patrick.net

"Ok, you guys caught me! I am MP, and am an undergrad at UC Berkeley! I am a business undergrad, with a focus on real estate finance. "

Misrepresenting who you are on the internet is dishonorable, regardless of the purpose. It also erodes the quality of online communities. I don't think the Jerry Springer entertainment factor is even remotely worth the damage it does. Who can believe anything you say? I can't.

"As to earthquakes, when pricing insurance, the agent claimed noone ( or few) on the Northcoast carry it. "

Where do you mean by Northcoast? Is earthquake insurance prohibitively expensive?

Japan has excellent earthquake modeling and engineering, but if you remember the Kobe quake, it didn’t seem to matter. The city suffered major damage.”

I recall the Kobe earthquake suffered severe liquefaction in areas, which tends to undermine both good and bad engineering. Let's hope we don't see a similar scenario played out in SF Bay.

Come on, guys, we are all adults, and in a hard-to-verify environment like the internet, the prudent thing to do is to assume everyone is lying unless proven otherwise.

So there is no point arguing about anybody's true identity. If you have been around the block long enough, you can tell from someone's words whether he knows what he's talking about or otherwise. Once you find someone who consistently gives out credible input, then you stick to that person for comment. If you suspect someone is lying, just ignore, why waste your own time and emotion getting angry? I believe apart from killing time, we are here to learn, or at least for me, to see if I am missing some angles when I am trying to put together a picture so that I can take according actions to take advantage of that situation.

If you have already established a position thinking that the housing will crash, what you particularly should do is listen more to the opposing argument, not because you want to switch sides, but to understand how the opposing sentiment will affect how things unfold. In doing so, you can also explore weaknesses in your own analysis, so that you get all grounds covered. I don't get angry if people take the opposite side, I will be angry if everyone thinks like me, which means I can't bet against the market and make huge profits.

So relax, sit back. Plus, if you really dislike some of those stupid buyers, you should encourage them to buy more on risker loans, and enjoy the aftermath when he goes belly-up.

HZ,

Do you agree with the reduced volatility conclusion? Seems to me the volatility is conserved, just shifted into sectors of the economy like unemployment.

Micro-volatility would minimize the overall magnitude of over/under-shooting, thereby also reducing the potential financial gain presented by such opportunities.

"What’s a hoss??"

"I have no idea…"

"I guess we’ll have to wait for Prat to de-lurk again to tell us."

A hoss: a stud, The Man, etc. It is the highest form of praise young males from certain regions of northern california can give other males.

Now, I go to gently weep for my Bears, and to softly curse the special teams/tight ends coach for the remainder of the evening.

BTW, this thread is shot. Another?

Also, when did we get MP's IP addresses? I'm missing all the fun. HEAD! PANTS! NOW!

Cheers,
prat