patrick.net

It's hard to say. If they can get that Model S out for $50K, and with a California credit of 4K, this could be pretty competitive to the audience they are targeting, which would be BMW/Mercedes/Infinity. I know what kind of mileage I get on my Mercedes! And with standard driving, you could look at probably saving 3K per year in gas. Put 3 years of savings in there, and now you're competing with some decent cars, with a decent price point!

Their technology is completely different, and I hope they don't sell too much of it. If they do, Ford and others will simply sit on it after Tesla is run down to a simple R&D company. They have some good technology in charging and draining their batteries, which is what an electric car is all about.

Last I heard Toyota was licensing some of their tech. It's not a given that the big auto companies can just roll right over a company like this, in point of fact their in-house research can be quite lacking. Easier to acquire it as needed. Risky but this has potential IMO.

As Warren Buffet said about car companies when they first came out. Deciding who was going to win was almost impossible. Deciding who was going to lose was easy - horse carriage companies.

Today we've had every car company go bankrupt essentially in the US. Of the 100+ companies that started up in the US the only ones that survived where GM/Ford/Chrysler.

Pretty bad odds for Tesla...

Saw a Telsa parked at Fry's in Palo Alto a few weeks ago. Boy that is a small car. No way I would ever fit into it.

this has potential, just I don't see it yet. I'm not sure if they can compete with Ford and Toyota/Honda for the hybrid/electric car business. Can they get their price low enough? Or is this going to be a luxury priced item?

Of course I don't know their business enough, so naturally curious about what others think about investing into them long term. So far I'm thinking of toyota (TM) is a better choice because of how well they've done historically.

Anyone has any concrete thoughts or opinions on this?

Tesla will either go out of business or be acquired by a larger auto company. Their chances of being a strong independent automobile company seem slim

I'm betting on TSLA being acquired by TM in the long term. Once TM start producing cars with significant components based on a partnership they'll want to OWN it. Until then they'll be perfectly happy to leave it as a partnership.

Vicente says

I’m betting on TSLA being acquired by TM in the long term. Once TM start producing cars with significant components based on a partnership they’ll want to OWN it. Until then they’ll be perfectly happy to leave it as a partnership.

Vincente do you think it's a good investment? Or would it be better to simply go straight with TM?

I own TM for some while now, not a huge amount but I add to it every time it takes a hit and gets knocked into the basement. I have stocks like that in my individual account where I fuss over tax consequences and have slow turnover.

TSLA is terrible investment risk IMO. Led by an egomaniac who might make some colossal blunder or simply get ill and cripple the whole thing. Cautions aside, I picked up 200 shares in my Roth account which I allocate a certain portion of to just plain gambling.

I think the matter of what is a "good investment" is a highly personal matter, for some it's just whatever they are certain is a "sure thing" to turn over 100% in the next 6 months. For others it's Blue Chips and maybe a little dividend. For me there's a certain amount of just "gut feel" which is what I'm going with here. I'll never completely overlook that I work in technology, love technology, and think maybe I can smell the Next Big Thing. A hangover from the 90's. This has served me well with some stocks like AAPL but then there's TIVO which spent years trading in a small range.

Forgot to link in the Toyota thing I found. The Rav4 EV is using Tesla powertrain:

http://www.toyota.com/esq/topics/2010/rav4_ev_demonstration_program.html

Thanks Vincente.

My wife and I have been investing into individual stocks for years too, mainly just see if a company looks like they will make a good enough product that will be popular (all long term). Most have worked out well so far, but none are in auto industry. We have GOOG, AAPL, Microsoft (forgot their symbol) all have done well over the years.... although Microsoft has been stagnating.

Trying to diversify into few more sectors.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
244.20-12.80 (-4.98%)
As of 10:18AM EST. Market open.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-shares-slide-more-than-3-as-goldman-downgrades-stock-to-sell-2017-02-27/
Tesla shares slide more than 4% as Goldman downgrades stock to sell

Goldman is expecting the launch of the Model 3 to be delayed and expects Tesla shares to be pressured through the year by an accelerating free cash flow burn rate. The company is expected to raise capital again before the fourth quarter, after Chief Executive Elon Musk acknowledged that need on the company’s latest quarterly earnings call.

“We see room for shares to de-rate as the Model 3 production launch likely disappoints and as an unproven SolarCity business model likely weighs on the company’s focus/results,” said Tamberrino.

The acquisition of SolarCity has come at a time when Goldman believes Tesla should be firmly focused on becoming a mass car manufacturer. The deal has limited synergies and it is in the midst of a business model transition from company-owned equipment installation and leasing contracts to customer purchased equipment on cash and loan sales.

“Ultimately, the acquisition raised the net leverage of Tesla while creating EBITDA and FCF drag that requires incremental non-recourse debt to be raised,” said the note.

