0
0

March Job Report


               
2011 Apr 1, 2:37am   2,384 views  6 comments

by SFace   follow (7)  

http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/01/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment_march/index.htm

looks like US is headed for 2-2.5M jobs added in 2011. Recession is clearly over, housing price will bottom sometime in 2011, my guess is middle of 2011, when month to month metrics will start to flip.

No need to get personal or insulting, this is my opinion only.

#housing

Comments 1 - 6 of 6        Search these comments

1   terriDeaner   2011 Apr 1, 3:03am  

This looks like good news, but dig a little deeper:

Many Low-Wage Jobs Seen as Failing to Meet Basic Needs
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/01/business/economy/01jobs.html?_r=1&hp

And hourly earning continue to slide. From zerohedge:
Foolish Friday - Futures Fuel More Folly
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/foolish-friday-futures-fuel-more-folly

8:30 Update: Jobs ho! Non-Farm Payroll was up 216,000 in March with Unemployment unchanged at 8.8%. The broader U6 measure of Unemployment is still 15.6% but let's accentuate the positive and that's the fact that the Average Hourly Earnings are DOWN for production and non-supervisor positions by 0.02 to $19.30 an our, saving US employers an additional $6Bn a year from what those bastard workers were trying to squeeze them for in February.

$6Bn is, of course, 150,000 $40,000 jobs so PRESTO - look at the magic trick - sure we will hire more workers for the same total amount of money. This is what is known as the Vietnamization of America, as we drive our local wages ever downward to match the lowest Third-World producer. At $19.30 per hour in the US vs 0.1930 in Vietnam, we have quite a long way to go but don't worry - inflation is taking care of things for us because even flat wages are a tremendous salary cut in an inflationary environment.

Another nice trick is that the average number of hours worked by manufacturing employees ticked down by 0.1 hours to 40.5 - this too is the same as laying off 40,000 factory workers and saves US Manufacturers another $1.2Bn a year. So this is an EXCELLENT jobs report for US Business - not so much so for working Americans but screw those guys - they can't afford to buy gold or NFLX anyway...

And from calculatedriskblog:

And take a look at this graphic from Krugman's blog (this is the employment-population ratio from the BLS versus time):

Don't forget that oil is still on the rise amid escalating mideast conflicts (Brent Crude - 118.050; WTI - 107.310 as of 12:38 EDT from Bloomberg). And that oil price spikes, in recent history, nearly always precede or coincide with recessions. From seekingalpha:

Not trying to be a bear, it's just that there seems to be more to consider than a single, mediocre job report given the actual state of our current 'economic recovery'.

2   terriDeaner   2011 Apr 1, 3:26am  

And further devils-in-the-details...from calculatedriskblog:

Autos: I'll post graphs of the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) around 4 PM ET.
• From MarketWatch: GM’s auto sales rise 9.6% in March
• From MarketWatch: Ford U.S. auto sales in March up 19.2% to 212,777
• From MarketWatch: Chrysler March U.S. sales surge 31% to 121,730

but from zerohedge:

Channel Stuffing At GM Hits Record: 574,000 Cars In Dealer Inventory, Despite No Interest Loans, Highest Car Discounts
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/channel-stuffing-gm-hits-record-574000-cars-dealer-inventory-despite-no-interest-loans-and-h

3   terriDeaner   2011 Apr 1, 3:58pm  

shrekgrinch says

The future goes to those with the right skills at the right time. And at this time, all those folks who pushed mortgages, houses, or nails into walls for said houses are not among those who have the right skills.

I need to follow up on this. I was really surprised by the BLS report on CA jobs and I haven't had the time to dig through the numbers.

4   terriDeaner   2011 Apr 1, 3:59pm  

shrekgrinch says

And why should a geny’er invest in the overly priced education for programming when it can be outsourced at a whim? It is smarter to apprentice themselves to an electrician or a plumber, if you ask me.

This is a good question, and should be a separate post.

5   kimboslice   2011 Apr 2, 4:18am  

The government is spending $140 billion every month that it is not collecting in taxes. Eventually this will have some effect. If you had a wife who went around spending $14,000 with your credit card each month around your small town, the locals may believe that the town's economy was picking up too. The problem is people do not realize that the entire world depended to some degree on the American consumer. His perceived wealth and spending of bubble equity wealth was stimulating the world's economy. Americans spent over $1 trillion of home equity. This is over for the time being. We cannot have a real recovery based on debt spending. We cannot have a real recovery without increased production of energy, products, etc. Twitter is not real innovation of any use. The economy is based to a large part on confidence that you can spend today because tomorrow you will have 1. a job 2. no tax surprises 3. no new regulations to affect 1&2. Today unfortunately there is no confidence in the bunch of soviet style central planners in Washington who want to tell you which kind of car to drive, which lightbulb to use, revoke permits for drilling, sue states for border enforcing, new absurd carbon taxes, "keeping my boot on his neck" and "whose ass to kick".

6   terriDeaner   2011 Apr 2, 5:05am  

kimboslice says

If you had a wife who went around spending $14,000 with your credit card each month around your small town, the locals may believe that the town’s economy was picking up too.

Oh those pesky dames! Always up to mischief.

kimboslice says

Today unfortunately there is no confidence in the bunch of soviet style central planners in Washington who want to tell you which kind of car to drive, which lightbulb to use, revoke permits for drilling, sue states for border enforcing, new absurd carbon taxes, “keeping my boot on his neck” and “whose ass to kick”.

Ok, I got lost in this part of your rant... do you mean to say that:

"Today unfortunately there is no confidence in ... “keeping my boot on his neck” and “whose ass to kick”."

OR

"Today unfortunately there is no confidence in the bunch of soviet style central planners in Washington who want to... “keeping my boot on his neck” and “whose ass to kick”."

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   users   suggestions   gaiste