patrick.net

From my What's It Really Worth? service, I can't really see rents much different in the summer:

The trend is rising slightly, but it's still a horrible deal to own in upscale neighborhoods. Renting the same quality house is far cheaper there. On the other hand, in the far east bay there are some really good deals for buyers now.

thomaswong.1986 says

It’s not going to happen this summer, in fact if the economy gathers steam, rents are going higher.

Your "prediction" on event to take place down the road, I take it ?

Post 2000 rents fell off pretty steeply back in 2001-2002. Salaries are still down from 2000. I doubt very much rents ever hit the 2000 peak since. Why is it surprising that rents are down from 2000? The rent decline from 2000 is post tech bubble popping. The rent decline from 2007-8 would be the current recession/housing bubble pop.

While I might be making more now than I did in 2001, there aren't as many mouth-breathing burger flippers claiming to be HTML coders making what I make these days. There was a hugely over-paid under-qualified group of people leeching off the tech bubble running up apartment rents in 2000.

Not to mention we have swelling ranks of skilled unemployed workers today and fewer employers than in 2000 or 2005.

My rent was $1395 in 1997, peaked at $1695 ~2002, dropped to $1495 shortly thereafter (long before the "worst real estate crash in history") and has stayed there ever since despite Googlites infesting Mt. View in great numbers.

sfbubblebuyer says

There was a hugely over-paid under-qualified group of people leeching off the tech bubble running up apartment rents in 2000.

Heh. I was dating someone who went from being a blacksmith to being an underqualified web person to being (very briefly) a grossly underqualified VP at a tech startup. Post-bubble, last I heard she was making a living selling stuff on eBay.

Daisy,

I follow residential REIT's closely and rent escalation is poised to go uo 5-10% in 2011. There is 0 chance you will get a better deal in the summer, most likely it will be worse. However you do get the benefit of time to look and pay a lower rate in the meantime. Cupertino is not a college town so there is no spike in vacany in the summer.

rents typically fall during a recession so if you think the economy will improve by summer then rents will probably go up.

There's also a seasonal factor. Rents typically higher in spring/summer when more people are looking to move.

I rent at 3/2 house in Oakland; the rent went down around 2004, but has since gone back up past where it was. It just went up again this month.

SF ace says

I follow residential REIT’s closely and rent escalation is poised to go uo 5-10% in 2011.

Since I've seen rents stay mostly flat to down for the past 7 or 8 years, I'm going to go with "unlikely".

I think your rent range is high. Just looked on craigslist for 2X2 in Cupertino. Saw numerous options between $1500 - $2000.

Keep looking.

my source is all conference calls from residential REITs which in aggregate handles about a million unit. In every conference call, every analyst likes to know what is the renewal rate, vancancy and new occupaancies are the message from every CEO, CFO mouth is clear. Seekingalpha posts all the transcripts.

In a nutshell,

"With little new development under way rents have risen 5% nationally in the past year, apartment-data firm Axiometrics says. McCulloch expects the gains to flow through as a 12.5% annual average increase over the next two years among the dozen U.S. apartment REITs he follows."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/240455-apartment-reits-the-big-bull-market-in-housing?source=qp_article