patrick.net

@TWIT: I would add to the above: A surplus of information creates just as many disparities as a lack of information, given that the general public usually lacks the knowledge and wisdom to discern the valuable from the valueless. So the people would have to be perfect too.

SactoQT, I prefer to think we’re smart enough to appreciate non-lowest common denominator thinking

Works for me. :)
I'm going to start watching my DVD's again soon so I can bone up on my Serenity lore. I did the whole Buffy/Angel thing too right after they took firefly off the air. I need some kind of fix that had a Whedon feel to it. But enough digression...
Simple Life ....bleeeach. ;)

zepyr, you are getting your law degree, correct? In ten years you and your husband (whoever he may be) will almost assuredly be able to afford a house in the Bay Area. What kind of job are you looking for, that will have you jetting back and forth across the Pacific? Some kind of International Law?

My hope is that the movie kindles enough interest in Firefly to allow the series to start up again (or at least get a different studio to offer Fox enough $$ to release its strangle-hold on the series). A futile hope I know, but I guess I'm a dreamer...

but I guess I’m a dreamer…

But you're not the only one.......

What is Firefly?

I feel disconnected. :(

I hope someday the rest of the Posse will join us, and the blog will live as one. :-D

(ok, that's enough Lennon - don't want to cause Surfer-X's head to explode)

Firefly is a great tv show by the creator of Buffy the Vampire slayer.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaannd the blooooog ......
I'd better not.

@Peter,

fireflyfans.net/reference.asp?r=696
fireflymovie.com/intro.html

almost forgot the official site:

http://browncoats.serenitymovie.com/serenity/

Sorry, TWIT :-)

‹^›_‹(ô¿ô)›_‹^›

:lol:

"Has anyone seen coverage of how Katrina will affect the US refinery capacity? I always hear that Louisiana has a lot of oil refineries and that US refinery capacity is a major bottleneck."

Hope this helps.

“Crude is a sideshow here,” said Paul Hornsnell, head of energy research at Barclays Capital in London. “We were expecting gas to spike even before the storm hit because the situation was already very very tight — refineries were having trouble increasing production and inventories were (already) at a 20-month low — and that was last week.”

Eight refineries were shut down due to Katrina — half of them producing gasoline. Vienna’s PVM Oil Associates additionally reported at least three others flooded and power failures sidelining others for an unknown length of time.

Hornsnell said the damage translated into an estimated 30-million-barrel loss in gasoline output — a problem that cannot be solved by increasing crude production or siphoning oil from the U.S. petroleum reserve.

...Crude and distillate stocks were likely to rise. Katrina’s influence on U.S. stocks will only be realized in next week’s report but some analysts already claim to know the score — even if the Bush administration taps the nation’s crude oil stockpile to help refiners.

“In the next few months, there’s no upside,” said economist Mark Zandi of Economy.com, an economic consulting service. “And this winter, we’re going to feel it more noticeably as people pay record gas prices and record home-heating bills.”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5612507/

Time to buy a moped.

“Crude is a sideshow here,” said Paul Hornsnell, head of energy research at Barclays Capital in London. “We were expecting gas to spike even before the storm hit because the situation was already very very tight — refineries were having trouble increasing production and inventories were (already) at a 20-month low — and that was last week.”

Gas did spike a lot.

http://tinyurl.com/75ema

Note the gap open near the right edge of the chart.

Just to clarify, the chart is for Natural Gas, not gasoline, which is equally crazy:

http://tinyurl.com/a22cx

"Just to clarify, the chart is for Natural Gas..."

hahahaha, thanks for pointing that out as well. I guess I'm getting tired. Thanks for the charts Peter. Now can you please point me to the direction of my bedroom.

Good night.

Pywiack, Thanks for the link about Valdez, Alaska. Very interesting.

NO is such a large city, I imagine any kind of relocation effort would be very difficult. And because it's one of those places that people have such strong emotional attachments to...I don't know. Common sense doesn't always prevail. I would not be surprised by the erection of even bigger levees. Maybe a lot of the population will just disperse elsewhere and stay, but even that would surprise me.

My home heating/cooling costs are already outrageous, the thought of it going up even more will have an impact on my spending, as will the rising cost of gas. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't think I'll stay there long.

Maybe I’m in the minority, but I don’t think I’ll stay there long.

Huh? Stay where?

Huh? Stay where?

I don't think I'll be in the minority for long. I think the rising cost of everything will force people to slow down on their spending.

