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Future housing trends


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2005 Oct 5, 2:09pm   15,017 views  179 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

What will the popular post-bubble house look like?

#housing

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66   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 12:19pm  

Absolutely! Overvalued chunks of carbon…someday Sibera will bring its diamonds to market and the DeBeers price-fixing ends!

Also, diamonds can be economically made (gemesis.com), but making gold probably requires a huge particle accelerator.

Gold is also edible. It looks good on sushi.

67   OO   2005 Oct 6, 12:25pm  

I actually consulted my physics professor friend about gold and diamond because my wife was nagging me about a bigger stone (yuck!).

He said, pal, diamond can already be manufactured fairly easily! Exactly the same thing as what mother nature creates. Gold, forget it, it is an element, we human beings are so far away from manufacturing gold at a cost cheaper than mining. Costwise, it is just impossible to manufacture gold with forseeable technological advances.

Man-made colored diamonds are now artificially marketed at 25% discount from natural ones because DeBeers bought these diamond-manufcaturing technology about 3 years ago. It is just a big pyramid scheme for carbon.

68   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 12:30pm  

What are the uses of diamonds other than cutting diamonds and making doomsday machines for James Bond villans?

69   OO   2005 Oct 6, 12:46pm  

Women seem to have more uses for diamonds than guys, must be good marketing from DeBeers.

70   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 12:54pm  

Women seem to have more uses for diamonds than guys, must be good marketing from DeBeers.

Once they are brainwashed with "diamonds = love = forever", it is over.

71   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 12:55pm  

There are also a lot of people dying in Sierra Leone over diamonds. Once I realized how many people were being killed and maimed over the tiny diamond mines there, I told my husband pearls were looking a whole lot better.

72   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 12:59pm  

I told my husband pearls were looking a whole lot better.

At worst, only oysters are harmed.

73   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 1:00pm  

At worst, only oysters are harmed.

Well, if you're going to eat them anyway....

74   Jamie   2005 Oct 6, 1:01pm  

"There are also a lot of people dying in Sierra Leone over diamonds"

Also South Africa, The Ivory Coast, and probably other African countries I don't know about.

Those diamond commercials and ads are very effective, it's true.

75   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:04pm  

Well, if you’re going to eat them anyway….

I love seafood, but oyster is one of the few things that I do not eat. I had only two oysters in my whole life.

76   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 1:04pm  

Those diamond commercials and ads are very effective, it’s true.

They really are. Like Peter P said, once you equate diamonds with love, it's all over. I know a lot of women who insist on having bigger diamond rings at certain anniversaries, and wouldn't think of having had a smaller diamond than a full carat when engaged. What a waste of money.

77   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:05pm  

Those diamond commercials and ads are very effective, it’s true.

I consider diamond as a make-believe currency, just a litter worse than devalued dollar.

78   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 1:05pm  

I think oysters are nasty, but some people like them. The idea of raw shellfish is also too scary to contemplate.

79   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:08pm  

I know a lot of women who insist on having bigger diamond rings at certain anniversaries, and wouldn’t think of having had a smaller diamond than a full carat when engaged.

The most successful ad campaign in human history. A "marriage tax" indeed.

80   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:10pm  

I think oysters are nasty, but some people like them. The idea of raw shellfish is also too scary to contemplate.

I do like raw shrimps, lobsters, and clams. I do not like raw vegetables though.

81   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 1:12pm  

Raw shrimp and lobster?? I've never heard of eating them uncooked. Now I like chilled shrimp, but uncooked?

82   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:12pm  

Just about the only way to sell a new build, I’d imagine, when competing existing homes are dirt cheap.

I afraid they will have to further lower the construction costs. This means worse quality.

I think dirt homes will be a luxury. ;)

83   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:14pm  

Raw shrimp and lobster?? I’ve never heard of eating them uncooked. Now I like chilled shrimp, but uncooked?

Yes. In sushi or sashimi. They taste very good.

I love chilled, cooked shrimps though. Best sauce for seafood: mayo!

84   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 1:16pm  

I've had sashimi, but never heard of raw shrimp. Mayo on seafood! Maybe if you're Irish. ;)

85   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:19pm  

I’ve had sashimi, but never heard of raw shrimp. Mayo on seafood! Maybe if you’re Irish.

