patrick.net

15 thousand out of 300 thousand. That's about 5% of option ARMs.

ch_tah, I'm really sorry you got yourself into an overpriced albatross... but those token gestures by the banks won't save your house from going down in value. Its a drop in the bucket.
Banks simply can't afford to modify a large portion of those time bombs, they don' t have the money.

Serpentor, you don't have to feel sorry for me. I'm very happy with our purchase. I'm not sure why you feel the need to attack me personally when I post a fact-based article.

I find it interesting that when your buddy posts a map of pre-foreclosures and foreclosures with a tiny amount of dots, you guys accept that as proof that prices are going to crash down. You even cite option ARMs as the reason why there are only a few now, but there will be a lot more once they recast. Then, when someone posts something contradictory to your view, it's "a drop in the bucket." Ok. I see. Everything that justifies your side is true, valid and perfect and nothing else matters. I would think if you wanted to make a rational decision you would weigh all of the data, not just what proves your point right. Permabear?

Serpentor says

ch_tah, I’m really sorry you got yourself into an overpriced albatross… but those token gestures by the banks won’t save your house from going down in value. Its a drop in the bucket.

Banks simply can’t afford to modify a large portion of those time bombs, they don’ t have the money.

I think banks have created loans that were meant to blow up financially in peoples faces, they just did not expect them all to go off at the same time. So now they are postponing a few (they will get their money from these folks later). It's an equivalent of saying, we'll screw you guys a few at a time, not all at once.

ch_tah says

Serpentor, you don’t have to feel sorry for me. I’m very happy with our purchase. I’m not sure why you feel the need to attack me personally when I post a fact-based article.
I find it interesting that when your buddy posts a map of pre-foreclosures and foreclosures with a tiny amount of dots, you guys accept that as proof that prices are going to crash down. You even cite option ARMs as the reason why there are only a few now, but there will be a lot more once they recast. Then, when someone posts something contradictory to your view, it’s “a drop in the bucket.” Ok. I see. Everything that justifies your side is true, valid and perfect and nothing else matters. I would think if you wanted to make a rational decision you would weigh all of the data, not just what proves your point right. Permabear?

Haha yeah you are so happy with your purchase that you feel the need to go on patrick.net to justify to yourself.. Sounds like someone has got some doubts.
Most of us are on this forum plan to buy eventually and not blind to real news. But this is simply a token gesture after being strong armed by the state attorney general. Try again.

Also most of the loans are securitized, and next to impossible to modify. These are mortgages are ones that did'nt get sold off to wall street

foreclosures aren't a problem. sure, keep living in that fantasy world.

RealtyTrac: Foreclosures Drop in November But Will Come Roaring Back in 2011

In fact, Sharga predicts more foreclosures next year: "2011 will be a record year again for foreclosure activity and for the number of bank repossessions," he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip.

What's continuing to drive the trend is high unemployment, weak demand and lending standards that remain tight.

Proving the old idiom, all real estate is local, 10 states account for 70% of the national foreclosures. No surprise, Nevada, California and Florida continue to lead the pack.

Mr.Fantastic says

Exactly. If you already bought a home, unless you’re an investor, why are you on Patrick.net again?

Sorry--I forgot that Pat.net is only for wanna be homebuyers to cry about how houses are too expensive...

And shout their doom and gloom predictions to other like minded individuals so they can tell each other how smart they are.

tatupu70 says

Mr.Fantastic says

Exactly. If you already bought a home, unless you’re an investor, why are you on Patrick.net again?

Sorry–I forgot that Pat.net is only for wanna be homebuyers to cry about how houses are too expensive…
And shout their doom and gloom predictions to other like minded individuals so they can tell each other how smart they are.

it's not our fault your house price has dropped.

tatupu70 says

Mr.Fantastic says

Exactly. If you already bought a home, unless you’re an investor, why are you on Patrick.net again?

Sorry–I forgot that Pat.net is only for wanna be homebuyers to cry about how houses are too expensive…
And shout their doom and gloom predictions to other like minded individuals so they can tell each other how smart they are.

So...why are you here? Why waste your time here trying to save us from being "priced out forever"?

anon says

it’s not our fault your house price has dropped.

lol--did I ever say that I'm a homeowner?

For the record, when I was in CA. in 2005-2008, I rented because it was MUCH cheaper. When I moved back to the midwest, I rented for awhile then bought in 2009. I refied this year and the appraisal came back $20K higher than my purchase price. Don't know if it's accurate or not, but I'm not too worried about the value of my house.

Serpentor says

So…why are you here? Why waste your time here trying to save us from being “priced out forever”?

