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The Biggest Default In History


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2008 Mar 2, 10:50am   21,129 views  266 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

real money

The biggest default in history has already happened: the US has devalued its promises of repayment to everyone who bought US Treasuries or US bonds of any kind, by devaluing the dollar 50% in just a few years.

What does this mean for the US? Higher interest rates. I don't understand why any person or any government would trust the dollar after this. The logical course of action would be to demand much higher interest rates to compensate for the risk of holding what is rapidly turning out to be only so much green toilet paper.

The thing I don't get is the huge gap between the interest rate the Fed sets for interbank lending (which seems to limit what Americans can get on their CD's and savings) and the very high rates we now see for municipal bond lending (sometimes as high as 20%). Something just doesn't make sense.

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175   OO   2008 Mar 4, 12:32pm  

SP,

thanks for the suggestions, Creola looks good. I have no problem if it is quite a bit below $100 pp :-)

EBGuy,

unfortunately something urgent came up for the week that I was gonna head up to Nick's Cove so I canceled the reservation. I still plan to go up though, it's just a bit far away so I need to plan ahead. I will definitely write a food review after I eventually make it up there.

176   🎂 DennisN   2008 Mar 4, 12:36pm  

There are lots of good old-standby places in the south bay but they go up and down in quality. I moved out two years ago so take this with a grain of salt: La Foret in New Almaden is a wonderful place with a deep wine list.

177   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 2:31pm  

La Foret in New Almaden is a wonderful place with a deep wine list.

I agree. They make good sauces too!

178   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 5:23pm  

I just discovered that the all-time high for gold price was $19390/oz on May 31, 1781.

Looks like we are still way off that high.

Not investment advice.

179   yodaking   2008 Mar 4, 5:35pm  

Hi, I was hoping somebody here could point me to a good free foreclosure listings site? (if it even exists) All the ones I see, you have to pay to access full listings.

Much appreciated in advance.

Cheers

180   StuckInBA   2008 Mar 5, 12:14am  

yodaking,

Trulia lets you search for foreclosures, but for more details on individual properties, you need to be a paid subscriber to RealyTrac.

PropertyShark may be better for you. They list a lot of details - even with free registration.

181   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 12:41am  

Patrick,

Weirdness in Atherton indeed! It's often been said to follow the money but what do you do when it leads you to a gas station?

This type of mortgage fraud is what's going to make "the recovery" so difficult. I highly doubt the person that pulled this off is even still in the U.S, let alone down at the Chevron station?

182   yodaking   2008 Mar 5, 1:40am  

StuckInBA: Thanks so much for the 411. I very much appreciate it

183   🎂 DennisN   2008 Mar 5, 1:49am  

It would be interesting to see if that funny Atherton fraud lead to Norman Hsu and fundraising for his "mama".

185   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 2:14am  

OK so Bill Gross is also asking for a bailout. Given James Carville's famous quote: "When I die I want to come back as the bond market. Because then you can intimidate everybody", what hope is left?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/03/05/11362/bill-gross-keeping-to-the-right-side-of-the-tracks/?source=rss

And can someone explain why Gross wants a bailout (he says PIMCO is doing fine!) - isn't the bond market doing fantastic now? What's he trying to do, pop his own bubble?

186   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 2:16am  

DennisN,

You mean "Run-around-Hsu"?

Well, if you're going to steal, steal BIG! I could barely follow Patrick's detective work on that one? The guy set up an LLC incorporated in Delaware? Of course that's not an issue for a toilet paper magnate!

Small wonder little if any of this will be investigated. Some institution loaned out millions on this and didn't bother to check the address was a gas station? When they said "why rob a bank when it's so easy to rob your house?" this guy took it to heart.

187   SP   2008 Mar 5, 2:18am  

DinOR Says:
This type of mortgage fraud is what’s going to make “the recovery” so difficult.

In a different context, someone had used the analogy of a frantic attempt to scoop sh*t up from the diaper and get it back into the baby... i.e. can't really be done and the end result is worse than the problem you tried to fix.

