patrick.net

Troy says

To be ‘better’ requires being good in the first place

OK--no use quibbling about the definition of better. If you want to say less bad, fine.

tatupu70 says

Hopefully the trend will continue and in 6 months

There's your problem. We're not in a 80s or 90s or 00s recession. All the sins we used to get out of those recessions are now still with us.

We're running a very advanced playbook of the 30s, so 2011 is shaping up to be 1937.

I'm naturally an optimist, I'm not expecting things to get materially worse from here, but, rationally, I also don't see why they won't.

Energy prices are heading up. Food prices are heading up.

Mr.Fantastic says

tatupu70 says

Mr.Fantastic says

Do you even question why “sales” are down” even though “signed contracts” have gone up? Seriously, I’m beginning to question if you’ve ever analyzed any data, ever.

Do you understand time? Signed contracts turn into sales several weeks to a few months later. That’s why it’s a forward looking statistic. It’s not really complicated. Even someone making a measly 100K can understand it…

Short sales. Read about them some time.

But we're comparing apples to apples. Unless something happened to increase short sales in November, then that makes no difference. There is an increase in signed contracts.

tatupu70 says

There is an increase in signed contracts.

Interest rates bottoming in October?

tatupu70 says

But things are getting better.

Damn straight, home prices are tanking again. Good news for potential buyers. Bad news for permabear deniers.

Mr.Fantastic says

tatupu70 says

Mr.Fantastic says

tatupu70 says

Mr.Fantastic says

Do you even question why “sales” are down” even though “signed contracts” have gone up? Seriously, I’m beginning to question if you’ve ever analyzed any data, ever.

Do you understand time? Signed contracts turn into sales several weeks to a few months later. That’s why it’s a forward looking statistic. It’s not really complicated. Even someone making a measly 100K can understand it…

Short sales. Read about them some time.

But we’re comparing apples to apples. Unless something happened to increase short sales in November, then that makes no difference. There is an increase in signed contracts.

Short sales are not an insignificant part of the market these days. Seriously read about it.
Either way you go, this doesn’t help you. If the signed contracts blow up (which happens a lot), then no sale happens. If the contracts go through (eventually), then you have a sale that lowers comps. You’re in a catch 22, son.

Once again, you completely miss the point. Short sales are completely irrelevent. We're looking at the trend in signed contracts since the credit expired. There is a % of short sales that don't make it to closing. But unless you have some data showing that % is rising, then it makes entirely zero difference. The number of sales will also be rising in direct correlation in the upcoming months.

Troy says

tatupu70 says

There is an increase in signed contracts.

Interest rates bottoming in October?

I know your feeling on the effect of interest rates. Needless to say, I don't feel they have nearly the same effect as you do. We'll have to see in the upcoming months

tatupu70 says

I don’t feel they have nearly the same effect as you do

I can certainly see rates going into the f---ing 3%s prompting some purchases. I was feeling some inducement to get into the market then too, as did Roubini lol.

Three out of four scenarios looked good

1) interest rates stay low -- good, you timed the bottom
2) interest rates go lower -- good, you can refi
3) interest go higher in response to inflation -- good, you've beaten inflation
4) interest rates go higher due to extrinsic forces

We seem to be in scenario #4 now . . .

tatupu70 says

bubblesitter says

toothfairy says

bubblesitter says

This forum could be very frustrating experience for bulls.

the only frustrating part is all of the misinformation.

Oh! you want rosy news. YOY home price increased 20%? That ain’t gonna happen. I am sorry that the information is not coming out the way you want. LOL.

How about unemployment applications down sharply. Lowest level in 2.5 years.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101230/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy
Signed contracts up 3.5% in November. Up 22% since low point in June.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Signed-contracts-to-buy-homes-apf-2609887512.html?x=0
Just the headlines from today. But I know–I must be a desperate homeowner trying to justify my purchase. Otherwise why would I post anything on pat.net that might be construed as good news??

Are those the $8/hr jobs that came back? Signed contract is up? Hmm...but is it enough to catch up with inventory banks are holding and the inventory in pipeline? LOL.

bubblesitter says

Are those the $8/hr jobs that came back? Signed contract is up? Hmm…but is it enough to catch up with inventory banks are holding and the inventory in pipeline? LOL.

Ah, yes, the shadow inventory again. That huge inventory that the banks for some reason decided not to put on the market during the 10%+ runup in prices in 2009/early 2010. Because they wanted to wait until the tax credit expired before listing the houses, right?

Mr.Fantastic says

tatupu70 says

Short sales are completely irrelevent.

And that’s why you had to move your family to the podunks.

You don't read well, do you? I already stated in the other thread you hijacked that we live in one of the top 20 metro areas now.

Just as an fyi--the median household income in your beloved Irvine is ~85K. So, I guess we could have easily lived in Irvine, huh?