Tesla shares have gained 42% since December 2, versus the S&P 500’s SPX, -0.14% 8% gain and a 9% gain for the overall auto market, driven by positive news flow, including tax reform proposals and a gigafactory investor tour that impressed analysts.

jvolstad says

Saw a Telsa parked at Fry's in Palo Alto a few weeks ago. Boy that is a small car. No way I would ever fit into it.

None of the Tesla's (on the road) are small.

As for the company, it strikes me as being massively overvalued.

Rashomon says

None of the Tesla's (on the road) are small.

Tesla Roadsters are still running around. And they are small.

Rashomon says

As for the company, it strikes me as being massively overvalued.

I don't see TSLA stock as an investment, it's gambling. Either earnings have to catch up to it's valuation, or the stock price has to adjust lower to match earnings. While I have no idea how long that might take to happen, or which way it would go, it would seem that stock correction is more likely.

Straw Man says

Tesla Roadsters are still running around. And they are small.

True... but they are few and far between (and no longer produced). The S and X are substantial vehicles.

I think I've only seen a Tesla in person once. For comparison purposes, I see Chevy Volt's all the time.

Rashomon says

Straw Man says

Tesla Roadsters are still running around. And they are small.

True... but they are few and far between (and no longer produced). The S and X are substantial vehicles.

We don't have any proof that whatever jvolstad saw wasn't a T-Roadster.

zzyzzx says

I think I've only seen a Tesla in person once. For comparison purposes, I see Chevy Volt's all the time.

There are hordes of them in SFBA. Volts too.

Straw Man says

There are hordes of them in SFBA. Volts too.

Every place you look.

Volts will eat TSLA. It's just an overpriced dick extension. But what can you do with 16 inch anyways?

mell says

Volts will eat TSLA. It's just an overpriced dick extension. But what can you do with 16 inch anyways?

It's like saying "Corolla will eat BMW". They are aimed at two different market segments. Besides, when (or if) Tesla3 comes out it will be playing on Volt/Bolt field price-wise while offering RWD and more "grown-up"/"upscale" looks.

Straw Man says

Besides, when (or if) Tesla3 comes out it will be playing on Volt/Bolt field price-wise while offering RWD and more "grown-up"/"upscale" looks.

FYI, RWD is not a selling point anyplace where it snows.

zzyzzx says

FYI, RWD is not a selling point anyplace where it snows.

Tesla offers AWD too. Besides, with modern ETC/ESC systems RWD cars are doing no worse than typical FWD car in snow/ice. And by "modern" I mean "something from this century". Before I bought a truck I was perfectly happy with my RWD sedan performance on ski trips.

zzyzzx says

Straw Man says

Besides, when (or if) Tesla3 comes out it will be playing on Volt/Bolt field price-wise while offering RWD and more "grown-up"/"upscale" looks.

FYI, RWD is not a selling point anyplace where it snows.

Tesla offers AWD too. Besides, with modern ETC/ESC systems RWD cars are doing no worse than typical FWD car in snow/ice. And by "modern" I mean "something from this century". Before I bought 4WD truck I was perfectly happy with my RWD sedan snow/ice driving performance on ski trips.

mell says

Volts will eat TSLA. It's just an overpriced dick extension. But what can you do with 16 inch anyways?

True, if you can't put it all the way in, satisfaction is impossible.

I noted that this thread is from 2011, and looked up the graph of TSA:

Wow, wtf happened in 2013?

Ironman says

Real men drive trucks

Real men own and drive whatever the fuck they want.

Straw Man says

Real men own and drive whatever the fuck they want.

Precisely!

Straw Man says

It's like saying "Corolla will eat BMW". They are aimed at two different market segments. Besides, when (or if) Tesla3 comes out it will be playing on Volt/Bolt field price-wise while offering RWD and more "grown-up"/"upscale" looks.

True, but I give the mainstream auto makers the advantage of being 2nd to market, they will likely be cheaper and at least equally efficient, esp. the hybrid models. Also the TSLA is actually quite a net polluter, running on subsidies. It will likely stay but doubt it will capture the mainstream.

rando says

I noted that this thread is from 2011, and looked up the graph of TSA:

Yeah it doesn't mean that it's a bad stock, esp. since the co. got so many subsidies and tax breaks. But the mainstream car makers have been catching up. I don't like AMD financials either but they are soaring ;)

mell says

I don't like AMD financials either but they are soaring ;)

You're right. What the hell is going on there? They have a p/e of -25. Negative 25.

Tesla stock now worth more then Ford and GM (individually, not combined). Can you say irrational exuberance?

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2017/04/11/tesla-is-now-americas-most-valuable-automaker/

Tesla Is Now America’s Most Valuable Automaker

Tesla (TSLA) is now America’s most valuable car company.

Tesla’s gains on Monday put it ahead of General Motors (GM), the last firm standing between it and the title after it surpassed Ford’s (F) market capitalization earlier this month.

