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How Many Foreclosures in Palo Alto, 1 or 74?


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2008 Apr 7, 3:35am   33,107 views  211 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

A reader named John sent me a bunch of data on foreclosures, which I posted here:

http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/foreclosures_percent.html">http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/foreclosures_percent.html

The data says that there are 74 houses in some stage of foreclosure in Palo Alto, or 55% of all the houses for sale.

Another reader, named Carl, object that:

The foreclosure lister at sfgate.com doesn't correlate this at all, it suggests a single foreclosure in 94301/94306 for all of 2007. The issue may be that whoever calculated your page included Palo Alto in San Mateo county, generally known as East Palo Alto, which has a huge foreclosure rate.

I forwarded the objection to John, who replied:

Hi Patrick,

I love the fact that it’s “acceptable/normal” for a home to increase its value by 100% during a five-year time frame, but it’s “unreasonable/impossible” for a home to decrease it’s value by 30-40% during a similar time frame. It’s yet another symptom of how off-kilter and in denial most (especially in this area are).

Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy the Chronicle and I enjoy sfgate.com, but I’m always curious as to how much of their advertising dollars derive from the NAR, homebuilders, realtors in general, etc. Please forward confirmation of the numbers below:

Palo Alto “Proper,” CA: 150 total homes for sale, of which 74 (49%) are in various stages of the foreclosure process (the range is from lenders who have filed a Notice of Foreclosure at the recorder’s office to REO properties).

East Palo Alto, CA: 189 total homes for sale, of which 106 (56%) are in various stages of the foreclosure process (the range is from lenders who have filed a Notice of Foreclosure at the recorder’s office to REO properties).

I completely understand why anyone (especially someone living in one of these areas) might have some doubt and a hard time swallowing it. With that said, we always encourage individuals who have a similar stance to physically go to their Recorder’s office and ask for all the data. We have even had some literally go from street to street to count the number of homes for sale within a specific area (that was a bit extreme, but it’s what some people need to do to extract the “truth”).

I don’t want to exacerbate anyone during what is obviously a very difficult time for many, so all I simply say is “this is my resource and if you have doubts about the data, you should absolutely go there yourself.” At that point they have no legitimate response other “okay, I will” or “no” (because they’re too lazy/unmotivated) to go.

#housing

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98   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Apr 8, 6:52am  

OO
re japanese and the draft in wwii

Wow! Even though I see the logic in it, I still find it stunning that they had that much discipline, even in the midst of such a terrible war.

I have to say that it's doubly smart. You not only preserve your "brains", but "brainiacs" tend not to be that physically imposing (I know I'm stereotyping, but indulge me please). Better to send your Steve Balmers to mano-a-mano war, than your Bill Gates!

99   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 6:53am  

I am all for banning international students of majors other than science and engineering from getting a job in the US at all. We don’t need them, we actually have so many of our own homegrown graduates that we need to export.

LET THE MARKET DECIDE!

Sorry for yelling. I need some honey please.

100   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Apr 8, 7:02am  

LET THE MARKET DECIDE!

You keep repeating that mantra Peter P. Hasn't the housing "market" of the last few years given you any reason for a modicum of skepticism? :-)

101   DinOR   2008 Apr 8, 7:05am  

Well my point was simply that the battlefield needs engineers too! When the replacement commander arrived on Iwo Jima he couldn't believe they were digging trenches right in the beach. They were only marginally dug in when American forces arrived.

That aside I don't believe any engineer's life is more valuable than mine or anyone else's for that matter. If you love your country, here's your shovel and here's your rifle.

102   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 7:08am  

Bubbles are not avoidable in any capital market driven by people. We just have to live with them.

Market interventions do tend to exacerbate asset bubbles because regulations are themselves reflexive.

103   OO   2008 Apr 8, 7:11am  

The Japanese were not ranking the life of its citizens, it is ranking the usefulness of its citizens in a combat situation, particularly those who carried the hope of the country.