Guess 75% of people in Irvine live in 2BD/1BA 30 yr old homes then. Doesn't sound like somewhere I'd want to live--but that's just me.

I'm always interested in what kind of loan mods are happening today. Here's a story about a military family facing foreclosure that a local station aired. Note that this is not a WF loan.
A little history first from PS and the recorders office.
Purchased 2001 for $295k (10% down payment with Downey S&L).
Refied in 2005 for $410k (Long Beach Mortgage).
In 2007, I see another Deed of Trust with HOMECOMINGS FINANCIAL.
From what I can tell from the permit history (which may be incomplete), it looks like some foundation work was done on the home.
The loan modification Lisa negotiated for the Capristos sets their interest rate at 2 percent for five years, followed by 1 percent increases until it hits the ceiling of 5 percent.
When I read stories like this, I can't help but think of Japan. Hope these folks can afford the payments when it's fully amortizing.

Mr.Fantastic says

Yes, because the “median household income” mathematically translates into 75% of the people living in the city. Did you even graduate from college?

Of course it doesn't, but our household income was quite a bid above the median. Based on the household income distribution shown on the citydata website, we looked to be at least in the 75th percentile, if not higher.

Mr.Fantastic says

Also, why are you following me around on NYE?

You're awfully full of yourself, aren't you. I admit that I do like to respond to your posts, because they are usually so easy to make fun of.. But I think you are getting a little paranoid. I doubt if I respond to half of the garbage you post here.

Mr.Fantastic says

Regardless, think whatever you have to think to mask the pain of being forced out of California. Your wife will forgive you one day.

Still at it, huh? Does it really hurt that bad? Is CA that big a part of your self-esteem? Oh, by the way, I forgot to add that the median household income where we are now is $108K--what is that, around 25% higher than Irvine? Like I said, if you're happy there, it's all that matters.

The banks point of view having someone in there paying is better than just acumulating more shadow inventory.
I'm sure that their plan is to foreclose 5 years from now when the jobs and housing market has improved. Same plan with shadow inventory.

For the banks it doesn't matter whether or not these people can afford the full payment.

Mr.Fantastic says

tatupu70 says

Oh, by the way, I forgot to add that the median household income where we are now is $108K–what is that, around 25% higher than Irvine? Like I said, if you’re happy there, it’s all that matters.

So you moved from a place where you couldn’t afford a home to a place where you are considered poverty level? That actually sounds like a “Tatupu” financial decision.

Nope--we're still well above the median, thank you. And living very comfortably. I appreciate your concern though.

Mr.Fantastic says

No you aren’t. You only make 100k. If you are above the median of 108k like you claim it’s only because you’re considering a double income household. So without your wife, you’d be poverty level. That’s just not a smart financial decision. You are completely dependent on two incomes.

I know this is a difficult concept for you, but my post that you are so obsessed with says when I lived in CA, my salary was ~100K. That was several raises and once job change ago.

Further, we are talking about household income. So if you compare apples to apples, you include my wife who lives in my household. Or you exclude all 2nd income earners from the data, which would bring down the median significantly.

Finally, even if I were at the median, your ridiculous statement would imply that half of the people in every city are at the poverty level. So, you tell me--are 50% of the households in Irvine under the poverty level? Is that why you like it there?

Mr.Fantastic says

You said you moved jobs in 2010. Since when do companies give multiple raises over the course of a year in a declining economic situation. Somethings seems untrue about your story.

When did I say that? If I did, it was a mistake.

Mr.Fantastic says

Right, right. You made a “mistake”. It’s fun to play make believe isn’t it Tatupu?

Did you find the post then?

Mr.Fantastic says

The post where you claimed to make 100k?
Or the post where you complained NorCal was overpriced and you and your wife got forced out after renting for so long?

OK--you win. You can think whatever you want. I'm tired of this game--and that's saying something because I'm pretty stubborn. Nobody wants to read our back and forth. It's a new year and I'm going to try not to engage in this garbage any longer. Cheers.

Troy says

tatupu70 says

falling unemployment

unemployment actually isn’t “falling”, either.
from the article:
“Employers added a net total of only 39,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department said earlier this month, and the unemployment rose to 9.8 percent.
“Most economists expect the December jobs report will show larger job gains. The report comes out on Jan. 7. The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits rose in the week ending Dec. 18 to 4.13 million.”
~~
40,000 jobs and 9M jobseekers.
Are you beginning to see the problem here?

Update--Dec. ADP numbers out today.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jump-in-hiring-sends-bonds-apf-3820982577.html?x=0

297K jobs added. We'll see if it continues next year or not...

Mr. Fantastic - thanks for the laughs. Tatupu is known for putting his foot in his mouth.

Mr.Fantastic says

Well it’s not exactly hard. tatupu70 is one of the least educated people on this website about the economy, investing, and money in general. That’s saying a lot considering guys like ch_tah post here too.

