patrick.net

Menya says

Thanks for sharing info on pricing in Vacaville and LA. La is way too far and Vacaville is….well, Vacaville.
Seems that the majority here believes we should wait. I agree that we should still look and try to save money. Reevaluate come spring time.

If I was convinced that housing prices will decline by 5% a year every year for the next 10 years, I wouldn't buy a house for next 10 years. At the same time, if I was convinced that housing prices will decline by 1% a year every year for the next 10 years, then given my financial situation I would still buy a house due to the inherent personal value and mental stratification that I attach to owning and living in a SFH with nice front and backyard. In short, I would say that my threshold of NOT buying a house would be a steady 1.5% decline in housing prices every year for the next 10 years.

So just out of curiosity, I am wondering what your threshold and that of others who plan to buy a house to live in it for say the next 20 years is? Would you wait for next 10 years to buy a house if it was reasonably well known that housing prices will continue to decline by 1% a year for the next 10 years? What about 0.5% or 0.25% decline per year for the next 10 years. Obviously if prices remain stable for the next 10 years, you and others who can would buy.

P.S: this is off course with the caveat that no one can predict the future 5 to 10 years out.

I currently rent in Almaden, and, I agree that it's no Monte Carlo or Manhattan. The reality is that this place and most other cities around here are still in a bubble and it will take at least 5 years or more + a 50% drop from current price levels, until all the dust clears. My children attended public schools in the area, and schools are worse than many of the schools in other parts of the country where houses are at least 60% cheaper. The weather is nice, but not nearly as nice as in Southern Cal where prices are also cheaper. Pay is also a little higher for tech professionals, but, as we already know only 100K of the 8M Bay Area residence are actually employed in the tech profession. Another point, is that you can not even compare prices around here to prices in other parts of the country, because quality of housing stock in this area is much inferior. Even though the weather outside is much nicer here than in Chicago, for example, I spend most of my time in the house, where heat insulation is not as good, so I actually feel much colder in the Bay Area than I did in Chicago. As far as Almaden is concerned, it doesn't even have a nice downtown area, so would not even be considered as a town, in other parts of the country, and most houses around here, are definite demolition material elsewhere.