patrick.net

Back to below 100 on the chart to get back to any normality.

Barry Ritholtz sounding out the numbers:

>>Today, the S&P Case Shiller NSA 20 checked in at 139.27; the previous post-bubble low is 139.26.

Wow. The NSA C-S 20 price is a not-so-whopping factor of 1.00007 above the post-bubble low. Is anyone going to speak up AGAINST the double-dip coming now, or will at least one of them put their quack where their beak is(*)?

(*) Translation: eat their words.

swebb says

If you cut out the bump in the graph from the homebuyer tax credit, it doesn’t look like the current prices are plummeting like before…it doesn’t look inconsistent with the idea of “bouncing along the bottom” from my vantage point.

If there were any bounce preceding the tax credit, this would be a very valid point. As of now, there's no "bounce" that was naturally-occurring.

justme says

Barry Ritholtz sounding out the numbers:
>>Today, the S&P Case Shiller NSA 20 checked in at 139.27; the previous post-bubble low is 139.26.
Wow. The NSA C-S 20 price is a not-so-whopping factor of 1.00007 above the post-bubble low. Is anyone going to speak up AGAINST the double-dip coming now, or will at least one of them put their quack where their beak is(*)?
(*) Translation: eat their words.

Add inflation to 139.26 and we have already busted the so called 2009 bottom.

bubblesitter says

If there were any bounce preceding the tax credit, this would be a very valid point. As of now, there’s no “bounce” that was naturally-occurring.

Why does there have to be a bounce preceding the tax credit? Maybe the "organic" bounce coincided with the distortion caused by the tax credit. It's hard to separate them, especially because the tax credit period was pretty long.

I guess the main observation I have is that the slope of the graph before the tax credit period looks a lot more negative than the slope after the tax credit period. It doesn't appear that house prices resumed their trajectory once the tax credit went away.

this is a running average for Dec, Jan Feb right?

toothfairy says

this is a running average for Dec, Jan Feb right?

Yes.

junkmail says

“House prices falling for 8th month in a row…”

Do you live on a hill?

I don't understand what you mean by "live on a hill". But, house prices falling for 8 months in a row isn't all that meaningful on its own. Magnitude is more important. (they could fall by $1 for 800 months, for example..)

Again, my observation is that the magnitude of the decrease before the tax credit was significantly higher than the apparent magnitude of the decrease after the credit expired. So different that it can't be ignored. Prices just don't appear to be falling at anywhere near the rate they were before the tax credit. I hope they resume their fall, but so far the data doesn't seem to support it.

swebb says

junkmail says

“House prices falling for 8th month in a row…”
Do you live on a hill?

I don’t understand what you mean by “live on a hill”. But, house prices falling for 8 months in a row isn’t all that meaningful on its own. Magnitude is more important. (they could fall by $1 for 800 months, for example..)
Again, my observation is that the magnitude of the decrease before the tax credit was significantly higher than the apparent magnitude of the decrease after the credit expired. So different that it can’t be ignored. Prices just don’t appear to be falling at anywhere near the rate they were before the tax credit. I hope they resume their fall, but so far the data doesn’t seem to support it.

The rate of decline before the fall was based on fear and panic. Since then people have been appeased by government intervention and are less worried. A drop below '09 prices could open up that type of mania again, or not. But just because they may not fall at the same rate again doesn't mean they won't fall. Homes are still unaffordable in many areas, unemployment is still high, and non gov't backed financing is difficult to get. If the gov't pulls out of the mortgage guaranteeing game (as proposed) over the next 5 years prices should continue to fall.

Swebb, you're comparing 8 months versus 3 years. I drive more miles in three years than I do in eight months. Doesn't mean I'm driving less or more per month during those 3 years.

Shawn says

But just because they may not fall at the same rate again doesn’t mean they won’t fall. Homes are still unaffordable in many areas, unemployment is still high, and non gov’t backed financing is difficult to get. If the gov’t pulls out of the mortgage guaranteeing game (as proposed) over the next 5 years prices should continue to fall.

I agree. All are much better arguments for a sustained and significant housing decline than the recent graphs.