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Future housing trends

By Peter P follow Peter P   2005 Oct 5, 2:09pm 12,076 views   179 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    

What will the popular post-bubble house look like?


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140   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:12am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Damn! I have to go out of town and suddenly I have my own TV show.

141   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:14am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The only TV show I would consider is something like "Tastes of the World".

142   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:14am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

That's what annoys me the most, is that the posts here are for the large part, great. And why would you want to pee in the pool here? What purpose does it serve when just about everyone's opinions are respected? I mean come on, look at the battles between ScottC/RandyH/Allah, not to mention the classic Tsusiat/Stanman battles, epic.

143   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Btw, Peter P

What's a hoss??

144   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:19am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What’s a hoss??

I believe he is a popular western character.

145   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:20am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I believe he is a popular western character.


Is that what Prat meant?

146   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What’s a hoss??

I have no idea...

147   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I guess we'll have to wait for Prat to de-lurk again to tell us.

149   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:25am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Peter P

I have the perfect job for you--- food critic. I guess I'll have to start a paper and hire you. ;)

150   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I have the perfect job for you— food critic. I guess I’ll have to start a paper and hire you.

That sounds fund. :) Free food!

151   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

We'll just have to pry you out of the sushi restaurants once in awhile.

152   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:34am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

We’ll just have to pry you out of the sushi restaurants once in awhile.


BTW, excellent commentary from a Peter S:

153   SQT15   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:40am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Aside from the fact that in cases of “investment” and vacation properties homeowners do not reside in their properties, only a small fraction of homeowners need sell to cause prices to collapse. As home values are a function of comparable sales, even if most ride out the decline, those few who do not, in many cases due to foreclosure or other forced sales, will determine prices for the entire market. It also seems the height of folly to deny that prices that have doubled in less than three years could not drop just as significantly in half the time.

This caught my attention, as well as the case for stagflation.

As Wall Street comes to grips with the realities of higher inflation, and the recessionary implications of the bursting of the real estate bubble, the stagflation scenario is gaining creditability. As all of this unfolds in the ominous month of October, a stock market crash not only seems possible, but a fitting end to Greenspan’s tenure, which may well end on the same note it rang in on. Perhaps the Chairman will not make it out of Dodge after all.

154   Jamie   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 7:01am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"I also have to say, your posts are a hoot. I don’t think you get enough credit."

Aw, shucks. ;-) Thank you. I love your posts. Oh, wait, we'd better be careful or someone is going to accuse us of being the same person. LOL.

For the record: I'm not SactoQT, have never been to Sacramento, but would most certainly like to visit someday. I actually like hot weather.

155   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 7:06am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Someone (HZ maybe) pointed out that Fed leadership changes are often correlated to stock market corrections and recessions.

Regardless, I think that the possibility for stagflation has only been rising over the past year-18 months. I don't see anything that is limiting or precluding a stagflation cycle. Let's all hope this doesn't happen. Stagflation really really really sucks, for just about everybody, RE owners or not.

156   KurtS   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 9:54am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Credit-Suisse...that's not the one just down the street from me? (one hopes)

157   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:53pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I told him that you could rent a room for $500 in a million dollar home. Why would anyone pay $500 for a room in East San jose.

Very true indeed. Looks like the Plan B of many people is not that solid.

158   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 7, 6:54pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What happened to the media thread?

159   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 2:33am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Just FYI ScottC, I'm not an academic and never have been one. I do real-world financial modeling and strategic scenario analysis, which requires that I keep up on a lot of finance and economic theory. The results of my work are heavily tested by real events, and when I'm wrong it costs very real $ (potentially lots of very real $) for the companies I advise. If I were wrong too often, I'd be looking for work. So, maybe you can love me even a little bit more; I live in the same real world you do.

160   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 3:23am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It is now morning, five hours since Peter P’s above post, and still no media thread. I had the laptop set to open at about the 30th post in media thread, and all I got was a sign from Patrick’s saying “search found no thread by that title”….

Strange indeed.

