patrick.net

I don't know how much my views have changed, but I do feel better informed since there are plenty of STRONGLY opinionated, argumentative people around here.

American in Japan says

but anythong else?

No, not any thong else that I can think of. Still too tight in the crotch for me.

Yes. When I started reading this site in oh.... 2005 I think? I was still voting Republican and calling myself Libertarian. I wouldn't attribute this solely to Patrick.net however taking part in some very good arguments here was a factor.

It's interesting to look at the site in times past, even before I started reading it Patrick was calling the bubble. Here's the oldest page I see in Wayback Machine:

http://web.archive.org/web/20030804110639/http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

My view has changed. Four days ago I viewed Patrick.net from inside my luxury penthouse suite in Hong Kong. Today I view the site from my chateau in Monaco. Yes, when I'm slumming it I feel like conversing with the underclass on Patrick.net.

I stumbled upon this site while attempting to indulge myself in some Internet acquired companionship. I was attempting to navigate to PaddyGirls dot com after visiting NubianQueens dot com.

If you've never taken part in a Mint N Chip Milkshake, you are truely missing out on heaven.

Let's see, because of the Forums I changed my views on Wikipedia.

The Wayback Machine is pretty cool though:

Grab some popcorn and sit back, because you're about to witness an epic disaster up close.

http://web.archive.org/web/20030804110639/http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
Nice.

Vicente says

calling myself Libertarian

This is the best discussion of libertarianism I've seen:

http:/s.randi.org/showthread.php?t=136113

Wow, pretty cool to see the original version of the crash page. I was wrong in predicting this would all be over by 2006.

shrekgrinch says

I am guessing I have to make sure I am not at work when I Google that, correct?

I find no salacious "mint n chip" references on urbandictionary or the usual sites that for instance I'd go to get educated on certain matters.

Virgin territory for someone to plant a flag.

rando says in 2003:

What should you do?

If you own, SELL NOW while you still can.
If you rent, DO NOT BUY until the crash is clearly over, probably 2006.
Grab some popcorn and sit back, because you're about to witness an epic disaster up close.

From the 2003 vantage point, you could not perceive the further heights of financial insanity we would climb before it burst. I don't think anybody STILL has a clear picture of all the crazy fraud going on.

shrekgrinch says

Huntington Moneyworth III, Esq says

If you've never taken part in a Mint N Chip Milkshake, you are truely missing out on heaven.

I thought I was was pretty worldly on that subject...but Mint N Chip Milkshake is a new one for me.

I am guessing I have to make sure I am not at work when I Google that, correct?

Grandson, you are but a babe when it comes to the delicate and time tested art of prostitution. You have good instincts though: When you are feeling particularly randy, ask your lady-of-the-night to give you a Google. And don't do it at work unless you are the boss.

corntrollio says

This is the best discussion of libertarianism I've seen:

http:/s.randi.org/showthread.php?t=136113

I only read the first page, but felt they were largely missing the mark the whole time.

The criticisms are dead on when I look back now, it's the Gospel of Selfishness. People who are predisposed to this, latch onto it as a framework that rationalizes their disposition and don't let go. It is preached by those who delude themselves they are the Chosen Ones who will naturally come out on top when society is shaken up.

Vicente says

It is preached by those who delude themselves they are the Chosen Ones who will naturally come out on top when society is shaken up.

Exactly. "If only we believed in libertarianism, I'd be a feudal lord because I am such a bad ass." They think that they are the people Ayn Rand was talking about dragging the rest of us peasants on their backs.

It's nonsense really -- most of the people I know who are self-described libertarians don't do anything particularly important or noble and certainly aren't at the upper echelons of what they do. Yet, somehow if the government got off their back, they'd magically be at the top of their game.

Certainly these is a lot to learn on Patrick.net. I am rethinking my view on the Fed.

American in Japan says

I am rethinking my view on the Fed.

What was your original position and what is your position now?

I think there is a lot to learn from many of the commenters on Patrick.net. The problem is that there are some people who provide negative knowledge.

More on the Fed later.

@corntrollio

Although, I was aware of the tracking error with the inverse market ETFs, your comments encouraged me to do an analysis of how great the this error is over time– (SH), etc. It was more than I had thought, so thanks.

I havent changed my mind about any particular topic on patrick.net. However, reading sites like Patrick.net and others that offer messages counter to the MSM has changed my views about many a thing.

Having an underwater house has done more to change my views of home ownership than anything else. It was searching for an understanding of housing markets that led to many other sites, including this one.