If it didn't preserve so many science and engineering students during the war, it most certainly wouldn't be able to rebuild its industrial might quickly after the war, and re-emerged as the second biggest economy.

Back to our OPT and H1B issue. Every single science and engineering talent from foreign country that we can keep, is a loss to their home country, so it is a 0-sum game that we must win. I think it is a good process of giving all of these students OPT of a certain period. If they are good enough, they will be kept by their employer, who would then file for H1B and GC petition for them. If they are not good enough, let them go. That is letting the market decide.

104   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Apr 8, 7:11am  

That aside I don’t believe any engineer’s life is more valuable than mine or anyone else’s for that matter. If you love your country, here’s your shovel and here’s your rifle.

That's typically/traditionally what most societies believe (or so I thought). That's why I was so surprised that the japanese would think/act otherwise.

Anyway I'm sure they had some engineers in battle. It just seems (from what OO is saying) that they made an effort not to "waste" their brainiacs as cannon fodder.

105   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Apr 8, 7:20am  

Market interventions do tend to exacerbate asset bubbles because regulations are themselves reflexive.

Perhaps. But to this idiot it seems highly suspicious that there is a conicidence of market intervention - in the sense of lifting regulations - and bubbles. You never hear of a bubble because of too much regulation. At least not in anything as "boring" an asset class as the US *national* housing market should be.

106   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 7:20am  

Every single science and engineering talent from foreign country that we can keep, is a loss to their home country, so it is a 0-sum game that we must win.

The same is true for all kinds of talent. Engineering is great but it is meaningless in a vacuum.

A great salesman can make a fortune selling crap. Engineering masterpieces ain't worth nothing without the market.

107   OO   2008 Apr 8, 7:20am  

The preservation of science and engineering students is not unique to Japanese, it is the same with Chinese. During WWII, all the science and engineering college students were rounded up, sent to the inland and NOT drafted at all. A Nobel laureate in Physics, CN Yang, was a product of this era.

On the other hand, liberal arts students were encouraged to go to the war, or more actively participate in the war. Chinese students in college were in fact discouraged from studying subjects other than science and engineering because that was seen as useless for serving one's country. Such a tradition continued all the way into the 80s, until they started to figure out finance could make more money.

108   DinOR   2008 Apr 8, 7:24am  

"the hope of the country" IS... the guy in the trenches!

"rebuild it's industrial might" (you mean that "we" rebuilt?) You mean the rebuilding effort that should have went into the Philippines (our allies) instead? I guess I'll never understand that part?

109   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 7:25am  

You never hear of a bubble because of too much regulation.

Tax incentives... artificially low interest rates... FHA... should I continue?

110   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 7:25am  

The hope of a country is FAITH.

111   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 7:32am  

Sorry, I just think science and engineering are over-rated. We need more right-brain talents.

112   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Apr 8, 7:33am  

Peter P

tax incentives and FHA were there before but didn't cause a national bubble.

Artificially low interest rates are artificial only in the eye of the beholder. And they didn't cause the bubble. Lack of enforcement of sensible regulation did. Regulation that existed before and will exist again in the future. Low rates are just extra fuel.

113   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Apr 8, 7:34am  

FAITH

is this an acronym?

114   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 7:39am  

Lack of enforcement of sensible regulation did.

This is like saying gun confiscation is the only way to prevent crime.

115   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Apr 8, 7:43am  

It is *a* way (not the only way) to prevent a certain type of crime. However, there's something in the constitution about it. Nothing there about flipping, I/Os, ARMs. $0 down, securitization of loans masquarading as AAA (there's your free market for you!) etc etc etc

116   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 7:59am  

It is *a* way (not the only way) to prevent a certain type of crime.

That way is as effective as outlawing crime.

117   skibum   2008 Apr 8, 8:01am  

Before the late 1960's, as far as I know, there were no quotas for highly educated immigrants, at least on any meaningful scale. Yet our country did fine and in fact thrived with masses of the "uneducated" and "lower class" immigrants that came - Eastern Europeans, Irish, etc etc.

