patrick.net

I agree. i live in Miami florida (aventura) which has been identified as one of the most underwater locations and there seems to be a very short supply of single family homes available a reasonable prices. The vast majority of homes for sale are asking pre-bubble pricing.

Growing a little concerned OP?

It clearly depends on the area. Half your neighborhood could be in the process of being foreclosed on. Maybe not.

If there's no demand, it really doesn't matter what the supply is.

Lots of for sale signs around my neck of the woods. They don't sell though, they just sit and are then taken off the market. People are still expecting to sell at bubble prices.

A huge number of homes are either already in bank inventory but not yet listed or in default but not yet foreclosed. That said, this won't be the case in all neighborhoods - the trick is knowing which ones, esp. when folks are not paying but don't yet have an NOD filed.

In Woodland Hills where we live there are tons of foreclosures. Just the signs are not posted, here for whatever the reason it's kept a secret for most of the time.

I am seeing the same thing as the OP where I live: Southern AZ and in the cities of the nearby market of the Imperial Valley, CA (Calexico, El Centro, Imperial, and Brawley). I am looking for both a SFR and units. Nothing good stays on the market very long, not short-sales, foreclosues or traditionals.

And there is no huge inventory. There are the dead horses comprised of beat-up foreclosures and houses for sale by owners who think it's still 2005 but that is always the case in any market. Good deals and properties in good condition and a fair deal are usually gone in a week. You must be prepared to act, be pre-approved, and have cash. I have lost two income properties to cash buyers!

Of course, I am looking in the low to low middle range and others including Patrick have pointed out that these price points have stabilized. But I just don't get the unrelenting doom and gloom of some of the old hands on this forum. I do not see any basis for it in the markets where I live.

ChrisLosAngeles says

In Woodland Hills where we live there are tons of foreclosures. Just the signs are not posted, here for whatever the reason it’s kept a secret for most of the time.

Hey chris,

My wife and I are actually looking to buy in your area by thr end of 2011 or early 2012... How do u like Woodland Hills compared to say Granada Hills, Northridge, or West Hills.... We are looking to live in El camino real, Taft, or Granada Hills charter school district.

"Growing a little concerned OP?"

Actually I think about rising property taxes far more than I do about home prices.

The same here in northern virginia. The market has dried up, because it's winter?
Something interesting is, I often see those houses with realtor lock and sale sign, that are not showing up in MLS. Some are up on redfin for a week or so, then magically disappear. I don't think those houses are off the list because they are sold or under contract. They're sitting there for monthes, then will be back on the list w/ higher price tag. These people just don't want to let peak price go.

Where is All the Inventory? Banks have the keys to all the locks placed at the front door. I see the locks as is for long time....and the short sales? still drag on for months with no end result. I hope I answered your question.

I've seen several instances where shortsalers do not really want to sell the house. They are hoping to drag the process as long as possible because they are not paying a penny and living free, or even collecting rent without paying mortgage if they are land lord. Banks may have difficulty to determine if the short saler is truthful or just gaming the system. In the end, the longer the process, the happier the underwater owners.

CrazyMan says

growing a little concerned OP?

Are you saying HousingWatcher used to go by another name?

dan1970 says

I agree. i live in Miami florida (aventura) which has been identified as one of the most underwater locations and there seems to be a very short supply of single family homes available a reasonable prices. The vast majority of homes for sale are asking pre-bubble pricing.

How would you know that to be true or untrue? Aventura is a City of Codo buildings, have you surveyed all of those units in every building? I would suspect a community like Aventura wouldn't look like Hollywood Lakes where you can drive by, and if not see realtor signs, at least see that it is empty and unlived in.

Where are Single family homes in Aventura?

it's possible that nobody can sell at these prices.

toothfairy says

it’s possible that nobody can sell at these prices.

What do you mean?

i mean too many people are underwater so they cant sell.

HousingWatcher,

Here is some inventory, right here in San Franscisco (the city and county).

http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2011/01/end_of_year_2010_listed_san_francisco_housing_inventory.html

Since June 2010, the inventory has been higher than any of the years 2006-2010, except December is marginally lower than Dec 2008.

So your little anecdote from some unspecified town in New Jersey is just that, an unverified anecdote.

I just checked the zip code I want to buy in.

It has exactly 94 Bank Owned, About 110 Preforeclosures, and about 110 homes scheduled for Auction.

That's half as much since the last time I checked. The Bank Owned remains about the same. Not sure how I'd account for the ones that aren't paying with no NOD's filed. I would think that the bank would at least file a NOD and let it sit in preforeclosure to show the owner that they mean business.

vain says

It has exactly 94 Bank Owned, About 110 Preforeclosures, and about 110 homes scheduled for Auction.

And what about plain old listings, how are they doing. If we are talking Daily City they are perhaps following SF closely?

justme says

vain says

It has exactly 94 Bank Owned, About 110 Preforeclosures, and about 110 homes scheduled for Auction.

And what about plain old listings, how are they doing. If we are talking Daily City they are perhaps following SF closely?

There is not much inventory in the Daly City zip code 94015 that I am looking at. I would think Daly City mirrors parts of SF. Most are short sales, and some dellusional owners. Any REO that comes on the market will go pending within a couple of days if it was priced right. Prices in general are lower than 2009 prices in this zip code.

