patrick.net

Not entirely sure about that.

The 9/11 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia . . .

Popularist revolts put Israel in a more precarious geostrategic position I think.

But I am not read at all on this area so this opinionating is just talking through my hat.

Egypt's got a tough row to hoe . . . 80 million people, $5000/yr per-capita GDP, and just a solid wall of young people hitting the workforce for the next 30 years:

Hard to tell what populist revolts in the Arab world will bring. More Irans or more Turkeys?

Or perhaps...a mix?

I'm not knowledgeable enough about the Muslim world to really make a good guess. A huge move towards democracy/free markets (Bush's old wet dream) would certainly be positive for the future. At the very least, we could start to truly tone down our own military industrial complex since there's no more 'enemies' to get all stiff about.

But a bunch of Irans...especially with the oil producing countries could shoot oil to $200/barrel, scare the living shit out of israel, and perhaps start to justify all the military hawk spending.

I see the potential downside (more Irans) as a bigger downer than any positives by a growing democratic movement....even in a 'best case' type of scenario, we probably wouldn't reduce our military anyways...so how many positives does it really bring the US (a very selfish stance I know...but it just seems the negatives affect us more than the positives).

I just don't have enough faith in most of the people in these Muslim countries to choose Western ideals over Shariah law...but hopefully I'll be proven wrong.

The house of Saud will fall. Something like 50% of the population is under 25. They all expect to live the same all expense paid life as their parents. The problem is at some point the decline in oil production will cross over the increase in population.

I can't help but think about what was the result the last time we wished for a nasty middle eastern dictator to be removed from power.

This time it is a populist uprising, which is much different from us attacking from the outside.

But I am concerned what may come next. Mubarak has just announced his new vice president: Egypt's current spy chief. It has a very ominous ring to it.

How fractionalized or fractured is Egypt? They have Muslims, they have Kopters (Christians), they even have a Jewish minority. I'm very concerned what may happen.

I wish there were a simple plan for removing Mubarak, and that free elections would produce a peaceful government that respects all subgroups. I hope we do not get another Iraq as a result.

If there is ANYTHING Iraq has taught the world, it is that the domestic political situation of some Arab nations is anything but simple.

Another fundamentalist government is a very high probability, although not another Iran since Egypt is Sunni not Shia. Like almost all revolutionary uprisings it all depends on the army. If they side with the people then the revolution will succeed.

Egypt is 90% muslim. The non muslim population is almost all Coptic, I doubt very much there are more than 1000 jews in Egypt. The current administration is very heavily identified with the US. That makes it easy for fundamentalists to recruit support among the poor by demonizing the US as the oppressor and the current administration as a puppet of the US.

Why the US continues time and time again to prop up corrupt tyrants who are very unpopular remains one of the great mysteries of all time. It blows up every time.

This could spread across most of the middle east. Want some great raw coverage check out the English langauge al jazeera websight. http://english.aljazeera.net/

The one thing that these protestors all have in common is that the people doing the protesting clearly want more freedom of expression. That bodes well for whatever type of government replaces what they currently have, so I'm optimistic.