Why are you here?

I enjoy the information and enjoy reading the message boards...

tatupu70 says

anon says

it’s not our fault your house price has dropped.

lol–did I ever say that I’m a homeowner?

it's obvious you're a home owner.

anon says

tatupu70 says

anon says

it’s not our fault your house price has dropped.

lol–did I ever say that I’m a homeowner?

it’s obvious you’re a home owner.

Does my clear complexion and postive attitude give me away?

tatupu70 says

And when did ch-tah say one article is proof that prices won’t drop more? Where in the hell did that come from??

come on man, lets not play games here. ok lets settle this, Ch_tah, do you think prices will drop or not?

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

So…why are you here? Why waste your time here trying to save us from being “priced out forever”?

Why are you here?
I enjoy the information and enjoy reading the message boards…

I enjoy making fun of the screwed house owners.

^^ lol

Serpentor says

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

So…why are you here? Why waste your time here trying to save us from being “priced out forever”?

Why are you here?
I enjoy the information and enjoy reading the message boards…

I enjoy making fun of the screwed house owners.

And I enjoy making fun of doom and gloomers

tatupu70 says

No one is ignoring the bad news. I’m not sure how you can read pat.net and think bad news is being ignored…

ok lets have a test here. since you have not ignored the bad news. where do you think prices are headed?

lets recap: shadow inventory, large number of underwater homes, strategic defaults, unemployment, rates going up, resets and recast time bombs, forclosure-gate mess, insolvent Fanny & Freddy, suspension of mark to market accounting... did I miss anything?

Serpentor says

tatupu70 says

No one is ignoring the bad news. I’m not sure how you can read pat.net and think bad news is being ignored…

ok lets have a test here. since you have not ignored the bad news. where do you think prices are headed?
lets recap: shadow inventory, large number of underwater homes, strategic defaults, unemployment, rates going up, resets and recast time bombs, forclosure-gate mess, insolvent Fanny & Freddy, suspension of mark to market accounting… did I miss anything?

Obviously it varies based on location. Some areas have already fallen back to normal levels, while some may still have further to drop.

But, overall, I think it depends much more on the health of the overall economy then it does on the most of the stuff you mention above. If unemployment stays high, then home prices will have a hard time moving up. But if the economy heats up, companies are hiring, and we start to see some inflation, then I think prices will go up.

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

tatupu70 says

No one is ignoring the bad news. I’m not sure how you can read pat.net and think bad news is being ignored…

ok lets have a test here. since you have not ignored the bad news. where do you think prices are headed?

lets recap: shadow inventory, large number of underwater homes, strategic defaults, unemployment, rates going up, resets and recast time bombs, forclosure-gate mess, insolvent Fanny & Freddy, suspension of mark to market accounting… did I miss anything?

Obviously it varies based on location. Some areas have already fallen back to normal levels, while some may still have further to drop.
But, overall, I think it depends much more on the health of the overall economy then it does on the most of the stuff you mention above. If unemployment stays high, then home prices will have a hard time moving up. But if the economy heats up, companies are hiring, and we start to see some inflation, then I think prices will go up.

typical non-answer, as expected.

Sorry--that question doesn't lend itself to a yes/no answer. Would you like to be more specific in your question? Were you talking about Bay Area or US in general? Median price, Case Shiller? What is your time period? 6 months? 1 year? 5 years?

tatupu70 says

Sorry–that question doesn’t lend itself to a yes/no answer. Would you like to be more specific in your question? Were you talking about Bay Area or US in general? Median price, Case Shiller? What is your time period? 6 months? 1 year? 5 years?

Obviously most of the price fluctions are going to be in the bubble areas, the other areas like the Midwest are just collateral damage. Time frame? between now and 2013 (12month after the peak of the reset bomb)
Will the areas that are currently inflated compared to historical levels drop or not?

Serpentor says

tatupu70 says

Sorry–that question doesn’t lend itself to a yes/no answer. Would you like to be more specific in your question? Were you talking about Bay Area or US in general? Median price, Case Shiller? What is your time period? 6 months? 1 year? 5 years?

Obviously most of the price fluctions are going to be in the bubble areas, the other areas like the Midwest are just collateral damage. Time frame? between now and 2013.
Will the areas that are currently inflated compared to historical levels drop or not?

I still think that's a pretty broad question, but I don't believe in fortress areas. My opinion is that areas that are significantly higher than historical levels or where rent/buy spreads are high will probably drop. Like I said earlier--when I lived in CA., I rented.

tatupu70 says

Serpentor says

tatupu70 says

Sorry–that question doesn’t lend itself to a yes/no answer. Would you like to be more specific in your question? Were you talking about Bay Area or US in general? Median price, Case Shiller? What is your time period? 6 months? 1 year? 5 years?

