patrick.net

Malcolm,

Interesting that the hybrid and advanced diesel is coming out now. It is as if the foreigners predicted the higher US gas prices and saw a way to capture US market share. After all, high gas prices have been the norm in Europe for quite a while, and they coped by building small cars/engines. When I was in England during the mid 90s, it was not uncommon to see cars with sporting a "1.0 Litre" badge..

$4? Premium was at 4.99.

I know a year ago or so I predicted prices would drop with an economic slowdown. I have to say that prediction was wrong but probably irrelevant since those who actually want to take control of their wellbeing are going to make the switch and it will not even matter.

I still think if we really do slowdown there will be a short term glut of oil in production. I believe that the handwriting is on the wall and like any typical industry they are just maxing out the revenues while they can. The world is going to be very different starting next year.

The timing is what is killing our car makers because predicting hybrid market share was counterintuitive.
That's the reward of doing what's right instead of merely following and guessing market trends. Everyone here is richer for not following the housing trend up, and that's what happened in the auto industry. That's why the billybobs will always live a backwards life with a poor quality of life.

I'm glad I checked the blog today. I've been working a lot but today I have a headache so I'm going in later.

ShortTermCapitalMgmt,

Those are big electric performance motorcycles. Have not seen them. But I can tell you that China is full of small moped-meets-bycycle-sized electrical cycles, Little ones that will get you around town in a very effective manner. Nice to see.

Malcolm,

I'm with you on the gender role thing. Let's just leave it at that for now.

Regarding the cleanliness diesels, "true believers" will tell you:
Other references show that at the very worst, exhaust from engines with DPFs are indistinguishable from the intake air in terms of PM numbers (http://www.aecc.be/en/content/pdf/AECC%20Newsletter%20March-April%202007.pdf, “Report on Ultrafine Particles”, page 7).

Sorry about the UCSD/SDSU mix up. In fact, when I first read about it years ago, I distinctly remember being impressed that these were folks within the State University system.

The oil was paid for.
It certainly was!
Have to admit I started getting excited hearing Amory Lovins talking about how the military has converted to using "the fully burdened cost of fuel" when calculating expenditures for military vehicles. The times they are a-changin'...

I was kidding on the SDSU thing though I am proud of them. I had a really good experience with their business program.

I think

"The oil was borrowed for"

might be a more correct expression, than

"The oil was paid for".

You’re right, gas *should* be $4/gal.

Your rent *should* be $4000/month.

I would guess the problem with an automotive diesel/electric hybrid is that it takes a lot more to start up a diesel engine than an otto engine. Most of the hybrid's efficiency comes from turning the gas engine off when not required and using regenerative braking.

Diesel/electric drives in locomotives and on subs don't shut the diesel off frequently.

Why, because I'm wasting so much space and not preserving it for future generations? Wrong!

The future generation will have their own economic equilibrium. Why do we have to preserve anything (other than jam) for them?

Malcom,

GM ripped out this country's public transportation network, and you called that doing things right? In case you don't know, they killed their own electric car too.

GM is a perfect example of a greedy and incompetently run company that I hope will go belly up as soon as possible, taking its idiot management and dumb workers along please.

It's a miracle that the Big 3s are not yet gone, I can hardly find any reason to buy an American branded vehicle. The other day when I read about GM's revival of 0 interest for 6 years, the deal-seeking part of me immediately went to their website to check out the cars to see if the price can justify. While I kept scrolling through their cars, I was saying to myself, crap, crap, crap, hmm, Saab, crapified, crap... I am a very easy consumer to convince because I am very price sensitive and I can let the deal overcome my preference, somehow I still cannot possibly bring myself to buy any GM vehicle.

How about a Cadillac CTS?

http://www.iihs.org/ratings/ratingsbyseries.aspx?id=309

Looks pretty safe.

A very, very unfortunate Supreme Court decision:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0626/p01s10-usju.html

It is beneficial to bring back the moral compass. Let's start by restricting no-fault divorces.

Enforcing private contracts *IS* the government's responsibility.

OO, I totally agree with you which is why I am confused about me ever saying they did anything right. Perhaps you are reading where I wrote it was unfortunate and interpreted it to mean that I am a fan. What I meant, and is clear in the overall context, is that it is unfortunate that it is the foreign car makers who have provided the solutions. I'm not anti American which is the only reason I think it is a shame. I am actually happy to see these small American startups springing up. I think it is going to be a good thing.
I am of course well aware of the EV1, ironically as I was driving in after posting earlier, I was thinking about the stories of people being forced to give their EV1s back under protest. How that wasn't a sign of market sentiment is beyond me. Even that very limited experiment generated large fanfare.