Why is it that different today? I know I know, today's economy is based on "high tech." But, do we really have so little faith in our home-grown education system that we have to import educated workers?

That's lame.

118   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 8:03am  

But, do we really have so little faith in our home-grown education system that we have to import educated workers?

Well, the education system outlawed faith. Enough said.

119   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Apr 8, 8:12am  

That way is as effective as outlawing crime

If so then maybe we should consider that path. Over the centuries crime has been outlawed by most and it seems to have worked rather well. When the laws and regulations are intelligent and intelligently enforced that is. ANything can be taken to extremes.

120   OO   2008 Apr 8, 8:26am  

The fact is, we are not generating enough of these "well-educated" people in subjects we need.

If there were enough home-grown Americans who were studying science and engineering at college and graduate school level to begin with, our schools wouldn't have been admitting that many international students *on scholarship*, and our employers wouldn't have had enough clout to lobby for H1Bs.

Home grown Americans are more interested in instant profit, so we have more-than-adequate supply of MBAs and JDs. That's also precisely why you seldom see any foreigner studying at business school or law school on scholarship. Even there are, most of the foreign MBAs and JDs have to head home right after they finish their studies because given the fierce competition from domestic graduates, they cannot find a job here!

121   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Apr 8, 8:32am  

JDs are locked up due to the ingenious design flaw of that degree. It is US law. No good if you want to practice in India!

I think foreign MBAs exist but since it is a degree for your late 20s to late 30s, it doesn't have the same dynamics as a EE or CS degree, which are aimed at 18-20 yr olds.

122   OO   2008 Apr 8, 8:38am  

Very low proportion of foreign MBAs stay here, mainly because they cannot fight the domestic competition. If the domestic competition is just as fierce in MS and PhD degrees, there won't be lots of staying foreign students either.

MBA classes targeting foreign students is actually a major revenue source for second tier universities. There are certain business schools (2nd tier or below) where over half the class are full-tuition paying foreign students who have little hope of ever finding a job here.

123   OO   2008 Apr 8, 8:41am  

Actually most foreign law students don't come here to do JD. Foreign school system has undergraduate law degree. They come here to do LLM (master of law, which is odd after you are a JD), which is only one year. The hope is they can invest the least amount of time and money, finish the LLM, pass the bar, and find a job to practice in the US.

Not so lucky. Even the top LLM classes in the US have over 1/3 foreign students with such false hope. It is extremely rare for a foreign LLM to find a JD-equivalent job in the US.

124   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 8:52am  

Setting up entrance barrier for labor is NOT a good way to keep jobs here.

There is no way to stop the global wage arbitrage.

125   DennisN   2008 Apr 8, 8:55am  

The Manhatten Project guys didn't get drafted: neither did the Rad Lab guys who perfected RADAR. Entire sets of math grad students were bundled off to perform the decription efforts of ULTRA in the UK and MAGIC in the US.

126   DennisN   2008 Apr 8, 8:59am  

Actually the California Bar will admit to take the bar exam students who have "graduated from a law school in a country whose law is based upon English Common Law". And there is reciprocity with at least the UK. A friend of mine, born in Ireland, got a US JD and passed the CA bar. A few years ago she decided to go back home and got admitted in Ireland.

To practice in Ireland, you have to pass the bar exam in ENGLAND. I bet that sticks in Irish craws. ;)

127   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 9:05am  

Lawyers love the English Common Law, don't they. ;)

128   Malcolm   2008 Apr 8, 9:18am  

Peter P Says:
April 8th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
"Setting up entrance barrier for labor is NOT a good way to keep jobs here.
There is no way to stop the global wage arbitrage."

Sure there is, import tarrifs. AND, they should also be applied to American goods coming in from overseas, none of this "It's an American product made in China" nonsense.
I believe in NAFTA, but on a personal level, like Mexicans coming over here to buy things or us going over there. We shouldn't have to be hassled on a reasonable amount of goods unless they are for resale.

