patrick.net

Gotta love those agents.

Yeah flattening before further downturn.

ECONCAT88 would disagree with Realtard.

Video: http://www.youtube.com/user/EconCat88#p/u/8/d3WAqMzeCoU

Would a used car salesman ever tell you that now wasn't a perfect time to buy a car? Realtors are exactly the same.

StoutFiles says

Would a used car salesman ever tell you that now wasn’t a perfect time to buy a car? Realtors are exactly the same.

Not quite. Realtor says "sell it for profit later", car salesman don't say that. The former is pushing people off the cliff. :)

Well all things being relative, some areas, are bellow the over all market bottom. The question is, are those homes something that would suit your needs. There are plenty of Buildings that could be bought for ridiculous cheap. But those homes, most would view more as "Investment" properties.
Houses that people would value to live in, are at Schiller index level, which we all know where that train is headed.

But if you have 50K laying around you would want to put into a 2500 sqft Duplex double 2br building, there's plenty of those. Or if you want to spend 35K-75K on 1200 to 1700 sqft fixer upper there's plenty of those as well.

But a 3br Ranch 1700sqft and above, you're still looking at least 175K on the conventional market.

That's not to say, you might find a Conventional seller, that needs to get the "H", "E", double hockey sticks out of town, now, might sell their house anywhere bellow the going rate. Then combined with good mortgage terms, and interest rates, that would be a better deal than say when the market does "Fatten out" those terms will be hard to come by. When the market does level out, and coincides with Global economic stability, I suspect 9-15% interest rates.

I bought on the latter, as the sole impetus for jumping in before the absolute bottom.

But it wont surprise me one bit, if my 160K purchase goes down to 120K before this is over.

Though I've been following the sales data, and the price range for what I bought has been hovering around what I bought at.(All things being equal).

It jogs down a grand a week for a month, then ticks back up several grand over the next few weeks.

It's hard to tell if that's from games or what, but those are conventional sales driving that trend, and not the short sales, and foreclosures.

In closing I'll say, that if you wanted to buy now, you'll find something that you could live with if the price fell another 10 to 20% and it wouldn't kill you(Unless you were expecting to flip it, of course) But you will have a tough go weeding through the Realtor games and Bullshit, they inject to the process to get it.

bubblesitter says

Not quite. Realtor says “sell it for profit later”, car salesman don’t say that.

Car salesmen are boyscouts compared to realtors.

@Tenouncetrout

Just out of curiosity, if a 2500sqft duplex double 2br building is going for $50k, but a 3br ranch 1700sqft is at $175k+, why wouldn't someone just buy the former and use it as a single family? Perhaps due to myself being in the suburb of a metropolis, converting Single-family to two-family actually is a very costly and time-consuming process for the permitting alone. Also, the existing two-family would have much better rental income potential, especially given I agree with you that the next leg down will involve much higher interest rate (rental income can cover existing fixed low rate mortgage whereas a sale would necessitate bringing money to the table for closing, assuming the owner has other assets.)

tell your realtor to talk to another south floridian real estate agent..
that way he can tell your Realtor what a scumbag he/she is...
bob hoffman, margate, politicalgateway.com

scumbags need money too I guess.

I'm a couple hours north of Miami and I would agree with your agent - on the surface. It does look like there are some reasonable prices out there (though I'm not sure I'd call them "deals").

I'd ask how many of these deals are listed at real numbers, and how many are "make me an offer" type short sales. I looked a couple of these "deals" - one, the listing agent refused to show it because there was already an offer (while the property has been sitting vacant); the other also had an offer but both were short sales pending bank approval. I expect these are going to be sold to the highest cash bidder and it's going to take close to a year to complete while valuations continue to fall. The second place had been issued a notice of foreclosure December 2009.

I'd then ask what the agent thought about all the foreclosures and REOs that were halted or pulled from the market during the robosigning scandal. This scandal only now appears to be abating, and it's starting with the smallest lenders (local credit unions, etc.)

Finally, I'd ask the agent what they expect to happen if interest rates begin to rise. The U.S. can only issue so much debt before debt buyers are going to start demanding better returns.

Of course, as long as the Fed is buying ('monetizing') debt prices are being artificially held up as well; the dismantling of Freddie/Fannie would work to push prices down. At this point the former is far more powerful than the latter (if it were to happen), but foreclosures, shadow inventory, and rising rates are going to be the big pressures for the next couple years.

