patrick.net

> What year, in the past, best describes where you think home prices (nationally) should be… > 2002/2001/2000/1912/????

Sure, 1912 :-)

I think this is the bottom if current conditions remain.

Clearly we're at some sort of equilibrium now as prices are at 2003 levels.

It's all the doom stuff that gives us a further downside from here, and you can't model those effects.

What if 2011 is worse than 2010? Entirely possible. We'll get another leg down going.

What if the yuan doubles to 3 and gas goes to $12/gallon? Say goodbye to home values outside oil-producing areas (and areas Chinese want to buy).

What if government goes kablooey and the 20M+ government jobs get cut 10 or 20%?

The key thing for me is I just don't see any agencies of recovery. "It's time to recover now!" doesn't really work, as the 1930s demonstrated, and as have Japan's experience with a balance sheet recession.

One thing is clear though, and that's the 2004-2007 period was unsustainable. I think we're still running on fumes to support 2003 prices.

Now the Republicans are even campaigning against the Fed's money drops coming next year.

This place is insane.

I would say 1996. You could argue inflation would demand a higher price level, but we haven't had wage inflation for ten years. We are, through lays-offs and gov/Corp austerity, overall going through wage deflation to some extent. If interest rates rise significantly affordability falls. Is this really an environment you would expect a strong real estate market? Guess we'll see. I won't be looking at places at today's prices. Still too high. Just my two cents.

Interest rates won't rise without inflation. The fed won't allow it.

If you are making any decisions based on the idea that we're going to have high interest rates without inflation, you're making a big mistake.

Dunno about other places, but just for my county... I'd say 1998, though 2001, even 2002 price is acceptable to me.

You can call me a dreamer or anything, but I personally think average family that earns average HH income should be able to buy a condo at 2X HH income, at 2.5X for a townhouse, and at 3X for SFH. I am talking about ordinary mid level 3/2 in the area. Average 3/2 SFH price to average HH income ratio back in 2000 was about 3 in my county. That become 5.5 in year 2007, and is 5 now. So that means home price is acceptable when, either the home price crash down 40% from here, or HH income goes up quite dramatically. Which I don't think is happening here any time soon.