129   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 9:25am  

Sure there is, import tarrifs. AND, they should also be applied to American goods coming in from overseas, none of this “It’s an American product made in China” nonsense.

American consumers will simply move overseas.

130   Claire   2008 Apr 8, 9:26am  

I believe glass blowers were not conscripted in Britain - my grandfather was needed to blow glass for delicate equipment and bombs.

131   OO   2008 Apr 8, 9:31am  

I think given the surge in energy price which is very likely to stick for another decade or so, NAFTA will make more sense than global trade, and that is going to be the trend.

Let's face it, there is no way you can block illegal immigrants from Mexico, it ain't gonna happen until our economic status and theirs start to reach a comparable level. Either we become poorer or they become richer, life finds a way, particularly for lives just across the border.

I really have nothing against Latinos. I prefer them to many domestic trash of different colors who are obese, stupid, lazy yet violent, and worst of all, they make themselves sound like victims. Latinos are generally happy people who work hard. I have a tremendous respect for anyone who is willing to work hard.

Call ourselves lucky. At least the Latinos speak Spanish (which is fairly easy for English speakers to pick up), have good work ethics, have good food, and have embraced the Anglo-Saxon culture. Well, imagine if we were bordering Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, etc... things could have been a lot worse.

132   SP   2008 Apr 8, 9:48am  

DinOR Says:
What is UP w/ the IMF? Why aren’t they in their usual nod-off mode?

Now that we have a third-world currency, a second rate leadership and a first rate crisis - I guess the IMF felt we qualified for their ministrations. :-)

133   justme   2008 Apr 8, 9:54am  

test -- I'm having trouble posting.

134   SP   2008 Apr 8, 10:02am  

OO Says:
The Japanese were not ranking the life of its citizens, it is ranking the usefulness of its citizens in a combat situation, particularly those who carried the hope of the country.

The approach is not surprising, although some of the shock-element in because in normal, polite society, we like to pretend that everyone is 'special'.

I see a lot of parallels in the way layoffs are planned when a biggish company is in trouble. First to be let go are incompetents and 'overhead' jobs like "process synergy analysts". Last to be cut are the best sales and engineering talent.

135   SP   2008 Apr 8, 10:14am  

skibum Says:
do we really have so little faith in our home-grown education system that we have to import educated workers?

A couple of years ago, I volunteered at a school to coach kids in math. I encountered an entire class of eighth graders who were unsound on the concept of fractions. Nothing fancy, basic fractions. You do the math (no pun intended).

We do turn out a lot of smart, well-trained kids - and no doubt there is a *huge* number of poorly-prepared grads (who all THINK they are entitled to a well-paying job), but my guess is that the number of adequately trained graduates is not large enough to competently fill the available jobs in an economy as large as this.

The question, IMHO is - do we fix the symptom by importing better educated talent, or do we really fix the system to produce a larger volume of properly educated american kids?

136   justme   2008 Apr 8, 10:32am  

[Hideously Old Topic, but I was unable to post earlier because of technical difficulties]

FAB,

I donN"t understand why a gold digger can marry a guy for a few years and after to agreeing to stay with him N4until death do us partN! break the contract (to move in with her personal trainer) and take half the guys assets…

It is because the men of the US (and California in particular) are completely asleep at the wheel when it comes to paying attention to family law and the implications of changes in same laws. No-fault divorce is a prime example.

Men in the US are so caught up in the treadmill of success (aka. competing like crazy against their brethren for the honor of banging one supermodel before they die) that they completely forget to pay attention to what is happening to their rights in society as a whole.

Here's the big question: Do you think that either the democrats or the republicans are going to make family law and marriage contracts more equitable?

137   Peter P   2008 Apr 8, 10:34am  

I see a lot of parallels in the way layoffs are planned when a biggish company is in trouble. First to be let go are incompetents and ‘overhead’ jobs like “process synergy analysts”. Last to be cut are the best sales and engineering talent.

Is that your wishful thinking? :) Which planet are you from?

Last to be cut are people with the best political skills. Good engineers are expensive on paper and they are the first to go.

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