188   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 2:22am  

"get my tax money back" LOL!

BAI, I dunno' I've said Gross was a "real" idiot for years. He's fought 'marking to market' and prefers mark to myth! No, the bond market is not well. With the implosion of the insurers there's been a 15-20% hit in the muni's. Muni's for crissakes.

Don't you remember his famous comment to Bush? Taunting him to immediate "action" and calling him "The Decider"?

189   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 2:27am  

DinOR

Not being an expert I don't follow Gross so closely so i don't remember the taunt. I just had this impression of him and PIMCO as 'serious' characters - whatever that means these days. Now he seems to be acting like Cramer, screaming "they know nothing, they know nothing!"...wtf?

190   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 2:33am  

By the way BB is not suggesting the gov. make up the difference in the loan reductions between lender borrower (may I am as naive as I am idiotic). He's endorsing Summers' scheme to come up with some new instrument which will allow the bank to share in any upside, should prices go up in the future. So they write down now and then sell those instruments - maybe even securitize them? That must somehow mitigate losses right? Assuming they can pull this off, the gov. is in the meantime helping out by throwing money into the economy, in amounts suspiciously close to what the economy used to get from MEW.

191   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 2:35am  

BAI,

BG's monthly newsletter was littered with Arthurian and Greek Mythology references that I guess guys in the bond pit really didn't have the luxury of appreciating? He should have retired when PIMCO was still respectable.

Agreed, he's become just another Cramer and reminds of one of my father's favorite sayings: "It's easy to act classy (when you're always winning)" :)

192   OO   2008 Mar 5, 2:46am  

Isn't Maestro Greenspan working for Bill Gross right now?

193   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 2:54am  

Yeah, I think I heard something to that effect. They belong together.

194   SP   2008 Mar 5, 2:59am  

BayAreaIdiot Says:
By the way BB is not suggesting the gov. make up the difference in the loan reductions between lender borrower (may I am as naive as I am idiotic).

Of course he is not going to come out and spell it out directly - it will be a complicated transfer of risk, through an alphabet soup of treasury-backed schemes - each of which will purport to serve a very honorable and politically popular purpose - but taken together they will form a conduit for neatly transferring risk to the taxpayer.

As a teenager, I once had the pleasure of having my pocket expertly picked in Naples (Italy, not FL) - didn't feel a thing. I think this will turn out the same way.

195   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 3:02am  

Wll if Greenspan now works for an outfit whose founder is calling for a bailout from the mess Greenspan was instrumental in creating......words fail me! Is there no shame?

196   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 3:13am  

As a teenager, I once had the pleasure of having my pocket expertly picked in Naples (Italy, not FL) - didn’t feel a thing. I think this will turn out the same way.

Well if it was a pleasure, then what are we worried about now? BB et al may not be Neapolitan, but as long as they are smooth about it... :-)

197   Peter P   2008 Mar 5, 3:13am  

Is there no shame?

Shame is what you put on others.

198   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 3:14am  

Besides they may neatly transfer risk to the Chinese/Arab SWFs as opposed to the US taxpayer...keep hope alive!

199   Peter P   2008 Mar 5, 3:16am  

Besides they may neatly transfer risk to the Chinese/Arab SWFs as opposed to the US taxpayer…keep hope alive!

SWFs are intelligent strong-hands, although much investments will be politically motivated. Let's see how it plays out.

200   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 3:18am  

AG's conscience (and record) are perfectly clean! He implemented 17 consecutive 1/4 pt. rate hikes to "quell" the froth!

(With the prospects of owning/flipping/squatting yielding hundreds of thousands of tax free dollars... 1/4 pt. hikes were the equivalent of beating someone with a wet noodle for chrissakes) but his conscience is clear!