As far as world domination, it still has a way to go: Its market cap makes it the sixth-largest automaker globally. Toyota Motor (TM) is still No. 1, but Tesla is within a billion dollars of overtaking No. 5, Honda Motors (HMC).

I was starring at TSLA when it was 193 and thinking, pull the trigger.

Two financial analyst friends convinced me it was overvalued lol.

Kicking myself.

Don't kick yourself. Not being able to predict random irrational exuberance is no fault of your own.

You might as well kick yourself for not having picked the correct lottery numbers.

The definition of investment is a sound forecast of its ability to make profit, in what time frame and how sure you are. All other ways of betting money is speculation. -- Warren Buffet

TSLA is a speculation like all silicon valley ventures. There is nothing wrong with speculating on ventures, but you have to know it is NOT investment.

For some reason, I posted a comment using DryPark's login, i just logged out. Patrick, this is a security risk.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-just-said-apos-141619694.html

Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its price forecast on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares on Tuesday, saying the electric car maker's "long-term viability" was at risk because of the acquisition of SolarCity.

The investment firm now believes the stock will be nearly cut in half over the next 12 months because "positive earnings and cash flow [are] now even more elusive" in light of the combination.

"We believe the SolarCity acquisition introduces material risks to the longer-term viability of TSLA, while the recent capital raise only serves to further dilute potential shareholder value," research analyst John Murphy said in a note to investors. He has an underperform rating on the stock.

Murphy sees Tesla shares falling to $165, a 46 percent drop from where the stock closed Monday at $308.03 a share. Shares were unchanged in premarket trade.

Murphy also said he is cutting his 2017 earnings estimate on the combined entity from a 25 cent loss per share to a $2 loss. Looking to 2018, he lowered estimates from $2.05 a share to $1.65 but set 2019 estimates "optimistically" at $4.55 a share.

In November, SolarCity and Tesla shareholders voted to approve the electric car maker's $2.6 billion acquisition of the solar power company. SolarCity has struggled financially despite revenue growth, while Tesla has continued to burn cash in pioneering the electric vehicle market.

Elon Musk is chairman and CEO of Tesla, and chairman of SolarCity. Tesla did not return an email for comment.

Here are some of Murphy's other concerns about the combined Tesla-SolarCity:

The solar company acquisition should "exacerbate TSLA's serious cash burn problem, at least in the near-term." Similarly, Murphy anticipates "the SolarCity business burning cash through our forecast period."

The combined company likely depends heavily on the automotive business: 84 percent of total revenue and 97 percent of gross profit, he estimates.
The "Model S may be experiencing a typical spike and burnout" and "without an all-new or next-generation Model S, we think TSLA could see Model S volumes fade, even if prices are lowered."

"Shareholders seem to come second" as Tesla pursues its mission of vertical energy integration because the company has raised capital every year since 2008, Murphy said.
Those shareholders may eventually lose confidence in the stock: "While we recognize that TSLA is a growing top-line business, we think it is unlikely that investors would continue to supply the company with incremental low cost capital in perpetuity if investments fail to generate return."

Shark Tank Star Kevin O'Leary on Why Tesla Shares Are Headed for an Epic Crash

The party is over.

Tesla (TSLA) shares are set to crash, according to Shark Tank star Kevin O'Leary, who is also chairman of O'Leary ETF Investments.

"I'd argue there's a 30-40% downside in Tesla's stock," O'Leary said in an interview with TheStreet.

Tesla shares are up 51% since the start of the year, crushing the broad S&P 500's 6.6% gain.

"There are going to be self-driving cars manufactured by many companies," O'Leary said, "Tesla is the first and perhaps the best brand known, but if I were putting money to work today into this space, it probably wouldn't be in Tesla because it doesn't fit any of the criteria that I look at in terms of derisking my portfolio."

O'Leary said investors who believe in Tesla think it's going to be the only winner in the car space, a contention he's skeptical of.

Last month, Apple (AAPL) disclosed that it had received a permit to test self-driving technology on public roads. Apple is the largest holding of O'Leary's U.S. focused ETF, the O'Shares FTSE US Quality Dividend ETF (OUSA) .

O'Leary also doesn't like that Tesla doesn't pay a dividend.

"It's a cult stock," O'Leary said, adding that he does not own the stock. "If I'm looking at the automotive sector, why would I pay this valuation for basically a car company?"

O'Leary said Tesla investors think Tesla is a technology company, instead of a car company.

PE Ratio (TTM) -69.03
EPS (TTM) -4.68
Earnings Date May 3, 2017
Dividend & Yield N/A (N/A)
Ex-Dividend Date N/A
1y Target Est 262.8

It's a lot higher than I ever thought it would get to, it is however negative in earnings by a lot. Reminds me of Sears.

zzyzzx says

Shark Tank Star Kevin O'Leary on Why Tesla Shares Are Headed for an Epic Crash

When? Without timeframe this "prediction" is useless.