American in Japan says

your comments encouraged me to do an analysis of how great the this error is over time– (SH), etc. It was more than I had thought, so thanks.

Happy that I could help out. As I mentioned, SH is one of the best for tracking error/volatility drag. The "ultra" (2X or 3X) funds are far far worse on these metrics, and typically don't make sense for anything other than very short-term holds.

etc. because of reading anything on Patrick.net? The obvious one has been to wait on buying a home (especially in 2005-09...or beyond)... but anything else?

I had a bandmate that bought in 1999 a few years before the even the start of the incline to get to the bubble. But by 2004 he felt he was entitled to his 300K profit he was already sitting on, since he bought the house for 180K and by then his tax appraisal was 480K.

And could not understand how the bubble market was not sustainable. We would argue and debate for hours. I told him that we finally reach a tipping point where no more houses could be flipped(I didn't even know of this site back then or to call it a bubble), that those holding these 400 and 500K mortgages would all start going under, when they couldn't flip their houses. I didn't know when, but my gut felling said when the average houses(in my town any way) are going for 400K and 500K it would all start going south. Which that was in 2006-2007.

I told him that the housing prices would collapse over night. I expected to buy a house with a year of said event.

He told me, "Our Government would never let that happen" this was 2004. I thought that was dumbest thing anyone could ever say in a conversation about houses and equity.

He ended up moving in 2008 and had to sell quick. He was bent out of shape that he got 325K, so much so after he sold his house and moved away. He's never talked to me since.

Come to think of it, what a prick.

Real Estate is no longer 'polite conversation'.

I stopped talking about it at work when the crash started (2007). Because people think I'm a prick for 'being right'.

You wont have many friends if you go around truth telling that there is no after life, economony is fake, higher education is a ponzi for half of the graduates, most food/vitamin supplements are BS, etc and on and on.

Bernie Madoff - now he had a lot of friends! he is the type of socio path that excels in America - telling people what they want to hear while reaching into thier wallet when he hugs them at thier parents funeral. Very Common type of dude (and they are loved!).

This forum is great for truth telling! Non PC views cannot be discussed in public anymore easily.

PockyClipsNow says

I stopped talking about it at work when the crash started (2007). Because people think I'm a prick for 'being right'

I don't "being right" is why people think you're a prick...

tatupu70 says

PockyClipsNow says

I stopped talking about it at work when the crash started (2007). Because people think I'm a prick for 'being right'

I don't "being right" is why people think you're a prick...

haha good one. And yet I dont care!

I wouldn't attribute my change of opinion or even that it was changed to just this site. There were 100's of bubble blogs- the vast percentage of them on the bubble coasts. What helped me was when wayyyy back in say- 2003-2004 I started making enough money and then actually started looking at buying a house in the Bay Area and coming away with a "Like WTF?!" after seeing the prices I wondered if there was anyone left that wasn't insane who wasn't buying these houses. Sites like these and others merely confirmed that indeed there are a LOT of people who are of the same general opinion- even people who make enough to actually buy- whom all feel that real estate- particularly in still bubble areas- is overpriced.

In many ways I feel that this and other sites are basically a way for people to vent their frustrations because it is indeed frustrating to constantly see starter homes with 500k asking prices in areas where the median income is too low to support those prices. Its aggravating to see that there are still a seemingly inexhaustible supply of suckers eager, willing, and happy to shell out as much money as they can possibly scrape together to squeeze into a house- any house- because they are wired to still believe in the "American Dream" or whatever nonsense. So to sites like these we come. To vent about it.

If anything sites like these have helped reinforce my feelings. I've even gone as far as to even question some of my earlier thoughts, like moving to Austin or Raleigh which for all practical purposes are just bubble cities where people from bigger bubble cities move to. I've also increasingly put more emphasis on retirement savings and less and less on buying a house. I've also become more and more comfortable with the idea of renting. The house we rent is nice and does the same job. We might not own it but we've lived in it for over 8 years so we might as well own it.

When I started reading these sites I was a young-un... In my mid 20's. Now I'm in my mid 30's. A lot has changed since then.

wow we are all getting old watching this bubble inflate/deflate aren't we?

5 years of price declines and no bottom in sight? it looks that way sometimes.

Yeah. Exactly. Truth be known perhaps the bubble was a good thing. Prior to me noticing it I was not the best with money. Afterward I began saving a lot of cash because I figured when the bubble crashed I'd buy something. 6-7 years later I'm hesitant to do that because saving money is hard work and buying houses with it at this point seems dumb. But indeed- I'm already well into a career that had barely started when the bubble was underway.