And you are one of the most hilarious. Keep fighting the good fight Captain.

Another update:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/December-pending-home-sales-rb-323944565.html?x=0

Pending home sales rose again in December-index is up to 93.7. It has risen for 5 of the last 6 months.

This is a forward looking indicator. It is a much better gauge of the current and future housing market than the CS index. That tells us where the market used to be, not where it is going.

And before MF makes a big show about Yun's quotes in the article-I don't care what he says. It makes no difference. The index is the important thing.

Not really, since it's unknown how many of those pending will simply go back off the market.

It's near worthless.

CrazyMan says

Not really, since it’s unknown how many of those pending will simply go back off the market.
It’s near worthless.

Near worthless?? Come on--you're reaching.

It's certainly true that some of those sales won't make it to closing. But that was also true 2 months ago, 5 months ago, 1 year ago. So, a rise does indicate an improving market.

Like I said, near worthless. 1000 houses can go pending and only 1 of them actually sells. It's just not a useful statistic.

Obviously it's just better to look at actual closings.

CrazyMan says

Obviously it’s just better to look at actual closings.

As the saying goes: "hindsight is 20/20."

Mr.Fantastic says

True. With such a large amount of the market being short sales, that article is worthless to anyone who actually understands real estate.

OK Mr. Troll. Please tell me why pending and existing sales show such a strong correlation then?

CrazyMan says

Obviously it’s just better to look at actual closings.

Sure--if you want to know where the housing market was 3 months ago. If you want to know where it will be 3 months from now, pending home sales are a MUCH better indicator.

Sure, makes sense. Once you have the correlation of consistency between the 2 data sets (as Ace pointed out) then sure, it's a reasonable indicator. The only caveat would be if there is currently a reason for an anomaly, which there certainly could be. I don't analyze the data enough (or know enough) to see if there would be a reason for one, one way or the other.

But it's still just another data point, not the end all that it's being painted as. I'm sure pending home sales were up in 2005 and 2006 as well. Apparently that wasn't much of an indicator of where prices would go.

I agree it's just one data point--I didn't mean to paint it as the end all. Although it is a good one because it predicts the future fairly well.

CrazyMan says

I’m sure pending home sales were up in 2005 and 2006 as well. Apparently that wasn’t much of an indicator of where prices would go.

Actually it was a pretty good indicator back then. Here is a decent write up on it:

http://trendingrealestate.typepad.com/trendingrealestate/2008/09/a-historical-review-of-nar-pending-home-sales.html

CrazyMan says

I’m sure pending home sales were up in 2005 and 2006 as well.

2007 too for that matter (well, C-S was back up 1Q07 at least)

I know some people in South Central Texas that bought a new home because of the $8K tax credits. Now, because their property taxes have gone up (new homes are only taxed on the raw land for the first year), they can no longer make payments.

Crazy!

Yep - Texas taxes suck big ! 1/3 of my Fort Worth mortgage was property tax !

Mr.Fantastic says

tatupu70 says

Mr.Fantastic says

True. With such a large amount of the market being short sales, that article is worthless to anyone who actually understands real estate.

OK Mr. Troll. Please tell me why pending and existing sales show such a strong correlation then?

Strong correlations between two factors don’t explain an entire market. You wouldn’t know that because you bought into an overpriced albatross and are actively seeking ways to quiet the voices in your head that are saying “Sell now, sell now!”

I don't think you even know what the hell you are trying to say anymore.

tatupu70 says

I don’t think you even know what the hell you are trying to say anymore.

Tatupu, no offense, but you don't even understand a typical 401k plan.

joshuatrio says

tatupu70 says

I don’t think you even know what the hell you are trying to say anymore.

Tatupu, no offense, but you don’t even understand a typical 401k plan.

lol--you're still on that? You need to look in a mirror josh. I just got tired of trying to explain it to you. You obviously weren't listening (or reading).

Mr.Fantastic says

tatupu also once bragged that he made “100k” and lived in an area where the median income was “108k” and owned a nice home there.
He justified this by saying “my wife makes a great income.”
This guy spends all day on the internet lying about his salary while his wife goes to work. I find that hilarious.

Ah--I wondered how long it would be until you brought up your favorite subject. Me. Nice that you characterize it as bragging-that's pretty funny. I imagine my income is well below average on this site--but I don't really care.

I don't know what you mean by "justified". Justified what exactly? You obviously don't know that word means.... And I never said my wife makes a great income. So I'll add the proper use of quotation marks to the list of things you don't understand...

joshuatrio says

Yep - Texas taxes suck big ! 1/3 of my Fort Worth mortgage was property tax !

Part of the reason Texas has lower property prices is because they have higher property taxes.

This correlation is rather elementary to understand, no?