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Future housing trends


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2005 Oct 5, 2:09pm   14,727 views  179 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

What will the popular post-bubble house look like?

#housing

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41   Randy H   2005 Oct 6, 6:07am  

If we run out of black gold, it will be the opposite…Noone will live in the city. You cant grow food…We will look like Cuba, where they grow their
food in their back yard.

The great cities arose long before industrialization and the oil-energy economy. There were very large cities in antiquity. I suspect cities will find a way to survive well beyond oil and steel.

42   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 6:09am  

High-speed rail in California will be no more successful than light rail in the silly valley.

43   Randy H   2005 Oct 6, 6:30am  

allah,

Of course not, you just rationilzed the rock story, making it reasonably believable it could be more valuable to willing buyers. By applying unique attributes to any arbitrary item you could plausibly raise its value to potential buyers. I realize this is circular, which is what most people have an intuitive problem with, but I assure you that dropping either the rationality or non-coercive requisites render market theory entirely useless.

44   Randy H   2005 Oct 6, 6:38am  

...

easily categorized as irrational: you go to a "rock auction" and buy a rock for $1M not knowing if it does or does not have any special features of value. No one has told you the rock might be special. You have no secret information about the rock giving you an edge. Of course, you never know, anything is possible...

very likely rational: you go to a "rock auction" and buy a rock which you and other buyers believe has special features making it valuable to you and at least some others.

arguably rational: you go to a "rock acution" and bid on a rock which you know MIGHT have a chance of being special; you're not absolutely sure if it's a fake or geniune special rock, but you determine that the caluclated risk is reasonable because of the potential value of the rock if it is authentic. You are also rational to assume that other buyers have made the same or similar conclusions about the rock.

45   Randy H   2005 Oct 6, 6:54am  

So if I acquiesce to what you're driving at, we can stop all this. I still maintain that buyer-seller price arguments are the equivalent of insisting that "all mathematics can be explained by addition". Although the statement is not untrue, it is not very useful either.

46   surfer-x   2005 Oct 6, 7:11am  

Randy H, Allah, you two should try out for an obscure british comedy ;) Man your posts are so far over my head I need air traffic control to understand them.

47   Jamie   2005 Oct 6, 7:25am  

"The Now House is something we’ve been thinking seriously about. On a small plot of land, but large enough to grow some fruit and vegtables.I do my"

Moonvalley, have you visited the Now House? I am curious to know what the quality is like inside. I too love the design and the other designs at http://www.cleverhomes.net and would love to find a nice little plot of land to have one built on.

Does anyone know how land prices behave during real estate corrections? Do they mirror regular real estate prices? I was just checking and found what seemed to me to be relatively affordable lots (around 300K) in Santa Clara and Marin County, but I'm not knowledgable enough to know what the catch is...toxic waste on site? (The ones I'm looking at have utilities present and are zoned residential.)

48   Jamie   2005 Oct 6, 7:27am  

Similar to the dome houses, check out these houses made of dirt:

http://www.calearth.org

This place is not far from where I live. I'll have to check it out some time in person.

49   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 7:34am  

My guess is that the implied land price is the sale price of a house minus its replacement cost. Since the construction costs is realitvely constant, I would think that loand prices are much more volatile?

50   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 7:37am  

If the market crashes badly I assume one can buy at a price that is below replacement cost.

51   Jamie   2005 Oct 6, 7:39am  

"check out these houses made of dirt

Nice…How do they keep them so clean? "

LOL. I think it's kind of like making a big clay pot that you can live in--pottery making on a grand scale. :-)

52   surfer-x   2005 Oct 6, 8:13am  

Republic of California

Actually it's the California Republic.

53   surfer-x   2005 Oct 6, 8:16am  

it’s a chunk of metal with no inherent value to me, and while I recognize that it has been highly prized for thousands of years by many civilizations, there’s no fundamental reason why it has to be so.

Actually gold does have intrinsic value, it is unique in the world of metals, first of all it is the only metal that exists in nature in its pure state, all others are either oxides or sulfides. Second, golds electronic structure is unique among metals, it is amazingly mallible and perfectly noble. And it is rare. Gold's value can be thought of in the amount of human toil it takes to get a chunk of it. This differs from diamonds which are less rare than high purity quartz, they are just controlled by the DeBeers family. They are a sham, where as gold is the real deal.

54   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 8:18am  

Gold’s value can be thought of in the amount of human toil it takes to get a chunk of it.

I heard that many fishermen/divers died harvesting king crabs and abalone. Edible investments with intrisic values!

55   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 8:20am  

I am anti-diamonds. People are just brain-washed into buying diamond engagement rings. Thank God my wife is practical.

56   surfer-x   2005 Oct 6, 8:21am  

I am pro-emeralds.

57   surfer-x   2005 Oct 6, 8:23am  

Allah, welcome aboard! Nice rant, could use a tab bit more anger and outrage in my humble opinion though. But nice work.

58   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 8:24am  

Thank God my wife is practical.

BTW, she would rather have a stash of devalued dollar than a meaningless diamond.