Obviously most of the price fluctions are going to be in the bubble areas, the other areas like the Midwest are just collateral damage. Time frame? between now and 2013.
Will the areas that are currently inflated compared to historical levels drop or not?

I still think that’s a pretty broad question, but I don’t believe in fortress areas. My opinion is that areas that are significantly higher than historical levels or where rent/buy spreads are high will probably drop. Like I said earlier–when I lived in CA., I rented.

So ... where is our disagreement? thats my position (and many others here) all along, nobody is predicting the world to end.

The mother of all recessions happend and is still on-going, we were in the brink of a depression, many pillars of our financial industry collapsed, many people lost their jobs and/or homes... the recovery is not going to happen overnight especially when the underlying sickness hasn't been cured yet.

I don't know if we do disagree. But, I don't call someone an underwater homeowner if they post an article off of yahoo...

based on his response, my assement was accurate.

Serpentor says

based on his response, my assement was accurate.

You must live in a different world than I do. Please show me where he said he's underwater.

ok, if we're going to play that game: show me where I said he's underwater?

Serpentor, as I've answered you before, I think prices will at most decline modestly. The only thing I can say with some confidence is that prices will not crash like many of you expect. This view is specific to better parts of the BA.

Other quick questions to answer:
I'm a homeowner, I own two rental properties (you can decide if I'm an investor or not), I bought my primary residence few months ago and put down 25+%, so the chances of me being underwater are exactly 0%. No need to argue about who said I'm underwater or not.

To address the ignoring bad news BS, that's simply another made up argument by you, Serpentor. I never said everything was super-fantastic in the market. I agree there are plenty of potential issues out there. I understand there are lots of foreclosures (not necessarily in the better parts of the BA). I disagree with some of you about the impact that they will have on this area. I also disagree that government intervention will have little effect.

Btw, through past modification efforts had all failed miserably, I think this actually has a decent chance of helping a few people. We shall see.

Define "decline modestly". 5%? 15%? 25%?

5-10%

even with that small of a %drop, thats like 1-2 year's tuition at Stanford or a brand new Porsche Boxster for a typical Fortress house.
Given the choice of 1, renting the same place for a few years at half the monthy cost, then buying the same house for the same price plus a free Porsche or 2. buy now. Which would you pick?

edit...I guess you already made your choice. oopsie

ch_tah says

Serpentor, you don’t have to feel sorry for me. I’m very happy with our purchase.

Well there has to be some internal doubt if you're dreaming up "rising interest rates" as a reason prices will go up.

Serpentor says

even with that small of a %drop, thats like 1-2 year’s tuition at Stanford or a brand new Porsche Boxster for a typical Fortress house.

Given the choice of 1, renting the same place for a few years at half the monthy cost, then buying the same house for the same price plus a free Porsche or 2. buy now. Which would you pick?

You're criticizing me for being stupid by purchasing a house now, and you use spending the money on a PORSCHE as one of your examples of what could have been done with the money. Hmmm...ok. Maybe you should stop worrying about buying fancy cars and someday you too will be able to buy a house.

In case you need help reading, I said "at most" decline modestly. I also think there's a chance prices will go up.

As for Klarek and Mr. Fantastic, there's plenty of historical evidence of prices increasing while rates increase, so I don't see how that shows any internal doubt.

whats a worse finiancial decision: throwing $75grand away in the trash, or use that same money and buying a car that has lower depreciation and higher reliability then most cars?

I don't own a Porsche or feel the need to buy one, but I know what I would do given the 2 choices.

edit. Subtitute Standford education or 50,000 hambergers with Porsche if you are not into the car thing.

Serpentor says

whats a worse finiancial decision: throwing $75grand away in the trash, or use that same money and buying a car that has lower depreciation and higher reliability then most cars?
I don’t own a Porsche or feel the need to buy one, but I know what I would do given the 2 choices.

If that were the choice, then I don't think anyone would argue with you. But, that's not really the choice...

tat is correct. You assume there were only 2 choices. If given those choices, I'd rather just keep my cash rather than waste it on a fancy car. But, why do you completely disregard the third option of prices going up? You criticize me for denying reality, yet you don't even consider prices going up as a possibility at all. Did you believe housing prices couldn't go up in 2009? They did. Did you believe that stocks couldn't go up in 2009? Prices really went up there and are still going up.