TOB, I guess Eve got them off to a bad start. :)

I guess there are many angles but for some reason modern day professional women seem to have a need to show that they can be just as sleezy as their boomer male role models.

ShortTermCapitalMgmt Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 10:22 am
"Malcolm,
Do you know anything about these electric cycles?"

I got sidetracked and didn't mean to not reply. I don't know much about them. During the EV1 days when electric car ranges were unacceptably short I did look into EV motorcycles only because their size did allow about 100+ mile range and they were about $25,000. I'm the kind of guy who looks for anything viable and then looks further to see if I can use it in a practical manner. I am not a fan of street motorcycles but if someone is I think they present a very good option.

Malcom,

I must have scanned through the posts in a hurry, sorry for the friendly fire.

I am glad that we are on the same page :-)

I like diesel mostly because:

1) it is not as flammable as gas
2) diesel engines have tons of torque

I like heavy cars. MPG is not as important. Let the market decide! :)

I'd like to see bridge tolls calculated based on vehicle's weight since the heavier vehicles put more strain on bridges. I'd like to see registration fee calculated based on vehicle's size/MPG - heavier vehicles wear higways more and pollute more. That'll be fair. And then let the market decide.

TOB,

Sorry, I totally missed your joke.

Bap33,

Just a quick one, maybe I will find the energy for more later:

1. I'm sure you agree that bad FM/Ford/Chrysler built-in-a-hurry technology from the 70s does not invalidate new 2009 technology. They were late to the party then just as they are now. Let us hope they do not repeat their mistakes, but instead do some good engineering,

2. Yeah, the reality of high energy costs will catch up with anyone. And even the US automakers will maybe eventually do the right thing. Meanwhile, Europe and Japan have been on the right track for many years already.

3. Power/Weight is a completely different metric than Energy/Distance (MPG). Race cars have great Power/Weight and lousy MPG, at ANY speed.

4. It sounds like you think that an engine can be built for (and more importantly SIZED for ) performance, and at the same time provide economy (=energy efficiency in my terminology) simply by driving it "nicely". I think this is not the case. The closest thing we have is a clean Turbodiesel. But is not sized foer a crazy V12 racecar with insane performance. It just has plenty of oomph for daily use.

I’d like to see bridge tolls calculated based on vehicle’s weight since the heavier vehicles put more strain on bridges.

I agree. It should also be calculated based on vehicle speed for similar reasons.

I’d like to see registration fee calculated based on vehicle’s size/MPG - heavier vehicles wear higways more and pollute more. That’ll be fair. And then let the market decide.

With toll roads and streets everywhere, we do not need the registration fee anymore. We do need to charge a pollution cleanup fee.

BAP, no one disagrees with your history lesson. This time it is different and the market has already decided. People are literally approaching Prius owners at gas stations offering to buy their cars from them because they don't want to wait. There is no subsidy in doing that, nor was there one for leasing one.

The home recharging model does make sense, and comparing reluctant manufactures of the past with market innovators of the present seems flawed to me. I have a strong feeling that our society does remember the days you are talking about. I believe government and industry are taking those lessons learned and realizing that this time it is not just an OPEC created embargo driving up prices. It is much more complicated. It involves everything from increased global demand, to remaining competitive because other countries have freed themselves by going to renewables. I guarantee if we had to do it all from scratch knowing what we know now, the conventional technologies wouldn't pencil out. I find it ironic that we have to defend incentivizing renewables when oil companies receive all sorts of subsidies and shelters, and hey what about the "gas tax holiday?" That sounds like government actually subsidizing our current habbits. Renewables now make sense, there's no way to argue against it.

The home recharging model does make sense, and comparing reluctant manufactures of the past with market innovators of the present seems flawed to me.

I would agree if retail electricity prices are unregulated.

I voted for that, turned out the free market wasn't the best way to run electric providers. I still don't know what went wrong with that. BTW, if SDG&E had its way there would be no net metering for solar. Doing the right thing sometimes does require government intervention, like mandating a PUBLIC utility get a percentage of its production from renewables, otherwise the free market just forces the same old thing until you end up with a crisis or a situation where only the wealthy can drive, or have electric power, or worse yet, those who are powerless get to have the waste from those who have dumped on them.

Yeah, I'm just not as pure of a free market type as our old friend Peter P.

During the EV1 days when electric car ranges were unacceptably short I did look into EV motorcycles only because their size did allow about 100+ mile range and they were about $25,000. I’m the kind of guy who looks for anything viable and then looks further to see if I can use it in a practical manner. I am not a fan of street motorcycles but if someone is I think they present a very good option.

I've never ridden a serious motorcycle, and I'm not about to start today. I thought they looked like pretty impressive machines for around $10K, though.

