patrick.net

klarek says

Agreed. My area (nova) outperformed inflation. I don’t use inflation to estimate the worth of houses, I use household income data for the areas I’m looking at. But I add one massive caveat to that which is that income levels in the DC region were largely a result of massive govt spending, something that might unwind over the years in proportion to its outperforming the national market over the past decade. I don’t adjust how I see the value of houses based on it, but it gives me a lot of reason to doubt that prices will rise, or that the trend will continue.

This quite is true I think and, is interesting point.

I am kind thinking about... what if we had government shutdown and it will last for 2 months?
As you know, 13% of fairfax resident, 10% of DC resident are fed workers, 10% of DC resident is DC government workers (which will also be closed if fed gov closed), and about another 10% of all people arround here are contaractors that depends on either fed or DC government. Let say 2/3 of those people can't work due to the shutdown, suppose many of them can't make their payment on time, and local business lose them for few weeks... well... things could've been quite interesting. Will we still can outperform inflation after that?

Another thing is, even if we were able to avoid the shutdown, federal government is not hiring. They don't hire another people when one left the office unless the position is absolutely necessary. And the enormous pressure from the congress the government is facing with now, they may have to cut some government positions in the future. That could affect people's life in DC metro in the future.

seaside says

I am kind thinking about… what if we had government shutdown and it will last for 2 months?

I was thinking more in terms of downsized departments and a lot of terminated contracts/programs. Nobody really thinks they would shut down the govt for that long. Unemployment would reach epic levels.

My less than asking offer was just accepted for my 2nd rental this year in South Puget sound. 3bd2bath 2365 sq ft, built in 2006 for 200k even(bank pays 2% closing costs). Asking was 205k. There were multiple offers supposedly and I was given an offer to give my "best and final" offer. I didn't budge and they still picked me, go figure. Am I proud of my investment. No. It's not an investment, it's my hedge against inflation and will be yet another incomes stream when I retire.

burritos says

Asking was 205k. There were multiple offers supposedly and I was given an offer to give my “best and final” offer. I didn’t budge and they still picked me, go figure.

I was asked to give a highest and best TWICE :(
But I gave in because our offer price was low.

A listing agent for an REO property once told me that the banks will counter you no matter what you offer. If they don't counter you, it's because you made a ridiculously high offer.

burritos says

My less than asking offer was just accepted for my 2nd rental this year in South Puget sound. 3bd2bath 2365 sq ft, built in 2006 for 200k even(bank pays 2% closing costs). Asking was 205k. There were multiple offers supposedly and I was given an offer to give my “best and final” offer. I didn’t budge and they still picked me, go figure. Am I proud of my investment. No. It’s not an investment, it’s my hedge against inflation and will be yet another incomes stream when I retire.

Do you have someone local to manage it?

vain says

burritos says

Asking was 205k. There were multiple offers supposedly and I was given an offer to give my “best and final” offer. I didn’t budge and they still picked me, go figure.

I was asked to give a highest and best TWICE

But I gave in because our offer price was low.
A listing agent for an REO property once told me that the banks will counter you no matter what you offer. If they don’t counter you, it’s because you made a ridiculously high offer.

Those were my thoughts exactly. Of course now I wish I had made a lower offer. However, I was originally going to make a full offer price, but my realtor suggested I offered lower with closing costs. I'm pretty certain I can get it rented out for 1650 maybe 1700 per month. My PITI is going to be around 1200. I've been following this market closely and houses of this size that were ready to move in were selling closer to 215-220. So a few thousand dollars here and there wasn't that big of a concern for me Honestly, both my realtor and I were shocked when we were told our offer had been accepted.

ch_tah says

burritos says

My less than asking offer was just accepted for my 2nd rental this year in South Puget sound. 3bd2bath 2365 sq ft, built in 2006 for 200k even(bank pays 2% closing costs). Asking was 205k. There were multiple offers supposedly and I was given an offer to give my “best and final” offer. I didn’t budge and they still picked me, go figure. Am I proud of my investment. No. It’s not an investment, it’s my hedge against inflation and will be yet another incomes stream when I retire.

Do you have someone local to manage it?

I have a property manager who is already managing 3 of my properties. Her cut is 10%. When I get to 4 properties she decreases her mgmt rate to 8%. If I can get to 10 properties(it'll be a while if ever) that rate goes down to 5%.

Very nice, burritos.

ch_tah says

Very nice, burritos.

Thanks.

burritos says

So a few thousand dollars here and there wasn’t that big of a concern for me Honestly, both my realtor and I were shocked when we were told our offer had been accepted.

burritos says

There were multiple offers supposedly and I was given an offer to give my “best and final” offer. I didn’t budge and they still picked me, go figure.

Kudos on standing ground on your price and congrads on winning. And as you quickly learned this whole notion of multiple best and final offers crap, and all the hype behind it must be taken with lots of salt. And I mean lots of salt. Fake offers will be the last leg of this bubble to fall.

And still today, this problem isnt being addressed by regulators.