201   Peter P   2008 Mar 5, 3:21am  

1/4 pt. hikes were the equivalent of beating someone with a wet noodle for chrissakes

Not only that... it is like beating someone with a wet noodle at a pace that is likely to be measured. :)

202   OO   2008 Mar 5, 3:22am  

Chinese SWF's main goal is to acquire resources. They've been f*cked real bad by Blackstone, Bear Stearns and a bunch of financial scams, so the latest mandate is to concentrate their effort on acquiring minerals, energy and even agriculture-related companies.

The Arab SWFs recently turned down the "offer" to continue injection in Citi.

American taxpayers will become the last resort for these financial scams on WS, while these WS executives have long moved their stolen money offshore.

203   OO   2008 Mar 5, 3:24am  

It always baffles me why Bernanke would take that job in 2006? Is he stupid?

It equally baffles me why someone would run for Presidency for 2008? Are they collectively stupid?

That's why I think Bloomberg or Gore are truly smart people, I bet they will run in 2012.

204   Peter P   2008 Mar 5, 3:26am  

Why do people ever want to invest in companies when they can invest in commodities? Why should I put faith in a management when I can buy something real?

205   OO   2008 Mar 5, 3:27am  

I think the best outcome for Gore is to have President McCain in place. That old fart cannot even last through his first Presidency.

Either Obama or Billary in the seat will make it more difficult for him to stage a comeback. The opposite stands true for Bloomberg.

206   Peter P   2008 Mar 5, 3:28am  

That’s why I think Bloomberg or Gore are truly smart people, I bet they will run in 2012.

Please no!

What is he doing? This is absurd:

http://www.mikebloomberg.com/en/news/mayor_plans_an_all_hybrid_taxi_fleet

207   Peter P   2008 Mar 5, 3:30am  

I have great faith in McCain. I believe he is an honorable person.

Either Obama or Billary in the seat will make it more difficult for him to stage a comeback.

How did FDR get so many terms?

208   OO   2008 Mar 5, 3:31am  

McCain already talks like an Alzheimer patient. I don't think he can even walk out of the oval office when he is done, in 2012. I predict he will last half a term.

Anybody who supported Bush at one point is not an honorable person.

209   OO   2008 Mar 5, 3:32am  

Don't get me wrong, I dislike McCain so much that I will vote for him to put him right on the hot spot when the perfect storm hits.

210   StuckInBA   2008 Mar 5, 3:34am  

He’s endorsing Summers’ scheme to come up with some new instrument which will allow the bank to share in any upside, should prices go up in the future. So they write down now and then sell those instruments - maybe even securitize them? That must somehow mitigate losses right?

Dicing risky debt and mixing it with other risky debt to come up with a security does not reduce risk. That fallacy was touted by the Maestro and is now completely exposed. Yes, in theory everything works fine, but there are always unintended and unforeseen consequences that kill the model.

And do we really need any more complicated debt instruments ? It's the terrible opacity of this "financial dark matter" that brought us here. And now an even more complicated scheme will save us ?

211   StuckInBA   2008 Mar 5, 3:41am  

Peter P :

Without knowing any hard information, the cynic in me says - look at the lis of his campaign donors. You may find the answer behind all this eco-friendly taxi initiatives.

212   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 3:43am  

StuckInBA,

Amen. I need to hear someone say "we're putting an end to this Tom Foolery once and for all" before I can get comfortable with any kind of a recovery path.

Speaking of Tom:

seekingalpha.com/article/67197-foreclosure-proof-homeowners?source=feed

Barry Ritholtz calls 'em as he sees 'em.

213   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 3:46am  

And now an even more complicated scheme will save us ?

I am not expert enough to decide that issue. It just seems a reasonable way forward. At least I haven't heard any other "solution" which seems more reasonable. No magic - just a way to mitigate losses or at least spread them out over time so they don't become a calamity. I think everyone agrees houses will *eventually* appreciate again, particularly if the measure of that appreciation is the new value (after the writedown). If that has some value, maybe you can sell it today as a security? *If* you can find buyers, then you book less losses today and we can all move on with our lives. Maybe?

214   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 3:49am  

Besides, I thought we got to this point not because of the securitization per se, but because loan standards went to hell (for a variety of reasons).

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