patrick.net

Didn't mean to get on my soapbox. I'm sure Jack can tell the other side and make being childless look like nirvana. But I will stand up and be counted with those who think having children is the best decision I ever made. (other than marrying my wonderful husband)

I am just not sure how well I can protect my children from the negative intangibles of this evil world.

There will always be risk in the world, but you should never let it stop you from living your life. Don't be motivated by fear.

SactoQt,
Nicely put.
I think children add the spice to life.

AntiTroll from Oz

Thank you

Peter P

I will add that for some reason having children does enable you to look at thinks from a more optimistic pov. I think it's because the world is so fascinating through the eyes of a child, and you forget this until you get to experience it again with your own.

OK
I'm done

One of the most confusing things for me is the high P/E ratios for all capital holdings nowadays - even equities are at historically high P/Es. Bonds too, as well as assets.

Max, could it be that all capital holdings --real or financial-- are due for a correction? I certainly hope not, because we'll need for equities to pick up the slack when housing-driven consumption plummets.

Harm,
Maybe the pension funds are supporting the markets, and a correction will only be achieved as people draw down on their funds.

Wow, SactoQt -- You really put things into perspective!

You put all the materialistic money-grubbing yuppies to shame. Sounds like wealth can't hold a candle to parenthood.

Heck, your speech might even have the power turn MP into a kind, generous, open-minded... WHO THE HELL AM I KIDDING?? It will go right over his head!

Heck, your speech might even have the power turn MP into a kind, generous, open-minded… WHO THE HELL AM I KIDDING?? It will go right over his head!

Lol
With any luck the rapid improvement we've seen in MP is just an indication of greater improv... *snort...chuckle....sniffle* er....improvements to come. :)

Heck, your speech might even have the power turn MP into a kind, generous, open-minded…

MP did open up quite a bit don't you think? ;)

I still think that I will be a horrible parent. Perhaps my view is going to change in a few years...

Peter P

Now who's selling themselves short? ;)
You seem very thoughtful, I think you'd do very well. Besides, you have insurance on your cat, you couldn't be all that bad.

Maybe the pension funds are supporting the markets, and a correction will only be achieved as people draw down on their funds.

In that case I will have more faith in stocks. The governemt can still flood the market with more debt (the return of US30). There is no massive IPO second-wave yet...

Getting late and my much mentioned children will be up early. Nite all.

SactoQt, thanks for your encouragement.

@ Mr.Right,

RE: Krugman, I will repeat what I posted in the other thread:

"I would not fall into the trap of buying into the “broken clock” theory, or blaming someone for being too prescient. After all, didn’t Greenspan himself call the NASDAQ bubble 4 years too early with that “irrational exhuberance” speech? Imagine if people had actually listened to him then, instead of cowing him into submission?

Calling the exact top to any asset bubble it difficult at best, impossible at worst, because (all together now!): Asset bubbles tend to last much longer and grow far bigger than any reasonable person at the time would have thought possible. Missing the exact peak doesn’t mean there's no bubble, any more than missing the exact trough proves there was no correction.

Yes, if you put off a buying decision 100% because of listening to the “early birds” you missed out on some juicy paper gains. On the other hand, if you bought recently using an NAAVLP and overextended to the hilt, you’ll soon come to wish you had listened to the early birds instead. And as to those recent paper gains… “What the market giveth, the market taketh away.”

Another thing that gets me is how quick bulls are to pounce on anyone who questions the “wisdom” of gambling on bubble-inflated assets, while uber-bulls are NEVER criticized, no matter how horribly wrong they are.

Take those two idiots who wrote “Dow 36,000″ right before the tech bubble burst — James K. Glassman & Kevin Hassett. You might think they’d be hiding out, hanging their heads in shame/ignominy. But, you’d be wrong! Guess where they are now? A: still writing for the Washington Post, National Review, etc. and shilling their clueless bull$hit to the unsuspecting public."

Max,
Does the real economy include the factories and businesses in China?
Globalisation has meant that the economic system now includes many more types of forces and politics that operate differently to the traditional models.

Max, I hope you are right. That would be the best possible outcome in my book --having the equities/business sector pick up the slack in the economy, while home prices gradually fall back to the historic mean. A shallow and hopefully short-lived recession, followed by sustainable growth and wage gains.

There has been a lot of talk about the European Middle Class (EMC) on this thread, and I would like to put in my $.02. Firstly it seems many people on this site seem to idealize the EMC, they aren’t doing as good as it seems many people think. Unemployment is huge on the Continent, Great Britain ain’t doing so good either. They’ve lost their blue collar manufacturing base, and there is no upward mobility anymore (if there ever was). Over regulation has destroyed Europe, they are not efficient or competitive. I really don’t want the U.S. to turn into what Europe has become.

Any former/current European residents out there care to repsond? ptiemann?

I lived in the UK several months as an exchange student 15 years ago, which is hardly enough time to give me a wholistic picture of the entire region, but it didn't seem horribly bleak and at least everyone had healthcare and a place to live. It wasn't any Socialist Shangri-La , either. Plenty of evidence that the old Imperial/generational class structure was still in place, and most working class people lived quite modestly by our standards.

