patrick.net

Speaking of switching careers...
I wonder what the newbie RE moguls are thinking right about now, that is if they're paying attention. There was a cover story in the Sac Bee earlier this week about the housing market and Placer Co. (where I live) showed that sales were down 16% from last year. So that means fewer homes selling but more realtors vying for sales. I wonder how long before it sinks in that maybe they made the wrong career choice.

I bow down to you both.

BayQT~

If you start a thread then you too will have the power to delete at will. :twisted:

If you start a thread then you too will have the power to delete at will.

If you do not start a thread you can still delete...
... your own comments before you hit the "Submit Comment" button.

One of my sisters-in-Law in SB Miami just called to brag about the $500K 2Bdm condo she and her boyfried just bought. This is the same sister who once chided my wife for "still" driving a '96 Honda Accord, while bragging about her fancy new (leased) S-class. She told me she was a little worried about it "possibly losing some value if there's a bubble."

I told her not to worry, in fact I told her to go ahead & take out a nice, big HELOC and buy some new furniture, and a plasma tv for each room. Just kidding --that's what I WANTED to tell her. Since it was already a done deal, there really any point in being critical, so I just said, "congratulations, enjoy your new condo." I'll give her this much: she bought with 10% down using a conventional fixed-rate. Unusual these days.

10-year yield back down to 4.19%.

See, the market is anticipanting a slowdown. You may win the yield bet though... although I will probably win the yield-curve inversion bet. Should we bet a modest sushi dinner?

If you do not start a thread you can still delete…
… your own comments before you hit the “Submit Comment” button.

If only more people exercised this power. :mrgreen:

An alternative meaning of NAAVLP...

National Association for Assistance to the Very Leveraged People

We will need this organization in the coming times.

All,

Here's something that I bears mentioning and that is about the new credit card minimum payment increase. That is going to go into effect in September/October and there is not that much info splashing across the media.

tinyurl.com/d69wx

Can you imagine? Supposedly, the average number of credit cards that folks hold is 10. Geez, that's sounds crazy to me....I only have $200 Macy's and $600 Visa bills, and THOSE puppies will be paid off soon. But what about those folks who hold 10-15 credit cards that are max'd or close to it? With limits of thousands of dollars? I read a story the other day where the guy was saying that he's just getting by by paying the minimum on all of his cards.

PLUS...it happens just before the new bankruptcy law. Some people will surely have their hats handed to them.

This is not good people, not good at all.

BayQT~

If you do not start a thread you can still delete…
… your own comments before you hit the “Submit Comment” button.

Very true....but the problem seems to come up with the urls, which you may not know will create the problem UNTIL you hit the button. I'm SURE I used the tinyurls before with the www...maybe not.....but I thought I was ok. :-(

Hmmm...lemme see....thinking of a topic. :-)

BayQT~

Hmmm…lemme see….thinking of a topic.

BayQT, I recommend checking back under "Lurker's Turn" if you need new ideas -that's what it's there for.

BayQT, I recommend checking back under “Lurker’s Turn” if you need new ideas -that’s what it’s there for.

Thanks, Harm....I'll check it.

BayQT~

Good for you for trying to talk some sense into them. It’s so bad to watch family and close friends do stupid things.

Thanks Sacto, I can alwayshope they're smart enough (imho) to pass on this "deal."

On topic, the new bankruptcy law is probably a good thing as it shifts the risk from institutions to individuals.

Only if those individuals can reasonably repay a meaningful portion of debt. Doubtful.

the new law certainly protects the public from idiot debtors. it is much harder to claim bankruptcy. I think Bush made a good move with this.

Hopefully, the new law wwill deter irresponsible spending.

However, if the debtors just cannot pay anything back it would be impossible to get anything from them. Unless we let them sell their kidneys... :evil:

Real Estate Does Not Go Down

There will be lot of people losing their shirts like this owing to fraudulent appraisals and over-valued properties..., thus, becoming upside-down.

BayQT~

My wife teaches high school Econ and spends a disproportionate amount of time teaching about personal finance (not supposed to be a big part of the curriculum but she thinks it’s more important). She stresses the wise use of credit so much the students get sick of the repetition. She’s also warned them all about the housing bubble, too. Some of her students are worried because their parents recently bought houses in AZ, etc.

That's a very good thing what you wife is doing. Hopefully, it will help these kids to not repeat any of the mistakes that people are making now.

BayQT~

MarinaPrime, on Aug 13 I said "The yield curve will be inverted late this year or early next year", so give it until March?

What modest sushi dinner should we bet on?

Hmm.. win I get to eat sushi, lose I get to eat sushi, not bad a deal at all. :)

Why is no airtime being given to the news that median home prices have been falling for three months, and are already down to 2003Q4 levels?

I took Home Econ in high school in Chicago circa 1960's.

BayQT~

50 is a pretty late year to be getting your RN. when i was in BS CS they told me that the job market would continue to grow for 40 years at least!

They also said telephone switch operators would grow at incredible rates... that was before automated switch boards.

Why is no airtime being given to the news that median home prices have been falling for three months, and are already down to 2003Q4 levels?

It does not matter any more... people will face reality very soon...

Where is Face Reality?

From theStreet.com (content taken from Ben Jone's blog)

"The first thing that comes to mind is another [Long-Term Capital Management] type of situation," says Dan Hogan, head of Nasdaq trading at KeyBanc Capital. He had not heard of the report himself and couldn't confirm whether it had actually impacted the market or not."

Did I hear mid-September? The October will be interesting times. Pieces are falling in places.

The scary part is that I picked October before I knew all these (including new bankruptcy law).

Yes, I'll play Nostradamus with you. Is it a card game?

