« prev   random   next »

0
0

Is this the bottom :-)

By SP follow SP   2008 Oct 12, 11:45pm 14,879 views   193 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


bottom

I wanted to get this in before the Dow crashes again... (it is up 400 points this morning).

I have no reason to believe this is the bottom of this depression.

However, what are you going to look for as signs?

Reversion to trend? Which trend, and how far? Dow was 3800 at the beginning of 1995, and 6800 in Jan '97.

Or "is it different now", and we can't really look to simple numbers like the DJIA and Nasdaq to tell us when a widespread credit-bust may be coming to an end?

(Racist, sexist and other anti-American posts will be taken out back and shot.)

SP

« First    « Previous    Comments 154 - 193 of 193    Last »

154   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 3:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'm getting a sinking feeling that this time next year for the first time in my life there might be a decline in the global population.

155   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 3:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I’m getting a sinking feeling that this time next year for the first time in my life there might be a decline in the global population.

That may help reduce carbon emission.

156   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 3:43am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

There is more than one thing going on. Is the Russian captured ship with the tanks still going on?

This was a seperate Iranian tanker that evidently didn't make the news, or I just missed it. I'm confused but it is crazy nonetheless.

157   DennisN   ignore (1)   2008 Oct 15, 4:13am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Getting back on topic....

....yes this must be the bottom: I have it on the best authority. :)

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/10/15/financial/f090057D89.DTL&tsp=1

The worst is over ... said Leslie Appleton-Young

158   MST   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 5:24am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Malcolm/TOB:

Oh, yeah, the Ukranian troop/tanks/weapons ship is still out there:

http://www.wlos.com/template/inews_wire/wires.international/23588081-www.wlos.com.shtml

As for "Iranian/Chinese": sorry for my shorthand. The whateveritis cargo of MV Iran Deyanat was loaded in Nanjing, the shipping company regularly falsifies its manifests to get around UN sanctions (of the IAEA-Uranium Enrichment type), and China has certainly been selling weapons, missiles and apparently "fissiles" to mid-east tin-pots for decades now. I wasn't claiming this as a joint military exercise, nor that China would have known what was up, but wouldn't China dearly love to see us embroiled in more middle-east horror shows?

Still haven't found a contradiction in these stories... still looking for the Russian confirmation... Still waiting on Armeggeddon...

Oh, yeah... That 900 point rally? Um. Nevermind.

159   MST   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 5:54am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

TOB:

We're talking about two ships here just to clarify for Malcolm: the Ukranian one with the guns, soldiers and tanks, and the Iranian bulk carrier with the Mysterious Cargo.

The second is the one that is killing it's Somali Pirates stangely. Iranian ship, mostly Iranian crew, Loaded in China, seized August 21. Anchored off Eyl (?)

Sorry for the confusion. 2 different ships.

160   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 5:59am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

MST Says:
October 15th, 2008 at 10:21 am
"JustYou:
There is no way the MSM would not have reported something on this if it were true".
uh, yeah, OK. We’ll let that pass.

__________

Thanks for finding a real link at least confirming the story of the cargo and the deaths. That is really disturbing.

161   MST   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 6:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

stangely = strangely

162   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

MST Says:
October 15th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
"TOB:
We’re talking about two ships here just to clarify for Malcolm: the Ukranian one with the guns, soldiers and tanks, and the Iranian bulk carrier with the Mysterious Cargo."

I figured it out eventually but thanks.

163   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:03am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I understand the relationships at hand, before today I wasn't aware of the Iranian ship being seized.

164   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The Original Bankster Says:
October 15th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
"the idea of a Iranian ship being hijacked by somali pirates and getting radiation disease:"

MST provided the link substantiating the general facts.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,430681,00.html

I agree FOX News is biased but I accept that as confirmation of the story.

165   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The Original Bankster Says:
October 15th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
"come on, remember how Fox news was reporting on the Georgian conflict?"

Not sure what this is, she told a different story than they were expecting and they allowed them to tell the story.

166   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Like I say, Fox News can be accused of being biased to the right, while other networks are to the left, but you can't honestly say that Fox News link is in the same realm as the dozens of conspiracy sites. It is a legitimate news network.

167   MST   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 6:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Well, TOB, even the Iranians agree the ship was hijacked:
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=179673

168   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

And yes, Putin makes me nervous as well. The last thing we need right now is for Russia to go back to its old ways.

169   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:28am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

‘Russia attacked Georgia’

I honestly don't know but the other related videos were titled things like "Fox cuts off girl telling the truth" and that stuff. I thought that was the point. I didn't see it that way.

Rather than debate it, why don't you tell us why Georgia attacked Russia? I wasn't aware that was in dispute. Be quick before the OT police start whining.

170   MST   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 6:31am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

And that other link:
http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953
Is the Times of South Africa, which confirms most of the broad outlines of the story. Please note the date: Sep. 28.

Not a Murdoch paper, AFAIK. ;-)

You can sample here, too:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/09/mystery_surrounds_hi.php

171   KurtS   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 6:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

As read on the link above on Iceland.
"Iceland was one of the richest countries in the world. A pale reflection of the golden age in Icelandic economy which is now going up in flames. Where’s the smoke?...The world is treating us like we’re dead. Bank accounts frozen. No business without cash payments in advance."