I'm more likely to buy an electric bicycle, or conversion kit. I commute by bicycle a bit today, about half of the time when the weather's nice enough. If I had electric assist I'd probably bike to more places, and in somewhat warmer weather (I'm in Phoenix).

Thanks,

STCM

otherwise the free market just forces the same old thing

If we charge polluters a cleanup fee, the situation will be different.

So the Fed decided to keep things the way they are, but just TALK about a stronger dollar and how bad inflation is getting.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/fed_interest_rates;_ylt=AgAek2VFxIVfUQFCh04SyMes0NUE

Bernanke, in a rare public utterance for a Fed chief, also has sounded a warning that the slide in the U.S. dollar could contribute to a rise in inflation. He has sought to use words — instead of action — to bolster the dollar and try to lessen inflation pressures.

No Heller today. Crap.....

OO,

Your posts relative to the machinations of the power structure are exactly correct. I stopped being amazed at the state of complete "unawareness" of the majority of the US populace, even among my educated graduate degree crowd.

Folks simply don't understand that the moneyed interests have created a virtual monopoly of profits across critical major industries including notably chemical, steel, oil, and auto.

This cabal has created a regulatory regime which creates significant barriers to entry for competition, stifles innovation, and destroys the commons.

Even this hybrid crap is nonsense.

There is absolutely zero technological reason why we all should not be driving cars that weigh less than 200 lbs, getting the equivalent of 200 miles to the oil gallon, while providing better safety. The materials engineering science has been suitably advanced for some time.

Tragic and despicable.

Of course, what industries would not exist under this scenario?

HIGH AND RISING world oil and food prices, the implosion of the US housing bubble and the ensuing consumer credit vapour lock have cash-strapped US consumers staying out of retail stores in droves, and this is forcing dozens of US retailers to close hundreds of stores.

Information technology related companies that are closing stores include CompUSA going out of business, Sprint Nextel closing 125 locations, Movie Gallery closing 560 movie rental outlets, and bankrupt Sharper Image shutting down 90 to 180 stores.

Other retailers shutting down shops are: Ann Taylor, 117 stores; Eddie Bauer, 29 stores; Cache, 20 to 23 stores; Lane Bryant, 150 stores; Talbots, 100 stores; Gap, 85 stores; Foot Locker, 140 stores; Wickes going out of business; Levitz going out of business; Zales, 105 stores; Disney, 98 stores; Home Depot, 15 stores; Macy’s, 9 stores; Pep Boys, 33 stores; Ethan Allen, 12 stores; Wilsons, 158 stores; Pacific Sunwear, 228 stores; Bombay Company, 384 stores; KB Toys, 356 stores; and Dillards, six stores. Sheesh kebab!

The US financial sector has already been decimated by the fallout from the recent subprime mortgage fiasco. Workers laid off from financial services and retailing positions tend to get forced into lower-paying service jobs. But with consumers being squeezed by increasing gas and food prices, they’re not driving and patronising bars and restaurants as often, so it is somewhat doubtful that all of those laid-off employees will be able to find other work soon.

Reference article but complete text above

No Heller today. Crap…..

The decision should be out soon, right? Let's keep our fingers crossed. The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.

hmm, it's been very quiet and peaceful here without me, I see...

By a coincidence I was just looking at the Mercedes-Benz diesel-electric hybrid setup for the Sprinter platform the other day, and there were a few slides of PHEV analysis by Drs in the field...

Main problems hampering efficiency in the Prius are the sheer weight of the heavy battery and electric motor combination. That's why some diesels are just as economical. And the reason for the weight is that current battery technology still can't deliver power without size. The best performer for the application is a lithium-ion battery, but it is also currently v. expensive to produce -- and hence the fuel savings can be outweighed by the initial cost of the battery over the lifetime of the battery and/or vehicle. However, with time, mass-production will bring the price per unit down.

You can charge a lithium-ion battery some 3,000(?) times, I believe, far many more than a lead-acid battery, and it potentially will last up to the effective lifetime of the vehicle.

http://www.whnet.com/4x4/hybrid.html

oh, and that was Jeremy Clarkson from 'Top Gear', a lad's show about cars. Clarkson is about as redneck as a Brit can get ; )

STCM:
I’m more likely to buy an electric bicycle, or conversion kit. I commute by bicycle a bit today, about half of the time when the weather’s nice enough. If I had electric assist I’d probably bike to more places, and in somewhat warmer weather (I’m in Phoenix).

try my favourite: http://www.aerorider.com - it's costly, but the guy is seeking VC to try to build more cheaply say in US... anyone able to help?

Looks like my models are gathering steam.

DOW at 11,600
Fed rae increases being facored in as 33% chance next meeting, 96% probable meeting after that.
Write-offs at 400b but expected to go higher
Case=Shiller showing retrace ending early 2010 back to Mid October 2000 levels.