59   surfer-x   2005 Oct 6, 9:16am  

Does the 5-second rule work in dirt house? Should people who live in dirt houses throw glass?

60   surfer-x   2005 Oct 6, 9:19am  

Hmmm, I took a look on realtor.com and it seems they are up to some pretty good monkey business, there are a ton of properties that are listed several times, each with a slightly different description. Why would they want to do that?

61   Jamie   2005 Oct 6, 10:20am  

Surfer-X, I've noticed that too about double listings of the same property. I'm not sure what the deal is with that.

My personal favorite realtor flim-flam technique on realtor.com is when they stretch the photo horizontally to make it look like a bigger house or room, LOL. Like, ooh, look at that nice wide house with the really big doors and windows...but hmm, is that a Honda Civic limousine out front on the curb?

62   Jamie   2005 Oct 6, 10:23am  

"Does the 5-second rule work in dirt house? Should people who live in dirt houses throw glass?"

No, but in a dirt house, heavy rains mean an opportunity for extensive remodeling.

63   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 10:32am  

My personal favorite realtor flim-flam technique on realtor.com is when they stretch the photo horizontally to make it look like a bigger house or room, LOL.

HAHAHAHA

64   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 10:33am  

Or they should stretch it vertically and say "high ceiling". Perfect for stretched buyers!

65   KurtS   2005 Oct 6, 12:15pm  

Other notables of gold: high conductivity, alloys easily with other precious metals, completely harmless to the human body, almost 100% non-reactive to other elements, etc. Of course, there's a few other native metals, such as copper, silver, mercury.

This differs from diamonds which are less rare than high purity quartz, they are just controlled by the DeBeers family. They are a sham, where as gold is the real deal.

Absolutely! Overvalued chunks of carbon...someday Sibera will bring its diamonds to market and the DeBeers price-fixing ends!

66   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 12:19pm  

Absolutely! Overvalued chunks of carbon…someday Sibera will bring its diamonds to market and the DeBeers price-fixing ends!

Also, diamonds can be economically made (gemesis.com), but making gold probably requires a huge particle accelerator.

Gold is also edible. It looks good on sushi.

67   OO   2005 Oct 6, 12:25pm  

I actually consulted my physics professor friend about gold and diamond because my wife was nagging me about a bigger stone (yuck!).

He said, pal, diamond can already be manufactured fairly easily! Exactly the same thing as what mother nature creates. Gold, forget it, it is an element, we human beings are so far away from manufacturing gold at a cost cheaper than mining. Costwise, it is just impossible to manufacture gold with forseeable technological advances.

Man-made colored diamonds are now artificially marketed at 25% discount from natural ones because DeBeers bought these diamond-manufcaturing technology about 3 years ago. It is just a big pyramid scheme for carbon.

68   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 12:30pm  

What are the uses of diamonds other than cutting diamonds and making doomsday machines for James Bond villans?

69   OO   2005 Oct 6, 12:46pm  

Women seem to have more uses for diamonds than guys, must be good marketing from DeBeers.

70   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 12:54pm  

Women seem to have more uses for diamonds than guys, must be good marketing from DeBeers.

Once they are brainwashed with "diamonds = love = forever", it is over.

71   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 12:55pm  

There are also a lot of people dying in Sierra Leone over diamonds. Once I realized how many people were being killed and maimed over the tiny diamond mines there, I told my husband pearls were looking a whole lot better.

72   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 12:59pm  

I told my husband pearls were looking a whole lot better.

At worst, only oysters are harmed.

73   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 1:00pm  

At worst, only oysters are harmed.

Well, if you're going to eat them anyway....

74   Jamie   2005 Oct 6, 1:01pm  

"There are also a lot of people dying in Sierra Leone over diamonds"

Also South Africa, The Ivory Coast, and probably other African countries I don't know about.

Those diamond commercials and ads are very effective, it's true.

75   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:04pm  

Well, if you’re going to eat them anyway….

I love seafood, but oyster is one of the few things that I do not eat. I had only two oysters in my whole life.

76   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 1:04pm  

Those diamond commercials and ads are very effective, it’s true.

They really are. Like Peter P said, once you equate diamonds with love, it's all over. I know a lot of women who insist on having bigger diamond rings at certain anniversaries, and wouldn't think of having had a smaller diamond than a full carat when engaged. What a waste of money.

77   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:05pm  

Those diamond commercials and ads are very effective, it’s true.

I consider diamond as a make-believe currency, just a litter worse than devalued dollar.

78   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 1:05pm  

I think oysters are nasty, but some people like them. The idea of raw shellfish is also too scary to contemplate.

79   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:08pm  

I know a lot of women who insist on having bigger diamond rings at certain anniversaries, and wouldn’t think of having had a smaller diamond than a full carat when engaged.

The most successful ad campaign in human history. A "marriage tax" indeed.

80   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 1:10pm  

I think oysters are nasty, but some people like them. The idea of raw shellfish is also too scary to contemplate.

I do like raw shrimps, lobsters, and clams. I do not like raw vegetables though.

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