patrick.net

Shortest post yet!

I fear that the market won't really correct and that I will continue to be priced out.

My fear is being chased by timberwolves around a table, on a freshly waxed floor, wearing cotton socks

Hehe...Far Side?
I don't fear the credit/re crash as much as the economic toll it will take; we're solvent.
I have no fears that RE won't drop; it's inevitable.

I fear my mom will lose her house. (Just refi’d $1million no doc ARM). I tried to warn her.

Similarly, I'm afraid for my sister, who just bought a home, and now want to buy a second, as an "investment". Oh, and she just quit her job, husband quit too--to become a "wedding photographer" sigh.

I am a little bit worried about the market not correcting soon enough.... but that is not my biggest fear...

If the market crashes as I have predicted and I fail to profit from it, my wife will probably kill me. It is fine to be wrong, but I am very afraid of being right and not able to do something about it.

Actually, the irony of everybody posting saying they are "priced out of the market" is that you likely are not. NAAVLPs are the rule of the day! How else do you explain people with otherwise modest (well below $100K) incomes buying properties worth $500K+. I think the better question is what are your ideal circumstances under which you will be convinced to buy?

I fear we have nothing to fear but fear itself.

Actually, I'm with Kurt S --thought I'm fully convinced the crash is coming (if not already started), I fear the economic & political fallout.

Despite what Alan Greenspan says (who is retiring in Jan. btw), I fear the political pressure on the government to bailout the GSEs and/or private institutional MBS holders will be enormous. In the end, I'm convinced the taxpayer (you & I) will be on the hook for most of this recklessness.

I also fear what's going to happen to the job market, especially in CA when this thing blows. Some 50% of the jobs here have been directly or indireclty tied to the RE market. If prices drop 50% or more in real terms, it won't do ME any good if I don't have a job.

What I am afraid of is that the California I love is gone daddy gone, that the greedy boomer assholes are here to stay, that cash is king and will always been.

Surfer-X, you seem pretty down about the whole situation. I used to live in a small coastal town too, and I sure know how things have changed there.
You know--speculation has been rampant in coastal areas, so the "greedy assholes" (of any age) infesting the coast could get really smacked around when the bust comes. Your day may just come.

"And might just stay that way until the boomer die off and we’ve got that 1-3 year window before the second generation locusts visit."

Actually, there is ample and compelling evidence that the "echo boomers", children of the boomers, aren't as well off as their parents were. Their collective student loan and credit card debt are staggering. They are just joining the job market. How are these folks going to have enough $$ to purchase a home. Yes, some will get mommy and daddy's help, but the majority likely will not. Suze Orman even coined a phrase for echo boomers, "The Young, Fabulous & Broke," which is also the title of her latest book.

I have no faith in the Generation-Y whatsoever. The Baby Boomers spend without much regard to long term consequences... The Echo Boomers spend without any regard to any consequence! They are like the Hitler Youth, but they worship some other things.

Money most definately does not = happiness. My brother used to own his own business making 250K a year, and was miserable. He chucked it all and lives in a small house in Thailand and couldn't be happier.

I guess my biggest fear is that the day of reckoning won’t come, that instead we’ll have a Hebrew Year of Jubilee where all debts are forgiven and the greedy jerks get to keep their huge McMansions scott-free and the rest of us who played it safe and smart get screwed.

This would piss me off something awful. We've tried so hard not to let emotion dictate what we do (fear/greed combo) and if we end up screwed there is no justice.

The echo boom could potentially be the most useless generation yet. Hard to see them continuing the RE run-up unless they get fat inheritences, but the boomers seem determined to spend all of their money. We'll see.

"The echo boom could potentially be the most useless generation yet. Hard to see them continuing the RE run-up unless they get fat inheritences, but the boomers seem determined to spend all of their money. We’ll see."

Actually, A LOT of the baby boomers are COUNTING ON cashing in on their homes since a lot of them don't have nearly enough gto retire on their current lifestyle. This won't leave much for the kids. It's either that or work until your 80 or so.

Actually, A LOT of the baby boomers are COUNTING ON cashing in on their homes since a lot of them don’t have nearly enough gto retire on their current lifestyle. This won’t leave much for the kids. It’s either that or work until your 80 or so.

Very very true. My parent's will definitely need to cash out, or Dad will never retire. I'd love to know statistically speaking how many boomers can retire without cashing out of their homes.

So not all of us boomers are greedy assholes

Of course there are good boomers...

But Gen-Y is the real bad one! (We will not offend anyone here because the Echos will not be reading here.)

Hey MarinaPrime, does Sushi Groove requires reservation? Is it a tiny restaurant?

Generations Boomer, X, Y, Echo, and Slacker? Just in the last 45 years?

Yes, those are human generations.

If we are talking about bateria, that can happen at the blink of an eye. ;)

Hard to see them continuing the RE run-up unless they get fat inheritences, but the boomers seem determined to spend all of their money. We’ll see.

Their party can continue only for so long; credit issues are following close on their heels. I've seen a lot of frustration (counting myself) due to looking at the past 10 years, and assuming that's "the norm". Imo, the speculative RE run-up has been going for a bit longer than many assume, and the local demographics/economy (even Marin) cannot support these prices forever. Given the current situation, many people regard RE as an entity that's self-pricing, when in truth it's driven by real homeowners with jobs.
Well, this has all be said before. Bottom line: no reason to be fatalistic, correction coming.

I used to live kitty corner to the Haut shop.

I bought my board there back in high school. I was always a crappy surfer, but I should've kept the board.

Hey, Surfer-X, looks like we have mostly Gen-Xs and some Boomers here. :)

I can remember my father-in-law shaking his head mumbling something about Gen-X whenever my husband did something to infuriate him. Hilarious.

Just ignore it and it'll go away. He's just baiting everyone to get attention. Besides, tried banning, but he's got nothing else to do so he keeps changing his email address to get back in.

MP voice = charlie brown teacher voice "waa wa wa waa"

I predict his brain will shrivel up and die from lack of use.

I think I'll take off, no point in feeding the troll.

Nice way to get around the fact you GUYS CAN’T MAKE A NEGATIVE PREDICTION EVEN THOUGH U MAKE NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS ALL YEAR LONG

I iwll make a prediction if you tell me more about Groove Sushi.

he’s got nothing else to do

I simply cannot believe someone "highly paid" in finance would act so irrelevant--and immature.

Laters folks!

So long--and DO NOT return.
Don't tempt me to chase your ass down.

Someone explain why the big difference between San Diego and Los Angeles???

Someone explain why the big difference between San Diego and Los Angeles???

Differenct point in the cycle?

Interesting how the biggest increases down South took place in the "ghetto" counties - San Bernardino and LA. OK, LA is not **entirely** ghetto, but a large chunk of it is.

Voluntary simplicity is the way to go. If this bubble has a silver lining, it could be that people who get burned have an epiphany and realize they’re happier when they’re not up to their ears in debt trying to keep up with the Jones’.

Lisa, I think you're onto something; I think this is a future trend. After things come crashing down, many people will emerge from the wreckage, brush themselves off, and realize they didn't need all that crap to live happily. A pretty hefty price for a lesson learned, but that's often the best form of education.

Voluntary simplicity? Wouldn’t that be nice? I wouldn’t bet on it, though.

It's an emerging trend that started on the fringe and has picked up steam.
There's a growing list of books on Amazon.com on the subject:
http://tinyurl.com/bj2qc

Here's some contrarian "concrete" evidence for our resident trolls. 1044 Wickham Drive, Moraga, 2820 square foot, 0.27 acres. Moraga is a PRIME East Bay location with top schools and VERY low average active listing inventory. Went on market on June 20th for $1,350,000. Month goes by, no offers. Price reduced to $1,199,000 on July 11th. Almost a month later on August 6, offer accepted at $1,125,000. Escrow closed on September 9th.

So the anecdotes indeed cut both ways.

My friend said that recently much of the open house traffic is from the neighborhood. If this is true, sellers have their fingers on thr triggers already.

Hatred of ANY generation is misplaced.

I agree... but if we have to hate one generation it is more politically correct to target someone who does not come here. ;)

It’s very nice to sit down at that solid wood refectory table for your simple meal of soup and $5 a loaf artisan bread.

Lmao! I'm sure there's some "peasant chíc" element to it, but all the same, finding a purpose outside consumerism is a noble, and dare I say--fulfilling goal. Ok, we're nowhere near poverty, but it's been a refreshing change, all the same.

It’s very nice to sit down at that solid wood refectory table for your simple meal of soup and $5 a loaf artisan bread.

Lmao! I’m sure there’s some “peasant chíc” element to it

This brings to mind the scene from Ben Stiller's Zoolander when Mogatu unveiled his new line of high fashion, based on homeless people: "Derelicte". Maybe life will imitate comedy and this will become the new rage.

Easy... Mr.Right is a friend. :)

Just a thought, but have you considered not reducing yourselves to deleting MP’s comments and simply refusing to give in to the wind up? After all, he does post empirical facts, no?

It is a very delicate balance to maintain... I afraid of losing readers... and I do not like to be in the business of deleting comments at all.

Technically, he posts anecdotes, not empirical facts. But I do not want to go into the discussion of empiricism...