I talk to friends in Iceland frequently, and during the high point most admitted to an unreal amount of economic activity, although the bubble were chalked up to the inherent "success" of their economy. Of course, massively excessive leverage was pushing the facade of their economy along. Assumptions drove more assumptions, until fundamentals are completely forgotten--sound familiar? Judging from that article, it doesn't sound like many people are owning up to the causes--familiar again.

172   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 6:36am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

And yes, Putin makes me nervous as well. The last thing we need right now is for Russia to go back to its old ways.

Russia is now rich, with mega-yachts to protect. I doubt they will go back to their old ways.

But they play games well. Back in the days when humans could beat computers in chess, the best players were Russians. :)

173   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:39am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I would think they were doing pretty well. I can't wait for Bush to go and maybe we can get back on track to some sort of productive relationship with Russia. Bush sure has a way of pissing other countries off. I saw him lecturing Putin one time on democracy. Oh boy, I thought, that was pretty stupid.

174   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

That I do know.

175   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:49am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

That's just the way of life over there. Just like in all the latin countries, organized crime runs things the same way.

176   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 6:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I played volleyball with a guy who was Russian but looked Japanese. Another player asked me on the side how that could be. I rolled my eyes and said, "figure it out."

177   MST   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 6:52am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

K.

Jim Geraghty had the story running on NRO and he's finally got some feedback (It took this long!)

UPDATED: Two readers with backgrounds in national security and naval affairs tell me not to worry and that the story is bogus. If they're not worried, I'm not worried.

TOB's nose vindicated. Provided you believe those national security types.

178   Malcolm   ignore (2)   2008 Oct 15, 7:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

"TOB’s nose vindicated. Provided you believe those national security types."

Time will tell, but I respect his original points of view.

179   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 8:25am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Bernanke says bubbles should be tackled:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_EGuB7kQmyo&refer=home

Why now?

Perhaps they want to suppress the coming commodity bubble?

180   OO   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 9:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Looks like the US is making it more difficult for both citizens and PRs to give up their status.

"Congress has passed a law that will tax the assets of those who leave for good on their way out the door, as if they were selling those assets. But tax experts say the more significant change may be a provision that taxes U.S. heirs on amounts given or left to them by ex-U.S. citizens. Taxing the recipient instead of the donor will make it harder to get around the tax rules.

"The new rules say, if you leave any of your property to a U.S. person, it will be taxed at the rates for U.S. gift tax," which are currently 45%, says Henry Alden, a certified public accountant at Everest International Group, a Baltimore-based financial-planning firm. * * *

U.S. citizens and long-term residents who are terminating their status will be taxed once on their unrealized gains, at current market rates. Stock portfolios, real estate, art and most other types of assets will be captured by this new "mark to market" tax. Some experts say the new law could deter some citizens or residents from leaving the U.S., since the benefits of doing so will be reduced. Yet the simplicity of the new one-time tax may appeal to others."

Gotta make sure the little ones are not US citizens, I believe that a natural born US citizen has the right to give it up when he reaches 18.

181   OO   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 9:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Our founding fathers must be turning in graves knowing that the new country they founded turned exactly into a tyranny that they were trying to escape.

182   justme   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 9:59am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The bad news, is that the stock market is going to hell in a handbasket. The good news is, if this doesnnot cause the fortress to crack, nothing will (no prediction on the timeline, though).

183   justme   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 11:34am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'm waiting for Joe The Plumber to show up amongst us. Anyone :-) ?

184   justme   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 11:36am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Who's going to be Joe The Plumber on SNL this week? My bet is on Will Forte.

185   thenuttyneutron   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 11:52am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Ohio is full of stupid people. I was imported to the state to fill a job position that could not find qualified locals to fill. Out of a total of eleven openings, all had to be filled with people from out of the state.

The smart people of the state got out long ago when they could.

186   thenuttyneutron   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 11:54am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Asia is falling apart again.

188   thenuttyneutron   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 12:20pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I take back the all part. There was a guy from South Ohio.

190   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 15, 4:01pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

The smart people of the state got out long ago when they could.

Randy is one fine example.

191   janni   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 16, 5:10am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Just a quick note to say thanks for using my 'fat bottom' picture although you might have asked me first. Let me know if anyone would like a print. Oh and I think the seat could well buckle under this greed ridden bloated artificial economy. http://jane.classycoolmusic.com/art2.htm

192   SP   ignore (0)   2008 Oct 16, 4:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Janni please accept my apologies for linking to the image without permission - I just happened to find it on google-images. You have a very good portfolio, specially liked your photograph of the priory.

193   BeachRealty   ignore (0)   2008 Dec 13, 10:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I think you need to go back to the mid 80s Dow closer to 2000-3000,
in 1985 dollars.
The much touted great bull market was just that, BULL. built on cheap, over used credit and over leveraging assets everywhere.

By the government printing money to bail out everyone we will eventually devalue the assets we are trying to maintain, though inflation.

« First    « Previous    Comments 154 - 193 of 193    Last »

Please write p@patrick.net if you would like to register to comment

about   best comments   contact   one year ago   suggestions