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michaelsch
@
2011 May 27, 6:06am
No, lifetimes just determine the total population size. If only 2 babies enter for every 2 people, the population will always be steady state, unless lifetimes are infinite.
Actually it's 2.3. Because:
1. In a normal situation male/female newborn ratio is about 52/48. This is caused by diffrent velocity of spermatozoids with male/female genes.
2. There is infant mortality.
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Came across this article today:
Is The Human Race Doomed? Deutsche Bank On "One The Most Important (Future) Turning Points In History"
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/human-race-doomed-deutsche-bank-one-most-important-future-turning-points-history
Lots of sensationalism in the title, but still... I had no idea that demographics had shifted so strongly throughout the world over the past 60 years.
One useful way to think about trends in birth rates is to look at what is called the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). This is the average number of live births per woman over her lifetime. [...] the replacement level of TFR is a little above 2.3 for the world as a whole.
The TFR for most developed countries now stands well below replacement levels. The OECD average is at around 1.74 but there are countries like Germany and Japan that produce less than 1.4 children per woman. However, the biggest TFR declines in recent years have been in emerging economies. According to the UN's population division, the TFR in China and India were 6.1 and 5.9 respectively in 1950. The ratio has now fallen to 1.8 in China due to the aggressive one-child policy and to 2.6 in India due to a steady change in social attitudes.[Emphasis added]
If this stuff is correct, it indicates that the global human population will eventually level off and start shrinking... and with shrinking comes lots of economic issues... for instance, decreased demand for soylent green, eh?