161   SJ_jim   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 3:27am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Iceman, i live in SJ as well (duh) & have recently been thinking about the crime angle too. It's been pretty safe living here for a while ("safest 'big' city", etc.), but tough times can bring tough times...& this city's certainly had it's moments in the past.
Absolutely right about rentals: 16 mos ago I leased a 700 ft^2 standalone apartment/condo with attached 1 car garage for $1000/month (including sat. TV & PG&E). Just last month, the unit next to mine rented out for $900/ it a wash.
Oh, and my bother & 3 of his friends recently rented a 3br/2ba SFR in PRIME Los Gatos...he pays $600/mo for his own room.
I monitor CL rentals, too...there is TON of rental inventory.

162   SJ_jim   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 3:32am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"Strange indeed. "

Hey, that explains why I couldn't find a link I was looking for last night...I knew it was in one of the recent threads but I didn't know which one. Hmmm...the disappearing media thread...looks like the media is more powerful than we thought, lol.

163   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 3:34am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Question: Would future housing trend cover earthqauke possibilities?

We need to look more into quake-resistant structures.

164   Peter P   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 3:34am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I sense a conspiracy in making the media thread vanish! Who hacked into the system?

Darth Toll?

165   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 7:48am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Now Surfer-X thinks MP is really a VP at a big investment bank, and is telling the truth about everyth s/he has.

I find it fascinating that trolls find it necessary to spew shit, like I said prior, the asshole that typically posts this shit has an IP address from Credit Suisse First Boston, and I will send all of his bullshit comments and his IP address to CSFB. This assholes IP comes from UCB. Perhaps a different troll, perhaps the same, I don't fucking care. Seems like an act of desperation on their part as what would happen if I really send their comments to CSFB? Probably nothing they would want to happen. I think CSFB would take it rather seriously and if this person is this offensive online they are more than likely just as offensive in person and have pissed people off at work, and this type of shit might be just enough for his company to show him the door. Sounds like fun, keep posting your shit asshole, I'll keep copying your dribble and forwarding it to your keepers.

166   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 7:50am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Peter P could you kindly delete the comments from IP as the are from the same person and don't belong here. Troll maintainence please.

167   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 8:07am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MP will have got you again b/c 1) there is probably little chance s/he works at CSFB, 2) s/he got you to spend hours and hours of your time obsessing, when s/he hsn’t been on here for months, 3) if by chance s/he does work at CSFB you have to copy the e-mails that s/he wrote from that IP address if it’s going to do any ‘damage’ to him/her b/c how does the corporate admonish an employee if there’s no evidence? Much of the posts s/he posted to you were probably from home, and there’s nothing you can do about it.

desperate and truly pathetic, yes asshole, I've saved the posts and the corresponding CSFB IP addresses, and yes I am going to email them to CSFB.

I am an undergrad student at UCB focusing on real estate. I’ve lurked here for a while, and have posted under many aliases.

A troll, is a troll, is a troll. Exactly why the fuck would you chose to behave in this fashion? I'm curious as it seems like a gigantic waste of time. Wow, thanks for the Karma alert, I'm sure MP will need the same advice, and yes asshole, the same dickhead has posted many many times since he was asked not to. And each time I have saved his dribble, threats and profanity and am going to send it to the entire board of CSFB. Perhaps he/she/it should have thought a bit before spewing his venom online, as should you.

168   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 8:14am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

It’s THAT easy to keep changing aliases.. and that’s my point.

desperate, very very desperate, yes cocksmoker, you can change aliases easily, but what you cannot do is change your IP address, for instance here is the IP you've posted your last 3 troll comments from, and here is the contact information for your host, TechHandle: UCB-NOC-ARIN
TechName: IST Communication and Network Services
TechPhone: +1-510-643-3267

Enjoy your afternoon, one question regarding hygene, you being a troll and all, isn't it a bit hard getting peanut butter out from all that shag carpet?

169   surfer-x   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 8:16am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Perhaps we should save your e-mails and send them along too!

Hmm, doubtful you have admin rights and equally as doubtful charter communications would really give a rats ass, but I am sure CSFB will. Enjoy your afternoon, I'm off to work at Wal-Mart.