It’s interesting to observe as a bull how so few posters acknowledged the Marina SFH 3b/2bath that went $400,000 over asking to $2.425MM.

So, sushi bet or not (regarding the yield curve)?

Off blog topic but we usually don't worry about that too much...

Very good article on the oil reserves in the world - interesting read whatever your take on it:
http://tinyurl.com/a5d4a

It is a NY times article so you might need to subscribe (not sure it's automatic for me).

but it is easy to get insurance if you are a 50 year old chain smoker with lung cancer

Only if you pay big $$ to the insurance co. and even then it's hard to get. I know this because both parents are not it the best of health and insurance coverage has been a bitch.

RE: median home prices/sales

The story I saw on the nightly news said sales were up nationally for July, but that prices were down. You can extrapolate what you want from it, but IMO it really makes the point that things are getting less predictable.

Most people that I know who actually want to cure people go into ‘alternative medicine’.

Soooooooooooo true. I've had to go that route myself. I had a hard time after the birth of my daughter and the medical profession really let me down. My chiropractor was the only one who offered any help, and it was of a holistic nature, but it sure worked better than any alternative offered by my doctor-- which was none.

As of this morning, ebrdi.com, the East Bay MLS (Alameda & Contra Costa) has passed the 6000 mark in active listings. This is up from hovering around 4000 just 4 months ago in April.

As of this morning, ebrdi.com, the East Bay MLS (Alameda & Contra Costa) has passed the 6000 mark in active listings. This is up from hovering around 4000 just 4 months ago in April.

Wow...that's a 50% increase! Perhaps a cash-out before it's too late? (may already be)
I'm tracking MLS stats for Marin, Napa, and Sonoma. It would be interesting if there's a correlation.

"I’m tracking MLS stats for Marin, Napa, and Sonoma. It would be interesting if there’s a correlation."

So what are you seeing up there?

I know Sacramento has really seen a surge in listings. Heard it's now at the highest level since 1999.

“I’m tracking MLS stats for Marin, Napa, and Sonoma. It would be interesting if there’s a correlation.”

So what are you seeing up there?

I started tracking in early August, so you're way ahead of me. Looking around, I see that homes locally are sitting much longer, and others saying "price reduced". Sales are down, inventory is up (I have data on that), so I'm guessing people aren't willing to budge on the price, and the home sits...

I know Sacramento has really seen a surge in listings. Heard it’s now at the highest level since 1999.

Certain areas of Sac have seen a big increase in inventory. Rental listings in those areas are up too. Articles in the paper say that speculators in certain areas are getting spooked and are trying to sell.

I guess realtors cant convince buys that they have to jump on a property if its been on the mkt for 8 weeks

Nope, don't want to give them a competitive edge, eh?

Here's a direct example...I've mentioned this flipped property before (way overpriced, on a busy street, etc.). I think it's been out there for a month, and it's dropped from $800K to $774. (huh --real estate goes down after all) And since it's nearby, so it will be fun to see if it drops further.

http://tinyurl.com/b6hpf

...so I’m guessing people aren’t willing to budge on the price, and the home sits…

I guarantee you that something will give shortly. There are still those people who have bought the 2nd or 3rd house/condo/townhouse that has been sitting empty since they purchased them. The plans that many of them had in mind was to either rent them out for a short time (renting less than the monthly mortgage), then sell (at a profit), or let it sit empty (while they dug into their pockets) for a few months or a year and sell (again, supposedly, at a profit). I suspect that those folks may be getting a little nervous at the reduction of prices around them.

Now, regarding MP's Marina's whoop-de-doo dream house....there are just folks who have money to throw at anything and will find words to justify it. Granted, it is probably "prime" property (what IS a good, working definition of "prime"?) but...wow...that's a lot of money. $400K over asking? How many offers could there have been? Just wondering....

BayQT~

Here’s a direct example…I’ve mentioned this flipped property before (way overpriced, on a busy street, etc.). I think it’s been out there for a month, and it’s dropped from $800K to $774.

I've always thought of San Anselmo to be such a quaint little town. And that's such a cute house. But, DAYUMM, 3/4's of a million dollars?? I'll just snap a picture and put it on my refrigerator, thank you. LOL!

BayQT~

sfbayqt:
Now, regarding MP’s Marina’s whoop-de-doo dream house….there are just folks who have money to throw at anything and will find words to justify it. Granted, it is probably “prime” property (what IS a good, working definition of “prime”?) but…wow…that’s a lot of money. $400K over asking? How many offers could there have been? Just wondering….

Yeah, I agree--it's only a matter of time before these "investors" realize the magnitude of their mistake. Regarding the Marina--I'm sure that area has attracted MANY investors too (just wealthier but no more wise) Sorry MP--nothing personal. I think it's a great area, just a bit steep. Regarding "prime" areas, I also wonder if the dynamic is any different there. Yesterday, I was in Belvedere, which is one of the pricier (or "prime") bay area zip codes (if not in the whole country). There, I've noticed the same homes for sale since January. The home prices range between $2M-$4M, a 2BR townhouse for $1.1M . So, I'm starting to wonder...why aren't these waterfront homes snapped up right away, or do the wealthy consider them overpriced as well? Perhaps...the wealthy* care about value as much as average joe? For that reason, I wonder if prices will drop across the board if a "crash" ensues?

*unless a $20K/mo. mortgage+tax is chump change for you.

is it illegal to put MLS data online?

What--confidential, or public knowledge?

can I use MLS to tell me how many times a property has changed hands in a given time frame and what the sale prices were?

I wish I had that info! I just use realtor.com--or look at local listings. If there's a way to see the history of a property, that would sure be informative.