Need a comeback? Tell him/her you are waiting for better "deals".

Reality says

if a 2500sqft duplex double 2br building is going for $50k, but a 3br ranch 1700sqft is at $175k+, why wouldn’t someone just buy the former and use it as a single family? Perhaps due to myself being in the suburb of a metropolis, converting Single-family to two-family actually is a very costly and time-consuming process for the permitting alone. Also, the existing two-family would have

Neighborhood, condition of property, I don't know.
But go to Trulia.com and browse, Hollywood Florida Recent sales tab, and look at the sales for the last year.
Order by price, those at the bottom are investor cash deals, and those at the top are conventional.
It's two worlds really.

Are you serious? I live in Miami and the party is back on. Realtors are talking about the market like it's 2006! "Buy now or you'll forever be priced out!" There are plenty of dumb foreigners willing to buy these properties and then get raped on condo fees for a few years. Buildings are still in the phase where fees are artificially being held down by the developer to spur buying. Once those hit true levels - and with special assessments for all the stuff that starts breaking a few years in - people will only be able to take the pain for so long.

By the way, I figured out a way that banks are cooking their books for commercial real estate!!!

Did anyone notice how many bank branches are going up in all those new and empty developments? There's a Suntrust and CIti on every corner now! So imagine that these banks are paying rents to themselves. This is definitely a way to manipulate empty real estate data and profits/incomes for a few more quarters so current CEOs can get their golden parachutes for excellent performance. All you need is a couple of 50 million dollar stock options bonuses to be in good shape.

Asians are buying up property in Florida. They are the ones showing up at the auctions. Buying every condo they can buy at 30k a pop. Its investor driven market causing the spikes in sales. Its not the retail homebuyer. The fannie may protection may help some people who need a home but mostly investors are purchasing in Florida. So homes are being bought.
I live on the east coast just north of Palm Beach and there are lots of investors here. I went to two auctions and property is being sold. I stopped bidding on a home the other day at 180k and a guy paid 220k so go figure?

msaghirmd says

Are you serious? I live in Miami and the party is back on. Realtors are talking about the market like it’s 2006! “Buy now or you’ll forever be priced out!” There are plenty of dumb foreigners willing to buy these properties and then get raped on condo fees for a few years. Buildings are still in the phase where fees are artificially being held down by the developer to spur buying. Once those hit true levels - and with special assessments for all the stuff that starts breaking a few years in - people will only be able to take the pain for so long.

Unless you are trying to buy in Coconut Grove or Coral Gables and other posh neighborhoods, prices are a lot better in Miami. Albeit pound for pound a little more pricey than in Broward.
Those upper end neighborhoods, have always been pricey in Miami.

http://www.trulia.com/FL/Miami/#sold/Miami,FL/3p_beds/SINGLE-FAMILY_HOME_type/fs:1,s:1_pt/

leveling off my ass!!! I live in south florida and there is so much shadow inventory coming on the market its pathetic. people are living in their houses for over two years without paying the mortgage. Eventually all these distressed properties will come on the market.

Tarp is over, the banks don't have any incentive anymore to sit on vacant homes, Uncle Sam isn't giving them money for their losses.
Just look at public sales, there has been 5X more sales just in the last 6 months than from 07 to August of last year.

Most of the houses in Hollywood that has been just sitting since '07, have finally been sold. Just in the last 2 months 4 houses were sold. These are houses I watched for at least three years, just sitting empty with out a for sale sign just part of the Ghost inventory.

I'm not saying ALL of the inventory is gone, but it's finally moving, and prices are all over the place. I wouldn't be concerned about being priced out if I were still in the market by no means.

When I bought my house in September, I looked at recent sales, my house was one of three comparable, in the last three years. Now since September, there has been at least 10 comparable, and probably 40 to 50 less or more comparable.

But one thing I've noticed prices are either stable or going down on the comparable. The ones that go cheaper, seem to be cash only buyers that was at the right place at the right time. And got those houses for under 50K. Most conventional sales are all in the same range, pound for pound comparable. Where as there are few homes that went for what I would consider overly inflated more than what I would pay.