Try Amaebi sushi next time and see if you like it. Raw scallop sushi is also good.

Mayo is really good with:

chilled crab
chilled lobster
chilled shrimps
grilled white fish

Especially garlic mayo. Okay I am really hungry now.

86   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:20pm  

Sorry guys, I am turning any discussion into food discussion.

87   Jamie   2005 Oct 6, 1:31pm  

Oysters are good when fried with a thick, crunchy crust on the outside to combat the slime factor. The crust creates a nice texture so that the flavor of the oyster--which is actually quite good--can be enjoyed. At least, that's my theory. But I'm from the South, where everything is considered better fried.

And to make this related to housing...um...ummm....

88   Jamie   2005 Oct 6, 1:33pm  

Jack, the elevators probably take them up to the second floor where their home gym is located, in which they have a stair climbing machine.

89   quesera   2005 Oct 6, 2:44pm  

(the much longer, now excised, version of this post fanned too many embers.)

@Randy H: you're getting a lot of undeserved flak for your precise explanations. Just wanted to let you know that the subtlety of your points is understood and appreciated.

90   surfer-x   2005 Oct 6, 2:46pm  

Ha Ha, you Sir are way too kind :) ;)

91   praetorian   2005 Oct 6, 2:47pm  

_lurking device OFF_

Four more For Sale signs along Alpine Road off of 280 this week.

Peter is a hoss.

cheers,
prat

_lurking device ON_

92   praetorian   2005 Oct 6, 2:59pm  

They reported a drop in average price from August 2005 to August 2004.

Peter is a *F**KING* HOSS.

cheers,
prat

93   Randy H   2005 Oct 6, 2:59pm  

Thanks for clearing things up for me ScottC. I'll try to read a book about the real world sometime so I can get a clue, but first I'll have to repent for wasting the last 22 years of my life dwelling in the bizzaro world. But not until first I sleep, for I am so tired after having just arrived in Manhattan to advise yet another unwitting client who is so unware that my knowledge is but worth not one wit. Oh, why has life forsaken me so.

...now, where in the hell was that $52 subpar sashimi joint? Somewhere on 46th, if I remember correctly...

94   quesera   2005 Oct 6, 3:06pm  

I think we're all dreaming to hope that the housing crash will create or accelerate any meaningful new housing trends. Unless "reversion" counts as a trend. Reversion to somewhat more modest accomodations, but nothing groundbreaking (NPI).

I wish it would, but the construction industry is incredibly slow to adopt new methods and technologies. I do think the conspicuous consumption crowd will take a serious hit, and it will be "trendy" (read: "necessary") again to live within one's means. But I think for most builders, that will translate into a regression in size, finish, and appliances.

But the cool kids will be doing more with less, and some of the links above point out a few different paths. Five years from now will be a great time to have a house built, if you are bored with typical construction but lack the skills to do it yourself. You'll still have to do lots of research.

I'm extremely interested to see what becomes of NOLA. With so much of the stock destroyed, but sub-replacement cost insurance settlements (or zero insurance plus the inevitable federal assistance), it's a perfect opportunity for groups of smart creative people to make an impact. If I had a contractor's license, I would be moving there right now.

95   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 6, 3:09pm  

Gold? Gold is great. As surfer-x (?) pointed out, it is a noble metal. It is so noble, it has the highest laser damage threshold of all metals, noble or not. So when everyone starts buying lasers and blows things up (due to negative home equity), gold is most likely to survive...it will most definitely be PRIME.

Someone asked what diamonds are good for (other than hearing the word "yes"). Besides playing records (errr...), they're used on saws for dicing processed wafers on silicon substrates. Your PC has many many chips that were separated from their identical brothers by a diamond saw.

Oysters are good with: tobasco sauce, chopped green onions, cheddar cheese, and bacon bits...all cooked on BBQ. ("Oh, that was good...what? there was an oyster in there?).

ScottC, the cow analogy was great, but why disturb such a perfectly off-topic discussion?

News, Sandicor must have ran the #'s 10 times to convince themselves, hence the delay.

Oh, and why does Michael Jackson like 28 year olds?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
'cause there're 20 of them. lol.

