▲
0
0
▼

Land Prices & the Property Bubble


 invite response                
2005 Aug 25, 1:03pm   12,299 views  126 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Per GreenCanopy's request:

Several here emphasize housing as an investment, shorn of mystique, a place to put money. While this a simplified picture, it is analysis-friendly. Treating housing as an asset class leads to a couple of interesting questions (–> topics?): To what degree can we understand the ‘bubble’ as herd-mentality asset rotation, and how can we further decompose the asset class called ‘housing’.

I like the second one first, because it has more to suggest for what types of property might do well during a deflation. Housing decomposed as Land+(Bricks+Sticks)+Labor+Regulation vs the MacroEc variables. What you haven’t covered (or I’ve missed) is an opinion on land prices and their behavior within the property bubble. Should they behave similarly?

Things to consider:

  • Higher housing supply = More available houses, but less attractive land. No, we’re not really running out of land, but is there enough of a perception to preserve a mania?
  • The NAAVLP phenomena applies much less to lots, as applications for land mortgages and construction loans are examined quite rigorously (simultaneously fogging two mirrors…). Perhaps speculation is as rampant with land, but could the landowner be less forced to run for the exits? Also, the tax burden is lower on unimproved land.
  • Study One, Bank of Canada, emphasizes land’s importance in housing appreciation:
    The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the U.S. http://tinyurl.com/dpx6u
  • Study Two, Cato, emphasizing regulation’s importance in housing appreciation:
    Zoning’s Steep Price http://tinyurl.com/dhng5

    • Thoughts?

    #housing

    « First        Comments 118 - 126 of 126        Search these comments

    118   Peter P   2005 Aug 27, 5:44am  

    changing his name to Scrooge McDuck.

    LOL :lol:

    119   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 6:54am  

    Primetroll's idea has merit. If MP get's over his tantrum and checks back in, and the vote goes in the 'let him stay' direction, let him have his thread and those of us who'd rather not talk to him can just not participate in that thread. The real trick will be in getting him to stay off the other threads.

    120   KurtS   2005 Aug 27, 6:57am  

    Let’s get this over with as quickly as possible, so we don’t waste even more time on the subject, okay? I want a thumbs up or down on MP from EVERYONE –not just regulars.

    Well, only because we get "blogged down" on this one person--bye!
    Conversely, I think it's good to consider how I can bring something interesting/useflul to this site.

    121   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 6:59am  

    Well, only because we get “blogged down” on this one person–bye!
    Conversely, I think it’s good to consider how I can bring something interesting/useflul to this site.

    I suppose we should all be asking ourselves that.

    122   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 8:15am  

    Ultimately the problem with MP is that I want to give the guy the benefit of the doubt but he always screws it up for me. :neutral:

    123   HARM   2005 Aug 27, 5:36pm  

    Ok, it's past midnight, so the "polls are closed" so to speak. Fellow blogsters, may I have the envelope please.... (drumroll)

    Ban MP: 9
    (10 if you include astrid, who hasn't posted since the "incident")
    keep him: 2
    Abstain: 1

    BAN IT IS!

    124   HARM   2005 Aug 27, 6:19pm  

    Some parting thoughts...

    Things about MP I will miss:
    1. Having a relentless anti-bubble contrarian to argue with now that Fake P & Face Reality rarely post anymore.
    2. primetrolls' MP-inspired poetry
    3. His comic relief value --many of his claims and "arguments" were so ridiculous and over-the-top that they couldn't be taken seriously.

    Things about MP I WON'T miss:
    1. His immature, arrogant, solipsistic way of defining everything in relation to his own absurd, inflated ego-projection of himself.
    2. His tendency to provoke (or manage to be the center of) numerous nasty flame wars, thereby driving away quality posters.
    3. ALWAYS ON TRANSMIT NEVER ON RECEIVE (over time he improved somewhat, but this tendency never really went away).
    4. His whiny, disingenuous, fake self-pitying (see his "last" post above) and painting himself as a victim when he damned well knows WHY he's being banned.

    Too bad it has to come to this, but sometimes "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one."

    125   HARM   2005 Aug 28, 3:40am  

    Np, Jack. Hopefully this will put the matter to bed for good.
    I've already noticed a measurable improvement in the quality of posts and participation --heck, even Surfer-X came back to weigh in.

    126   praetorian   2005 Aug 28, 7:24am  

    “the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one.”

    Here's the great thing about the internet: He can start his own blog, and put out his message for all to consider. Not only that, he can turn on comments, and he can link to posts here, posting counter-arguments.

    So, he get's a forum for his viewpoints, and we don't have to do bayesian a**hole filtering when reading threads here. And, if the fancy strikes us, we can head over to his place to see his arguments.

    Really, it's a win-win.

    Cheers,
    prat

    « First        Comments 118 - 126 of 126        Search these comments

    Please register to comment:

    api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste