patrick.net

Now, I invite you or anyone else to look at the two graphs side by side, and tell me when this bubble started:

real estate prices will bottom when those prices reflect a realistic expectation that the loan will be repaid....as long as the gov and the federal reserve are propping up the markets, prices will continue to decline and can not bottom. tax payers bailing out bad loans is not a viable business model.........

the gov is actually propping up the market. i didnt say it was maintaining a certain level. if we didnt have ZIRP and massive freebies to the banks (ala POMO's) the market would be at ZERO.....!.... there would be no real estate market because the financial system would be locked up!

in this case 'propping' means stopping the free fall.....!

709hannah says

the gov is actually propping up the market. i didnt say it was maintaining a certain level. if we didnt have ZIRP and massive freebies to the banks (ala POMO’s) the market would be at ZERO…..!…. there would be no real estate market because the financial system would be locked up!
in this case ‘propping’ means stopping the free fall…..!

Well, I would still argue that, even in that case, both, the all-cash and the "priced-out-of-the-market-back-in-the-bubble-heydays" crowds would still come in for a "Bull Trap" experiment. You see, the purpose of the bubble is to suck in as many suckers as possible, both, on its way up, and on its way down. If the market went straight to 0 from the top, nobody would be suckered in on the way down, and it wouldn't be so much fun, now would it?

by bull trap do you mean in the RE industry...i.e. R.E. buyers coming in and buying thinking it is a bottom...?

i agree....i know at leat 10 people that have just bought a home.....some are already underwater numerically. 2 couples had to sell the new house and move (for job related reasons) and one lost a but load of money and the other still hasnt found a buyer and their listing price is less than their mortgage...sucks!

the old 'i dont care about price' and ' R.E. wil not go down in my area' really trashed these people....but when the wife says she wants a house..well...you buy.

Troy says

ChrisLA says

Government is actively restricting everyone from buying by artificially keeping the prices above what people can afford.

I disagree with this. Affordability is orthogonal to what the government does and does not do.
At the end of the day what it comes down to is “how-much-a-month”, plus the impetus of inflation creating a speculative premium that people are willing to pay. When Government intervenes to reduce the monthly expense for a given pricepoint, pricepoints just rise to compensate.
Houses will always be on the edge of affordable, since they are sold on the bid.

I think that is the problem, to an average person who does not consider long term it only comes down to "how much a month". Thats how cars are sold to the poor, houses follow. Not a very prudent way of shopping.

So as soon as government provides 30 year loans prices go up to match 30 year mark. If max loan length was 3 years prices would drop accordingly.

At least that's how I see it.

Mr.Fantastic says

No seriously, tatupu literally decided to take off. He sent me a long e-mail about how he hated me, and would have “people come after me” if he found out who I was.

Now that's funny.

Here is the chart. The fact remains that our own S&P has actually underperformed the Nikkei so far, in this dead-cat market rally:

LOL, Patrick, funny spam.
Russian hackers ad here.
Have they registered or just hacked in?

No no no, according to Shiller the bottom is now. LMAO

Get ready for decades of decline. We are following the path of Japan except we don't have the savings and strong industrial exports to do as "well" as they have.

LiarWatch says

pazuzu says

No no no, according to Shiller the bottom is now. LMAO

Get ready for decades of decline. We are following the path of Japan except we don't have the savings and strong industrial exports to do as "well" as they have.

They called bottom in

2007... prices fell.

2008... prices fell.

2009.... prices fell.

2010..... prices fell.

2011... prices fell.

2012... prices continue to fall.

Anyone telling you any different is a liar.

Hi Darrell,

Which idiot called 2007 the bottom? You can run, but you can't hide Darrell. Are you still renting from Roberto, or did he evict you? :)

LiarWatch says

Hiding? Running?I'm not a realtor here. That would be you..... hiding, running and screwing the public.

Darrell,

Actually, that was your ex-girlfriend. Not only did she screw the public, but she screwed you pretty bad before dumping you. Is that why you're so bitter?

Why are all the specuvestors on this site so vile? If it was such a gravy train, they'd be silently smirking in the corner counting all their free money. Instead, they spend time here, patting themselves on the back, trying to put down others, pimping for the NAR, and (at least in my observations) whoring for the democrats. Id ask how you people sleep at night, but its obvious, not very well

So sad. The worst will be these clowns will be crying foul when the market crumbles and they are crushed by their own leverage. It will be the evil GOPs fault and they will be demanding that the smart democrats throw the banks another trillion dollar bone to try and make them whole. Sucks for those of us that are forced to pay for this crap