170   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 8:38am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        


since i have a UCB VPN (left over from my grad school days): is (haas-wlan-403.AirBears.Berkeley.EDU)
2 open ports: 25 and 110.

This guy is in the Haas building, using the wireless network there. So his IP is dynamically assigned. It's possible he's just using one of the cptrs in the library because the machine's ports are locked down.

My guess is that this guy is a Haas undergrad or more likely full-time mba, and that's why he would pretend to be a CSFB 400K's his life's inspiration--after having just been brutalized as an ibanker lackey intern all summer.

171   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 8:49am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I'm an Ohio State fan, sorry. Gotta be true to my undergrad alma mater.

172   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 9:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Assuming this is all true, 2 things:

1) why are you doing a thesis for a bus undergrad? it's been years since i was an ug, but i don't think they have thesis as a graduation requirement

2) OSU is 3-1, and still ranked above 4-0 Cal. Sometimes it's not your WL record, but how good everyone knows you are

Ken Rosen, eh. I didn't know he taught undergrad courses, but i guess it's possible. I only see him listed as teaching MBA and EWMBA at Haas.

173   Jamie   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 9:57am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"Ok, you guys caught me! I am MP, and am an undergrad at UC Berkeley! I am a business undergrad, with a focus on real estate finance. "

Misrepresenting who you are on the internet is dishonorable, regardless of the purpose. It also erodes the quality of online communities. I don't think the Jerry Springer entertainment factor is even remotely worth the damage it does. Who can believe anything you say? I can't.

174   Jamie   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 10:07am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"As to earthquakes, when pricing insurance, the agent claimed noone ( or few) on the Northcoast carry it. "

Where do you mean by Northcoast? Is earthquake insurance prohibitively expensive?

175   KurtS   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 10:08am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Japan has excellent earthquake modeling and engineering, but if you remember the Kobe quake, it didn’t seem to matter. The city suffered major damage.”

I recall the Kobe earthquake suffered severe liquefaction in areas, which tends to undermine both good and bad engineering. Let's hope we don't see a similar scenario played out in SF Bay.

176   OO   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 10:10am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Come on, guys, we are all adults, and in a hard-to-verify environment like the internet, the prudent thing to do is to assume everyone is lying unless proven otherwise.

So there is no point arguing about anybody's true identity. If you have been around the block long enough, you can tell from someone's words whether he knows what he's talking about or otherwise. Once you find someone who consistently gives out credible input, then you stick to that person for comment. If you suspect someone is lying, just ignore, why waste your own time and emotion getting angry? I believe apart from killing time, we are here to learn, or at least for me, to see if I am missing some angles when I am trying to put together a picture so that I can take according actions to take advantage of that situation.

If you have already established a position thinking that the housing will crash, what you particularly should do is listen more to the opposing argument, not because you want to switch sides, but to understand how the opposing sentiment will affect how things unfold. In doing so, you can also explore weaknesses in your own analysis, so that you get all grounds covered. I don't get angry if people take the opposite side, I will be angry if everyone thinks like me, which means I can't bet against the market and make huge profits.

So relax, sit back. Plus, if you really dislike some of those stupid buyers, you should encourage them to buy more on risker loans, and enjoy the aftermath when he goes belly-up.

177   Randy H   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 10:25am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        


Do you agree with the reduced volatility conclusion? Seems to me the volatility is conserved, just shifted into sectors of the economy like unemployment.

178   SJ_jim   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 11:05am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Micro-volatility would minimize the overall magnitude of over/under-shooting, thereby also reducing the potential financial gain presented by such opportunities.

179   praetorian   ignore (0)   2005 Oct 8, 2:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"What’s a hoss??"

"I have no idea…"

"I guess we’ll have to wait for Prat to de-lurk again to tell us."

A hoss: a stud, The Man, etc. It is the highest form of praise young males from certain regions of northern california can give other males.

Now, I go to gently weep for my Bears, and to softly curse the special teams/tight ends coach for the remainder of the evening.

BTW, this thread is shot. Another?

Also, when did we get MP's IP addresses? I'm missing all the fun. HEAD! PANTS! NOW!


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