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Quantifying the blame: Realtors versus Bankers


               
2010 Nov 1, 11:47am   10,306 views  50 comments

by justme   follow (1)  

By lucky coincidence, CR has a very interesting post today about real-estate broker commissions as a fraction of GDP.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/real-estate-brokers-commissions-lowest.html

Brokers' commissions also declined sharply in Q3 as the number of existing homes sold fell off a cliff in Q3. This has pushed brokers' commissions (0.33% of GDP), to the lowest level since 1982, as a percent of GDP.

Brokers' commissions peaked at 0.91% of GDP in Q3 2005. In nominal terms, commissions have declined from an annual peak rate of $116.5 billion in Q3 2005, to an annual rate of $48.2 billion in Q3 2010 - a decline of over 58%.

In the Lucky Ducky thread, I said

The reason Wall St gets ALL the blame is that they are easier to pick on. Not even Wall St managed to make 6% on all the loans that they fraudulently floated all over the place.

I've said it before, and I will say it again: The Realtors are ground zero of the housing bubble.

The people of the US had to lose 50% of the peak price so that the realtors could make 6% in commissions of the same peak value. It is as simple as that.

So now we can discuss, are the perverse incentives on Wall St any more to blame than the perverse incentives of the RE broker class? The brokers and their agents made commissions at a 117B/yr rate in 2005Q3. Is that more or less what Wall St made? Is it significant in the big picture? I think so.

#housing

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41   theoakman   2010 Nov 3, 10:12am  

They all work in unison. The bankers were the drug kingpins. The realtors were the street pushers selling on the corner. The difference is, there are some periods in time where bankers actually act with sanity. On the other hand, realtors are always peddling garbage your way.

42   thomas.wong1986   2010 Nov 3, 11:25am  

tatupu70 says

That’s the cornerstone of a free market, isn’t it? That everyone acts in their own self interest?

No, greed isnt the cornerstone of a free market. The fact two or more parties can freely bargin for goods and services is. A free market includes .. " the buyer and seller are typically motivated; both parties are well informed or well advised, and acting in what they consider their best interests; a reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market."

Have you seen the many ways Realtors influence and impair free markets from working properly?

43   tatupu70   2010 Nov 3, 11:29am  

thomas.wong1986 says

tatupu70 says


That’s the cornerstone of a free market, isn’t it? That everyone acts in their own self interest?

No, greed isnt the cornerstone of a free market. The fact two or more parties can freely bargin for goods and services is. A free market includes .. ” the buyer and seller are typically motivated; both parties are well informed or well advised, and acting in what they consider their best interests; a reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market.”
Have you seen the many ways Realtors influence and impair free markets from working properly?

I think you may have misunderstood what I was saying. My post was referring to people walking away from their mortgages... It had nothing to do with realtors.

44   thomas.wong1986   2010 Nov 3, 11:29am  

theoakman says

They all work in unison. The bankers were the drug kingpins. The realtors were the street pushers selling on the corner. The difference is, there are some periods in time where bankers actually act with sanity. On the other hand, realtors are always peddling garbage your way.

Yes, even today not much has changed in the behavior of realtors.

45   klarek   2010 Nov 4, 12:11am  

tatupu70 says

klarek says

Troy says

The banks are the root cause of this bubble, they can eat the consequences.

And personal responsibility is kicked to the curb. Not for all, just the deadbeats and those who attempt to justify their selfish behavior.

That’s the cornerstone of a free market, isn’t it? That everyone acts in their own self interest?

No. You really don't understand the merits of capitalism. At all.

The personal indifference (or satisfaction) in performing wholly selfish behavior to the detriment of everybody around you without recourse or a care in the world is a trademark of a sociopathic personality. Just because it sometimes happens in business doesn't mean it's the norm, and most certainly should not be intentionally replicated at a personal level. Any people incapable of grasping these concepts are likely sociopaths themselves.

46   HeadSet   2010 Nov 4, 3:57am  

justme says

Headset, you have exactly one comment per month since April. Are you making a limited comeback? -).

Thanks, I think I'll double my production this month.