Thanks for the housingmaps link, Surfer-X. Pardon my ignorance, but what does the color-coding represent (R-Y-G) ?

Sorry, Schmend Rick - I just called you Surfer-X. Must be the lack of coffee ;-)

BTW is it time for a post on whether Katrina will force a rate hike pause?

Yes, bring it on!

Or is that just too unknowable?

Whether it is unknowable is difficult to ascertain, if not unknowable itself. ;)

When is a price slump not a price slump, when its a correction.
Gotta love spin doctors.

Prices have fallen 5% in Sydney Oz, with next few years flat or falling.
Watch the exits for the scared investors.

tinyurl.com/b682v
(use bugmenot.com to get password for smh.com.au if necessary)

Back to lurking zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

BTW is it time for a post on whether Katrina will force a rate hike pause?

Yes, bring it on!

What? Bring on rate hike or a post?

I guess excess housing supply might now not be so extreme, but it will also mean that unemployment just surged.

What? Bring on rate hike or a post?

Both. Should we have a new thread on Katrina and rate hikes?

Katrina and rate hikes

Sounds like a pop band.

I think I called peter patrick once anyway.

No problem. Some thinks the "P" in "Peter P" means Patrick. It is not. The "P" stands for "Peter P".

Yes, now I feel a little bit of stack overflow.

Its the 30-year fixed mortgage

I don't get it, what's the catch here? Does it involve no money down, a cash-out refi, HELOC or some kinda IO-teaser rate? Why on earth would anyone want something like that!!

Loan originators will be thrilled if the fear of adjustables is put into the public and fixed becomes the hot must-have smart-money new-economy thing. They make money every time!

No risk to them regardless, but why not get $5k per go-round?

Do I win the “biggest bear of the day” award?

30% over 5 years? You're bearish, but not even close to Prat's 70% by... um... yesterday. :mrgreen:

I'm sure banks will continue to push "easy entry" ARM/IO/etc mortgages because they want to maintain volume/market share. Against all good reason, this might keep the bubble fueled for a while, and result in a harder correction?

(not "expert"--or investment advice)

Oh and I went for this super exotic loan, the 30 year fixed.

Sounds risky.

"until you wake up a bear one day."

Jack, so you're a bear now? Damn...who's going to keep us in line?

"You’re bearish, but not even close to Prat’s 70% by… um… yesterday."

That was *50%*.

I'm a bear, but it's not like I'm an *idiot* or something.

And note, my argument was that *either* there would be a 50% reduction in bay area housing prices OR that the storm of the century would destroy New Orleans by the end of august. Of course, I always felt the second clause was evident enough to omit making explicit.

chewbacca,
prat

Jack

My computer kept saying it couldn't connect with the remote computer last night, so I was essentially kicked off the night shift. And it's true the Katrina disaster is something that I spend several hours a night keeping up on. It's so tough to watch what's going on, but I almost feel I have to since so many are suffering. Does that make any sense? We've already donated to the disaster relief but that seems like such a small contribution. I wonder if donated blood would help? Sad sad sad.

I'd prefer not to get into the politics of the whole deal. Let's face it, there are a lot of agencies like FEMA who were also caught with their pants down. You can argue that since FEMA is Federal it's another Bush F*** up, but FEMA is in charge of disaster relief regardless of who sits in office. The fact is the scope of this disaster was overwhelmingly underestimated. I will say this though. Despite the massive problems that have been occuring, I'd still rather face a disaster like this in the U.S. because you know that there are at least resources that can be brought to bear and you know for sure that the media will be there to shine a spotlight on what's not being done right. I am also ashamed that so many American citizens are showing the worst side of human nature in the face of disaster. It's a disgrace.

Astrid

Here's the thing, you can find any number of blogs and sites that offer extremely slanted views of the same story and get a totally different outcome, which is why I stay away from politics. My father-in-law is the head of the Air National Guard in Ca, he's a Brigadier General and gets a lot of insight/info that you'll never see on the news. I've talked to many service men and women and other Generals who have been to Afganistan and Iraq and if it is such a cluster f*** they don't see it that way. Plus, they see the positives such as girls who are allowed to go to school for the first time in their lives and women who can actually go to work. That said, you are totally entitled to your view.
As far as natural disasters go, I am unaware of the administrations you mentioned having to deal with one on this scale. Not to mention Sept. 11 and a tsunami. I believe people will believe what they want to. I don't think there is any miracle that Bush can pull out of his ass that will sway any liberal to his side.