American in Japan says

Is anyone buying this month or in May?

AIJ,

Won't that be a huge mistake? unless it is Las Vegas. :)

Tell that to whoever is buying in the overpriced areas...

American in Japan says

Tell that to whoever is buying in the overpriced areas…

Yeah, BA for sure.

I would never buy an expensive house right now but reality is some people have few other options in the bay area I have some insight because I interview a lot of tenants many of them in high tech starting families there are very few rental properties in areas where youd want to raise a family

Interest rates are low house prices are down so people buy because they can afford the payments

I have a contract down on a 2br 1 bathroom Chicago condo for $138k. The original asking price was $165k. I rent a tiny studio right now and wanted more space. If I need the extra income I figure I can rent the 2nd bedroom.

robertoaribas says

1. Are condos a worse investment than homes. Perhaps. I didn’t buy any of these for appreciation however. The average price for the 3 of them I purchased, with rehab and appliances is $40K. I am renting one for $750, one for $825, the third I anticipate $795. They are all close in, near the light rail and near centers of employment, i am much more concerned about future rent trends then future price trends. Factoring in a month of vacancy and $1000 for maintenance, i am making 12 to 14% on each of these, without loans.

Smart boy.

@toothfairy

Sorry about my ignorance here...
About starting a family, are they more concerned with schools, safety or other? (even if the children are under 6).

seems like folks want safety and cleanliness newness and updates not found in typical rental

So is summer *really* the worst time to buy a house in terms of seasonal effects on the price?

American in Japan says

So is summer *really* the worst time to buy a house in terms of seasonal effects on the price?

Depends on the area, but history shows that fall is the best time as people who tried to sell all summer get desperate. Winter is good too but normally the best houses have already been snatched up by then. The best day historically would be Christmas Day where your offer would likely be the only one.

Summer can still be good, you normally have lots of houses entering the market and the houses that have already been on the market will sometimes lower their prices to compete with the new wave of houses. But yes, the beginning of summer is usually the worst time to buy a house.

Is anyone buying a place in May or June??

We are planning on closing in June. Well see if it goes through or not.

American in Japan says

Is anyone buying a place in May or June??

Maybe.

After selling our Santa Barbara house in 2005 and renting since, we bought a house in the East Bay late last year...a fixer-upper on a great street in one of the best school districts. Subsequently, we sunk over 100k in the remodel (which came out great!) But lo and behold, after many years at the same employer, I was laid off (insert "ouch" here) and we decided to relocate for another job opportunity. Surprising to me, we had several offers after just a brokers tour and the offer we accepted was from a very qualified buyer that paid asking price, giving us all of our investment back as well as an $80k profit after all costs (including moving) are weighed in. I am pleasantly surprised about the resiliency of some local markets, have a great appreciation for good school districts, and am once again going to be a happy renter!

Ducky,
I see that the house(s) on Victory Lane near the park have been scooped up. But hope springs eternal below $200k. How about the short sale at 1111 Carey? Let us know if you are thwarted by the RE Cartel.

You can add me to the 'bought in 2011' list. I just closed escrow today.

$440k for a place that rents for $2500/month. Year 2000 price.

vain says

You can add me to the ‘bought in 2011′ list. I just closed escrow today.

$440k for a place that rents for $2500/month. Year 2000 price.

Ok so the tenant is you paying around $2200 a month then. I've never heard of a 2/1 in daly shity renting for that much. I had good friends who rented for $1400 in 2001 -2006, for a skinny 1/1 with the bay windows and the garage downstairs. bart was right there across the main street. Love SF!

Katy Perry says

vain says

You can add me to the ‘bought in 2011′ list. I just closed escrow today.
$440k for a place that rents for $2500/month. Year 2000 price.

Ok so the tenant is you paying around $2200 a month then. I’ve never heard of a 2/1 in daly shity renting for that much. I had good friends who rented for $1400 in 2001 -2006, for a skinny 1/1 with the bay windows and the garage downstairs. bart was right there across the main street. Love SF!

It's a 3BR/2BA. Purchased with cash. I'll take a $200k loan against it soon, have a payment of $1050ish, and rent out the downstairs for $1200. I will live upstairs for free. Cash flow $_$.

If prices fall, cool, we'll be in position to buy another with cash. If prices rise, I can't complain there.

vain says

It’s a 3BR/2BA. Purchased with cash. I’ll take a $200k loan against it soon

why would you take out a loan against the house that you just paid for in cash? if you buy another house with that loan how is that buying in cash if it's borrowed money?

I wish I had parents who gave me money also.

Vain are you a realtor/broker?

Katy Perry says

vain says

It’s a 3BR/2BA. Purchased with cash. I’ll take a $200k loan against it soon

why would you take out a loan against the house that you just paid for in cash? if you buy another house with that loan how is that buying in cash if it’s borrowed money?
I wish I had parents who gave me money also.
Vain are you a realtor/broker?

Bought it in cash because the home didn't qualify for a loan due to a missing water heater. Nobody is giving me any money. The loan against the house would be to repay members of the family. I probably dodged a few thousand dollars of extra fees for not using a loan to purchase. You're probably going to mention income soon too. I can be unemployed after I get the loan and will still be fine since I'd just resort to living in the bottom unit and rent out the top unit for $2k.

We use a broker in our immediate family.

Summer is almost here...but traditionally not the best time to buy...
This year...

American in Japan says

Summer is almost here…but traditionally not the best time to buy…
This year…

I agree. Prices have inched up on the MLS. And folks that got foreclosed on previously can actually buy again.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/05/31/MNIL1JKERQ.DTL&tsp=1

vain says

I agree. Prices have inched up on the MLS. And folks that got foreclosed on previously can actually buy again.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/05/31/MNIL1JKERQ.DTL&tsp=1

Debt slaves will always find ways to go into debt. This article certainly encourages living in credit.

after horrible new england winter went down to florida to check out the market. Total impulse purchase and closing soon. Will use it as a vacation/winter home for the next few years.

Bought a 4/3 townhouse 1/2 mile from the beach with rooftop deck that has panoramic view of the ocean. Place is 10 years old and in good shape. Can still walk my kids to school (1 block). Paid $799,000 and mortgage is $3,382; $/sq foot is $379. Neighboring properties sold for $880K (two and not as nice) and one across the street is going for $1.1M. I was paying $3800 in rent so after tax deduction, insurance, and maintenance (I itemize a lot as a small business owner), Im about $300 less/month. This isnt including the money I collect off investments I didnt put down on the house (about $400) and money towards principal ($800/month). Typical rent for this place would be $3800-$4000.

I am in South Fl.Had the contract done with owner today.
Will go mortgage shopping starting Monday and closing in September.
This is a 2X 2 condo.May be it might still go down..but I liked the unit..its in the same wing where I rent now but on diff floor.corner unit.
Paying around the market price,HOA is the biggest expense @320 pm
Price is 62.5K for 1100 sft condo that is 32 year old

If prices aren't going up much in the summer, what are they going to do from September?

American in Japan says

If prices aren't going up much in the summer, what are they going to do from September?

If you are referring "they" to government then they are going to come up with more money to give away struggling irresponsible people. :)

I bought last year, I put in the offer in July when values were at certain level, the Real estate cheer leaders were calling the tax credit a success. The Offer went in on July 15, to close on Sept 1, by the time the bank appraised the place, the news did a 180 and the RE was gloom and doom again. By the time I was appraised it came in 10K under the asking price, which is what I got it for.
Had they appraised a week or even a few days earlier, the Appraisal would have came in 20K over and the bank would have been trying to get me to take out more money to cover move in repairs and getting the house in order.

When I bought, there were less than 25 houses that had sold in 2 to 3 years in my part of town. There's been well over a hundred since then.

I think houses moved this year, but I think it's because the prices have been coming down. If that changes, the sales will stop.

I am buying property and building a house in Plano TX. It is about 15 miles north of Dallas. I have been reading this group for years. I waited a few years to join, and rarely comment. I am interested in real estate, but not really for investment reasons. I own a 3,000 square foot house and will sell it to build the new one. I am getting a one time close loan that will be interest only until the build is done. Then, Once I occupy - I will lock in the rate (will not be more than 1% over today's rate) and will get a 10 year fixed that will turn into an ARM for the last 20 years. I do not want an ARM, but have had difficulty getting a loan for the last 2 years. I was in no rush, and have waited until everything meets my criteria. There is some risk, but being a contrarion in a bad market can be good in some cases.

I plan to try to flip to a 30 year fixed once construction is done. This will be easy unless interest rates sky rocket in the next 8 months. I think interest rates are going up, but no need to argue with me. All the graphs and charts give me a headache. I could be wrong, but I am willing to take that risk. Now that I could not lock to a fixed 30 year, I will be just fine if rates hold until the construction finishes.

The place is called Normandy estates in Plano. It is a nice neighborhood and was completed at the worst possible time. Nobody could get financing, so it currently sits at about 4% occupancy. But, the West side of Plano is built out, and this is prime location. It will be built out at some point, but it could be several more years. This is not a big deasl to me as the total neighborhood is relatively small with stable stuff all around.

Dallas - there were problems here, but nothing like other areas. Lots of foreclosures, but mostly because people got loans they could not afford. Dallas has everything people need, except there is no real NATURAL attractions and it is hot. Those are big deals, but it has kept housing reasonable. New housing can keep going north for a long time.

I am excited. I am not smart enough to debate some of the arguments on here, but I have never understood how everybody can seemingly ignore a major element of the statistical method. The USA has always been growing / prospering in general. Down periods, but huge upward trend. Predictions are great, but look outside of the last 200 years and you will find that once powers start to decline, the old graphs are no longer relevant. This is true with business, countries, sports teams, etc. The decisions made on a start up are vastly different than those made for a mature company. No graph / chart fills all possibilities.