As far as Real Estate Agents go, the best way to end the "perverse incentives" would be to avoid using Real Estate Agents at all. Admittedly, hard to do since buyers will find too many houses for sale are listed, and sellers will see too many potential buyers hooked up with agents. Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority are just not comfortable with buying or selling real estate without an Agent. Then again, I do not think anybody would have a problem with Real Estate Agents if the juice was 1% as it is in England, and not the 6% skim pulled here.

One way to attack the 6% fee would be to outlaw the MLS. That would immediately drop the listing fee to 3%. Furthermore, without an MLS, an Agency would have no inventory to show unless they recruit listings, so we may see enhanced competition for listings drive the listing fee down even further. I presume the issue with outlawing the MLS would be a decision between abolishing a collusive practice (as evidenced by the near universal 6%), or an inteference with private property rights (the MLS is a private database).

Another way to reel uin the 6% juice would be to have an open MLS:
1. Anyone, not just Agents, could list for a set fee
2. Assistance with pricing or showing would be contracted separately if needed
3. Since all agents would now be buyers agents, require that Agent commissions come from the buyer's funds at closing. That way buyers coulld see that Agent commissions are not "free."

47   tatupu70   2010 Nov 4, 12:50pm  

klarek says

The personal indifference (or satisfaction) in performing wholly selfish behavior to the detriment of everybody around you without recourse or a care in the world is a trademark of a sociopathic personality. Just because it sometimes happens in business doesn’t mean it’s the norm, and most certainly should not be intentionally replicated at a personal level. Anybody people incapable of grasping these concepts are likely sociopaths themselves.

Wow--how do you really feel? I would argue that by not defaulting in these situations, homeowners are creating moral hazard for the banks. And higher home prices. Banks need to factor in the probability of home price declines into their lending decisions and therefore require higher downpayments to offset this risk. If they don't do this, then they need to be punished or else the free market isn't working.

48   gameisrigged   2010 Nov 5, 4:24am  

klarek says

tatupu70 says

klarek says

Troy says

The banks are the root cause of this bubble, they can eat the consequences.

And personal responsibility is kicked to the curb. Not for all, just the deadbeats and those who attempt to justify their selfish behavior.

That’s the cornerstone of a free market, isn’t it? That everyone acts in their own self interest?

No. You really don’t understand the merits of capitalism. At all.
The personal indifference (or satisfaction) in performing wholly selfish behavior to the detriment of everybody around you without recourse or a care in the world is a trademark of a sociopathic personality. Just because it sometimes happens in business doesn’t mean it’s the norm, and most certainly should not be intentionally replicated at a personal level. Any people incapable of grasping these concepts are likely sociopaths themselves.

It's also characterized by a tendency for rationalization, e.g. "It's just business", "THEY'RE doing it; why shouldn't I?", "That's how the system works", etc.

49   gameisrigged   2010 Nov 7, 4:04pm  

And the winner is..... Wall Street.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/12/wall-st-pay-said-set-to-hit-a-record-144-billion

"Total Wall Street compensation is on pace to reach $144 billion for 2010, a record for the second consecutive year, a study by The Wall Street Journal finds ."

50   investor90   2010 Nov 8, 3:27pm  

Why are there so many nice descriptions about Realwhores tm?

Most of them are petty short con grifters who learned that being a Realwhore tm is a legal way to steal and pillage. In the 80's, thousands of white collar S&L banking criminals were arrested and incarcerated by federal and state criminal investigators for less evil.

Today, its called business as usual for the banking and Real estate sector. Where are all the perp walks? The only activity we see, are the banksters cashing their billion dollar US government handouts, so they can wash rinse and repeat for QE 3 and QE 4. The fed hasn't even finished giving the banksters FREE money from QE2. I wonder which bank Treasury Secretary Geithner will work for next year? He has done a great job of dropping Trillions on his criminal banker buddies. I wager he will leave Treasury and start directing at Goldman-Sachs...or will he play musical chairs with "Helicopter Ben" so the Geithner can continue destroying our economy, with Bernie running to Goldman-Sachs before the music stops. I wonder why Paulson is so quiet. I expect more financial arson from "Hank the snake" (thats what his closest friends call him).

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2004/01/12/357911/index.htm

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