The 94 REO's I was referring to were not based on MLS listings. The owner is the bank per county records and I'd say 90% of them are not on the MLS. The estimated preforeclosures and homes scheduled for auction were not based on MLS either. Only county records. Again, most of them are not even on the market.

So it seems there is quite a bit of shadow inventory in this area. I'm pretty sure 94 REO's will kill the prices here if it were all on the market.

Inventory on the Monterey Peninsula has been pretty steady for about a year now - however it seems like none of the homes are actually selling. I'm starting to see small price drops again (5-10k) in the bottom end of the market..... Wonder if this thing will pick up steam, or just slowly bleed itself to death.

Anyways, 2009 clearly wasn't the bottom. Most of the folks I know that were desperate to buy a house during the bubble, ended up buying last year. Parts of the east coast that I follow are starting to cut prices again...

Just a couple "local" observations.

Bubble Bobble says

Houses are vacant everywhere, but the banks only list a small percentage of them to prevent the general public from noticing that supply is through the roof.

Pretty much what I have observed as well.

seaside says

These people just don’t want to let peak price go.

I have also observed this. I wonder how they justify the carrying costs though.

zzyzzx says

I have also observed this. I wonder how they justify the carrying costs though.

Because they are stuck with the house that they overpaid, can't afford, are underwater, and haven't gotten to the point of walking away from (yet)? You tell me - are they stupid for continuing to pay up or are they smart to wait for the hyperinflation so they can pay off their mortgage with one weeks pay at McDonalds? What should they do?

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

I think what America needs is to deregulate the banks.

All these regulations just impede progress and empower marxist regulators who hate Freedom.

yeah they'll police themselves. they're there to help you. just let them run with it. ha ha ha
lets try and think past the fox news BS.

I love it when you people turn around and thank the people who just F'ed you in the A.

poor bankers.

Also look at house rentals. Those could be going up.

Our next door neighbors moved for jobs, put their house up for rent but seemed couldn’t keep good tenants, then a year or so later put it up for sale. Turned out they had bought the house before the bubble, probably took out a HELOC or who knows what, then went into foreclosure. The sale price is more than their paid price.

Could be a combination of shame, pride, and hope, but those houses are coming down. Of course, this is in Florida.

ther's a lot of competing forces at play though.

As the economy recovers you'll also see less strategic defaults as people hold out for the recovery.

Since they've held on this long what's a few more years to see if the market has improved?
The annual holding costs are actually pretty low when compared to the alternative of trashing your credit and
being forced to rent (while the housing recovery passes you by).

Cash for houses or how about houses for the troops? Might be an easier sell.

stoltzfus4life says

Well, even though the bubble years led to some surplus in aggregate inventory, once TSHTF building and new construction didn’t just slow, it grinded to a halt.

I'm thinking that once the oversupply (and a lot of it appears in the hands of the banks right now perhaps?) is consumed the market will return to slow-and-easy historical appreciation. The big question for me is when will this happen and what is the starting point. Based on the boom/bust, this will probably be more "localized" and the crappy markets will diverge from the markets that can/have/will absorb the oversupply.

I wouldn't be surprised if some markets OVERCORRECT (or possibly already have) and have a small bump in sales price.

After all, some places are more desirable than others and anyone who thinks supply/demand has nothing to do with the housing market has their head, as my grandfather used to say, "where the sun don't shine".

Yes, this is probably an oversimplification but where am I wrong here?

toothfairy says

houses for the troops

an excellant idea.

The Section 8 welfare system (or whatever new name they use to keep the public off their backs) has put enough non-Americans into a house .... maybe we can help our guys and gals a little bit now. Great idea.

EightBall says

zzyzzx says

I have also observed this. I wonder how they justify the carrying costs though.

Because they are stuck with the house that they overpaid, can’t afford, are underwater, and haven’t gotten to the point of walking away from (yet)? You tell me - are they stupid for continuing to pay up or are they smart to wait for the hyperinflation so they can pay off their mortgage with one weeks pay at McDonalds? What should they do?

I'm not expecting wages in the US to be adjusted for inflation in any inflationary event.

Los Angeles Renter says

ChrisLosAngeles says

In Woodland Hills where we live there are tons of foreclosures. Just the signs are not posted, here for whatever the reason it’s kept a secret for most of the time.

Hey chris,
My wife and I are actually looking to buy in your area by thr end of 2011 or early 2012… How do u like Woodland Hills compared to say Granada Hills, Northridge, or West Hills…. We are looking to live in El camino real, Taft, or Granada Hills charter school district.

Depends on which parts of Woodland Hills you are looking at. If I were you I'd avoid Woodland Hills (at least area closer to Tarzana / Reseda), it seems a little dangerous to be there right now. Last year 2 murders occurred there. It was very uneasy to look at police pulling a corpse from our neighbors house. (Random murders). Up in the hills there are a lot of areas with septic tanks, but outside of that I don't know how that area is.

West Hills seems like they have much better schools and a better area in general. If I were you I'd go there, but I only know someone who lives there, I have not lived there myself.

I also hear a lot of positive about Granada Hills, but I have not lived there. I have a friend who lives there if you want me to ask him.

Hope this helps.