patrick.net

to be frank, you can throw back-testing out the window. the markets are so different than they were 10 yrs ago than they were 5 yrs ago than they were 1 yr ago.

it changes at a rapid pace. ideas that used to be able to be exploited over long periods of time will evaporate before your eyes. too many smart people with access to better information than most.

the key to making money in this environment is to own concentrated positions and be very particular about your exit strategy- whether that be a specific price, % gain or holding period.

you can be 100% right about a strategy and get killed because smart money that agreed with you bailed out early and left you holding the bag.

know the companies you want to own like you know "insert something you love". then, based on a risk/reward, opportunity cost type of model, buy only those that you really really like - even if it's only 2 or three.

then, pare down / get out when you believe they are approaching their intrinsic value.

going at this thing with the antiquated buy/hold mutual mentality will leave your portfolio with the sort of growth akin to the distance one may travel on their treadmill.

I have seen the rampant consumerism all over the world, except for some places like Switzerland. Shopping malls in the USA, in Beijing, Hong Kong, Manhattan stores, Walmarts in Mexico, Soriana in Mexico, etc. etc. People around the worldwant to consume.
Decades ago, there was no satellite or cable TV so people in Thailand, China, Vietnam could not see how much stuff the west has. They all want it and they won't stop buying.
Governments won't stop building infrastructure, so Caterpillar won't stop selling. They won't stop growing food, so Monsanto, DuPont, Deere. They won't stop swilling coke and other stuff. They won't stop eating Nestle, Danone, etc. They won't stop taking Viagra (I see it for sale in China, Mexico, etc).
They want cars, energy, healthcare, entertainment, gadgets, Apple, Abercrombie, BMW, Toyota, Ford, Honda.
This is never going to stop. If you want a little piece of this action, you get into stock mutual funds. A share in stock is a share of the profits of the company.
Ask yourself, how else will you own a piece of profits by Apple without working for them?
Downward fluctuations are your friend not your enemy until you absolutely need the money. By then, you'll be older and much richer.

I would rec this post if I could!