96   praetorian   2005 Oct 6, 3:13pm  

I’ll try to read a book about the real world sometime so I can get a clue

Oh, would you two shut up and KISS ALREADY?

Don't you two see that you're in love with each other? I mean, why can't you face that already? You're running around out there looking for something that's not even there, when everything that you dream of is right here, right here in front of you.

Now why can't you admit that?

By the way, when you see MP give him these, these'll work.

Cheers,
prat

97   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 6, 3:30pm  

News,
From your link, I get a 7% YOY drop in average price. That seems significant. Especially considering these are August's closed sales. So, the properties were under contract in, what, June & July I suppose?

Oh, and in case you didn't know, the next hot RE market is Yazoo City, Mississippi:
http://www.craigslist.org/sby/rfs/102372866.html

(***not investment advice***)

That ad is posted in So.SFBA CL section. lol.

98   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 6, 4:13pm  

News, what part of bay area are you in?
I've been tracking so. bay a bit...inventory is blipping, and I see lots of denial-type 1-3% price reductions...feel like I'm "watching paint dry", as they say. In short, nothing earth-shattering so far, but the paint does seem to be getting a little tacky.

By the way I was thinking about something earlier today:
The 1987 crash was black monday, right? What precipated, or catalyzed, this drop? Was there any significant event(s) over the weekend? I don't remember, having been an oblivious teenager at the time. Perhaps there was a week's worth of bad econ indicators that were digested over the weekend? Just curious if anyone has a take on this. And have any other stock market "crashes" occurred on a monday?

99   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 4:26pm  

The 1987 crash was black monday, right? What precipated, or catalyzed, this drop?

I thought it was program trading, "portfolio protection", delta hedging stuff. It happened spontaneously.

100   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 4:30pm  

How do you go from diamond mine slaves to food in one seamless seguay?

But I thought everyone has to eat something...

Oh, now I remember...

diamond -> pearl -> oyster -> seafood -> sushi

101   Zephyr   2005 Oct 6, 4:31pm  

As I recall, the 1987 crash on Monday followed a significant decline on Friday. Stocks had been slipping since August of 1987.

In 1929. The same pattern occurred with stocks slipping since August with a major one-day collapse on a Tuesday.

102   Zephyr   2005 Oct 6, 4:42pm  

Five of the ten worst single-day declines have occurred in the month of October. October 19, 1987 was the largest single-day decline of the DJIA in history.

Black Tuesday October 29, 1929 was the third worst day in history. Monday October 28, 1929 was actually a worse decline, and is the second worst day ever for the Dow.

103   SJ_jim   2005 Oct 6, 4:49pm  

Thanks for thoughts, Peter P & Zeph.
Also, found this from a 1988 "psychology today" article:
"After the October crash, Yale University economist Robert Shiller sent questionaires to 2,000 individual investors-savvy, active traders-to probe their thoughts and feelings during that tumultuous period. Shiller asked the investors to rate the importance of several events that occurred during the previous week, events later suggested by the press as having precipitated the crash: Chemical Bank's raising its prime rate, the announcement of trade deficit figures and the U.S. attack on an Iranian off station.

For the nearly 1,000 investors who responded, however, the crucial event was news concerning the market itself: some sharp drops during the preceding week and a precipitous 200-point drop on the morning of the 19th. In other words, price movements in the market were triggered chiefly by other price movements in the market.

This led to a market panic that fed on itself, the way a few people running for a theater exit and yelling, "Fire!" can stampede a whole crowd."

Shiller's been around a while, huh?
Runaway spontaneity is fascinating (well, unless it makes you miserable, i guess).

104   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 4:49pm  

October is cursed. Must be the stars.

105   quesera   2005 Oct 6, 5:43pm  

SJ_Jim: In other words, price movements in the market were triggered chiefly by other price movements in the market.

The exchanges (NYSE at least) created automatic suspension of trading rules in the wake of the 1987 crash to prevent a reoccurrence of this phenomenon.. I believe the trigger was a raw point decline originally, but was later (in the dot-com runup) changed to a percentage decline (10%?).

I don't know whether trading has ever been suspended by these rules.. A 10% single-day decline would be genuine drama.

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