

I agree. Please refer to this Agile 2007 paper:

The Facts of Work: Living with Power and Politics
http://www.agile2007.org/agile2007/downloads/presentations/The_Facts_of_Work_Power_and_Politics_417.pdf

In Yahoo strong leadership is needed to effectively complete with Google. In my five months I observed no sign of competitiveness. For example they were showing Brobeck Mountain in Yahoo! cafe which was attended by a large number of employees. Yahoo! has failed to effectively execute on Overture (project Panama) acquisition.

northernvirginiarenter Says:
Residential makes up about 80% of total tax commerical 20%. Property tax revenue represents about 90% of total revenues. So in real terms, a 30% decline in property values, given the political difficulties in raising tax rates, represents armegeddon for them.

Ouch - no wonder they don't want to consider anything worse that a 5% chance of a 30% drop!

californians answering calls in hindi

Yeah, I was thinking of Dilbert sitting here in Sunnyvale, trying his best to put on a thick Indian accent "Hello sir, I am Ramalamanindam" and interrupting someone's dinner in Mumbai to sell him a subscription to satellite TV... A few more rate cuts should get the dollar low enough to get us there.

OTOH, Church of DinOR sounds good too. He could smite people and cure them of their affliction to cheap Chinese bling.

The Fed is now completely irrelevant and impotent. They are saying now they "hope" they are done cutting. Well, maybe that's just a message to maintain a floor under the dollar, important politically and otherwise. Of course, they can't be done as the unwind continues. It's the only tool they really have, meaningless as it has become, to loosen up financial institutions that are in complete denial as to the losses they are about to face. Simply cutting the borrowing costs of financial institutions is in no way an offset to the scale of losses coming.

Apologies on being so obvious, I'm just losing hair over here.

In Yahoo strong leadership is needed to effectively complete with Google.

It is not a leadership issue. It is a cultural issue.

Are you sure competition is the solution?

With technology, it is nearly impossible to effectively defend against every single emerging competitor, and yet changes and revolutions are the core of the tech industry. This is why I do not invest in technology.

I think the best course of actions for a technology company is to quickly introduce disruption, maximize initial profits, and execute an exit strategy early.

There is no use staying around.

Gold went crazy again. Damn! I was trying to buy more!

@peter P

I think the best course of actions for a technology company is to quickly introduce disruption, maximize initial profits, and execute an exit strategy early.

There is no use staying around.

Completely agreed. All of yahoo's business are under full frontal attack and no new high margin product is coming out the door.

Relative to yahoo vs google: Microsoft search is in some ways ahead of google in analytics (closer to their customer, advertisers). They get their consumer front up to par (search return results) and I think they grab some serious marketshare from Google. Bill Gates is correct, people underestimate their ability to catch up to google in paid search. After all, nothing keeps folks "sticking" to google for search, it's easy to switch away. You give advertisers a better product, they will move over to the dark side, and they have cash to move the eyeballs over as well.

CD rates are shitty low once again. 3.5% average per bankrate.

i was getting 5.5% just last summer.

my mom is pissed and so am i. (i have the same investment portfolio as her....all CD's...not very agressive i know, just wanna keep it safe)

ZIRP is killing me, bring back Volcker is he still alive?

So i suppose everyone who 'fled to safety' like me is suppose to dump all thier USD into stocks per the fed manipulation. I guess i should have locked in multi year CDs. To get back to 5.5% will take 5 years, we have to suffer more rate cuts, then the slow slow rate increases.....CD's are looking like a poor poor place now for a while...

After all, nothing keeps folks “sticking” to google for search, it’s easy to switch away.

Exactly.

BTW, I do not consider Microsoft a technology company. It is more like an empire. I have great respect for Bill Gates.

In fact, I think he is the most respectable person in 20th century history. :)

@SP

lol confusious is wise, I talk out of my 'other end' more often than not. I think it comes from being completely surrounded by idiots most of the time(not here, of course). And this is said with due humility.

Speaking of the Fed rate cut, as expected, the Wall Street Junkies are already looking forward to the next fix:

(from the money.cnn.com piece on the Fed cut)

Wall Street is now betting on more rate cuts in the next few months. According to federal funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, investors are pricing in a 100 percent chance of at least another quarter point cut by the end of April and a 26 percent chance of a half-point of cuts. The Fed will meet in March and April.