There has been a lot of talk about the European Middle Class (EMC) on this thread, and I would like to put in my $.02. Firstly it seems many people on this site seem to idealize the EMC, they aren’t doing as good as it seems many people think...and there is no upward mobility anymore (if there ever was).

Sure, I'll be first to say my knowledge is very limted (and to Switzerland only) I wasn't so much a resident, as an extended visitor. In general, people I know do generally well over there--but their definition of "doing well" is rather different than here. From what I saw, 'SMC' people tend to make do on a lot less; it's a social ethic. Agreed on the 'upward mobility' aspect. If you don't like your cr@ppy bank job in Zürich, it's pretty hard to remake your career midstream. However, I would like their unemployment benefits, which struck me as rather generous (80% of annual salary I recall).

So which parts of Europe have housing prices that are 10X salaries?

I bet those are the bubble parts. Face Reality, why would you think that we are becoming like that on a national basis?

New thread: Construction Quality.

inquiring mind Says:
Hmmm….no new posts in 3 hours….no new links in 2 days….time to spice things up around here HARM & Patrick!

Um, well, I do have a paying job and life to tend to. And my time here is donated, sooo... how about a new thread from YOU, inquiring mind? ;-)

The writer doesn’t seem to know much about FAnnie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc. Their loans are NOT, repeat NOT guaranteed by th eFederal Gov.

We know. This is why I will not touch any fund with MBS exposure. However, even the credit rating agencies said that the rating of Fannie depends on the implicit federal guarantee.

if you know where to find it, or know what a charter is.

If you have such a low opinion of us, do not bother posting here.

This is pretty idiotic. What an arrogant ass.

Takes one to know, eh, Carter?

I obviously touched a raw nerve here or two. You work for the BLS or something? You know, last time I checked the intro said these were "my ideas", not "GOD'S ETERNAL TRUTH".

If you don't agree with them, how about posting your own ideas --if you have any.

Btw, Carter,

If you'd really like to learn more about why I (and many others on this blog and elsewhere) believe the official CPI numbers are fudged, or why the taxpayer is still likely to get stuck bailing out the GSEs DESPITE AG's public assurances to the contrary, go back and read the older threads.

You might learn something. However, given your rude insulting tone, I doubt that learning anything is your true aim here.

Carter basically admitted he's a realtor. I'd be interested to know how long he's held that position. My guess-- he used to be in tech.

The writer doesn’t seem to know much about FAnnie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc. Their loans are NOT, repeat NOT guaranteed by the Federal Gov

BUT, doesn't the following apply:-

If you owe the bank 1 million, then you have a problem.
But if you owe the bank 100 million, then the bank has a problem.

Appraisers contribute virtually nothing to the process because they
basically count bedrooms and bathrooms and square footage.

BUT don't they green light the big fat loan.

Disregard all those posts at the end of this thread (except from AntiTroll) Some dumbAss realtor using the same IP address keeps changing their email and screen name to appear as different people and then proceeds to post retarded no logic posts. What a tool. And we thought MP had no life...

Disregard all those posts at the end of this thread ...

"John Tommy, Lincoln Jones, Jenny Flockhart" why do those sound like bogus spammer names?

Hey Tommy Lincoln Flockhart--got any Albanian petrol-pyramid stock? I want in.

“John Tommy, Lincoln Jones, Jenny Flockhart” why do those sound like bogus spammer names?

Add "Susan Lamswitch, Ron Klein & Kevin Bartlett". All are the same troll, and all are history now.

And we thought MP had no life…

MP

I'm not taking a shot at you here. I was just commenting that before your recent reincarnation as the reasonable MP we called you our resident troll. You at least were willing to stick to one identity and actually managed to get us to talk to you. I for one have come to like you and a week ago I wouldn't have thought that possible.

The problem with acting as though this bubble is a catastrophe is
that it clearly is not. The price of housing has simply gotten too high and will decline. Predicting the collapse of western civilization is hardly
something that high house prices for a few years will effectuate.

Actually some companies did well through the depression.

AND, why be complacent about the risks involved. How many events in history are described as the "Rise and Fall of the ...."

We gladly accept contrarian opinions. Please refrain from using alias. We have IP information.

The many personalities is very annoying. Must keep deleting.

SactoQt, do you envision that one day, all personalities of this person will converge and we can all have real discussions?

Hmm, this Economist article says "personal disposable income per head" which must mean after taxes. GDP per person is $33k, so after taxes that must be more like $23k, so roughly $230k for a home.

Which puts the Bay Area much higher. Much much higher.

SactoQt, do you envision that one day, all personalities of this person will converge and we can all have real discussions?

If MP can become a meaningful member of the blog, anything is possible.

To the troll who keeps posting under different names (Lincoln Turner , Janet Klepec, John Tommy, Lincoln Jones, Jenny Flockhart, Susan Lamswitch, Ron Klein & Kevin Bartlett, etc.):

Why not just pick one personality and have a real discussion with us, as Peter & SactoQt suggested? You've already stopped the childish insults & name-calling, which is a good start. So why not go the extra mile, pick one screen name and become a real poster, just like all the other RE bulls here? We're not allergic to dissenting views here, if that's what you're afraid of.