But that was probably a buyer that could afford it, and wasn't interested in other places that were available, given the stock, but still insisted on living in that area. A house is only worth what someone will pay after all, and I view those sales as the seller was a lucky so and so, that some one bit.

But America could be a third world country and "real" luxury communities, I'm not talking about Burbdale mcMansion gated communities but places that have historically fell in that "Location location location" mantra, for their price merits. Those places will always be expensive.

The rest not so much.

Sorry Robert but the rental game is over too. WAY too many rentals out there as everybody thinks they will rent until the market turns around.

The market overall is much closer to reality now, at least if you consider foreclosures in the averages. When you see signs like "Investor property - 4/2 only $20k CASH ONLY", you know you are almost getting there. In my situation I was forced to buy in mid 2008, even knowing the market would continue to tank. I got the best non-forclosure deal in my area with the seller crying at the closing. I am still water under by at least 33% and possibly more. How I wish I could have waited another 2-3 years. The fixed rate of 5% will probably be nice down the road when Obama Inflation really takes hold.

amigaguy says

The market overall is much closer to reality now, at least if you consider foreclosures in the averages. When you see signs like “Investor property - 4/2 only $20k CASH ONLY”, you know you are almost getting there. In my situation I was forced to buy in mid 2008, even knowing the market would continue to tank. I got the best non-forclosure deal in my area with the seller crying at the closing. I am still water under by at least 33% and possibly more. How I wish I could have waited another 2-3 years. The fixed rate of 5% will probably be nice down the road when Obama Inflation really takes hold.

Was the seller really crying? I had a Realtor not too long ago, give me a big sob story about how his client really needed to get so much for their property. It was going to fund their retirement as they were moving into a 55+ appartment complex.

I wasn't interested in overpaying for the house so said no thanks. To this date, the house is still on the market. It's been 3+ years and a number of Realtors have come and gone.

jvolstad says

Was the seller really crying? I had a Realtor not too long ago, give me a big sob story about how his client really needed to get so much for their property. It was going to fund their retirement as they were moving into a 55+ appartment complex.

I wasn’t interested in overpaying for the house so said no thanks. To this date, the house is still on the market. It’s been 3+ years and a number of Realtors have come and gone.

That's such a shameful sales technique. The seller's financial situation should have no bearing on the buyer. Do the sellers really expect you to overpay for their house to fund their retirement? As much as I'd like to sympathize with someone whose expected windfalls were "crushed" by the forces of the market, their expectations were based on a price anomaly.

They may as well be out pan-handling people, asking for $30k donations. It's bad enough that they're going to get to enjoy social security and medicare benefits that many of us will never see (yet fully pay for). Typical for retiring baby boomers, they can't possibly even think about it that way, it's all about what THEY need.

Current generation looking to be bailed out by next generation. I'll have to see how that plays out in the end.

jvolstad says

Was the seller really crying?

She wasn't openly sobbing, but it appeared she welled up a bit. I bought the house in 2008, she owned the house since 1999. I think she refinanced along the way sometime. When she closed she found out she would only get $4k net back from the sale and she welled up.

Confucius say: "Man who listen to Reality Trac, Case Shiller, Core logic, NAR. Drive around town with football helmet on backwards. Slam into wall."

Well they caught Osama its all over. I guess real estate will recover. We appropriate at least 3 billion dollars a week in D.C. With all the re-ward money. I guess one of those religious people finally caved in and gave him up. It all makes sense. Yep we have some real dedicated hound dogs working in America. It only took 10 years and a trillion dollars in military equipment. Another 3 billion in pay for the armed forces. We killed about 4000 people. Of course there was the slip up of putting out Yosemite Sam wanted posters instead of Osama posters. That gave him a few years on us. When we finally figured out we had the wrong wanted posters up there. We increased the re-ward to 25,000@$. That was it for him. I think "God bless America" is appropriate here. Or maybe we should change that to "God wonders about America" I sure do.

I think we need people in Washington. Like many of the people on this blog. You seem to be very loyal in what you intend to do for the future of this country. What is intended here is that you get with the people that can put you where you need to be for the future. California has many good people with very many skills. Speakers etc. That understand Washington and the future. Many people are forgien to this. People like you have waited for years and years to become and take over the responsiblity for the future. I feel the time is now.