patrick.net

FortWayne says

I just saw one of their commercials yesterday.

I saw them hocking SS as a damn fine companion to your Koolaide. Lipton, and Countrytime powder drink mix.

From John C. Bogle, Clash of the Cultures, 10 Rules of Investing:

#5. Forget the needle, buy the haystack. Buy the whole market and you can eliminate stock risk, style risk, and manager risk. Your odds of finding the next Apple (AAPL) are low.

From Larry Swedroe, The Quest for Alpha, Rules for Prudent Investing:
#17. Owning individual stocks and sector funds is more akin to speculating, not investing. The market compensates investors for risks that cannot be diversified away, like the risk of investing in stocks versus bonds. Investors shouldn't expect compensation for diversifiable risk--the unique risks related to owning one stock, or sector, or country fund. Prudent investors only accept risk for which they are compensated with higher expected returns....

#19. Before acting on seemingly valuable information, ask yourself why you believe that information is not already incorporated into prices. Only incremental insight has value. Capturing incremental insight is difficult because there are so many smart, highly motivated analysts doing the same research. If you hear recommendations on CNBC or from your broker or read them in Barron's, the market already knows the information it is based on. It has no value.

MsBennet says

From John C. Bogle, Clash of the Cultures, 10 Rules of Investing:

#5. Forget the needle, buy the haystack. Buy the whole market and you can eliminate stock risk, style risk, and manager risk. Your odds of finding the next Apple (AAPL) are low.

MsBennet, I agree that diversification is important. You CAN diversify with 15-25 carefully selected dividend growth stocks. It's very easy. However, when I read Bogle and the rants of his minions, I kinda laugh. I don't want to 'buy the haystack' because it is full of mediocre/crappy companies. And, i certainly don't to gamble to find another Apple. I don't diversify into duds. You will find it hard to find ANY of the talking heads on TV discuss individual investors managing their own portfolio of dividend growth stocks. You know why? Because Bogle, Goldman Sachs and all the other 'experts' won't make a dime off of you.....

I might have bought SODA 18 months ago w/a small chunk w/in the 25-30% of my portfolio that I set aside for growth companies. But I have close to 9% of my portfolio invested in KO. It pays a buck twelve in dividends per share. But KO also increases its dividends 10% per year like clock work. So the dividend now will double in about 7 years to $2.24, and i wouldn't have done a thing, but buy more shares w/ my dividends. This investment will EASILY outpace inflation too. Get yerself 12-24 more of these companies and you will start growing your own 'Money Tree'. If you are a good saver, your monthy dividend income stream will match and exceed your monthly expenses.

The link below is a good distilled 'manifesto' of a Dividend Growth Investor....

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2013/07/frequently-asked-questions-faq-about.html

DOn't drink soda, that's bad for you. Drink beer!

Quigley says

DOn't drink soda, that's bad for you. Drink beer!

Preferably homebrew.

AverageBear says

The link below is a good distilled 'manifesto' of a Dividend Growth Investor....

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2013/07/frequently-asked-questions-faq-about.html

Thanks for the tips and the link. But the Dividend Growth Investor says you need to spend minimum 10 hours a week researching. Well, I have neither the desire nor the patience, nor the intelligence to do that. I will stick with my way. There is enough proof out there to conclude that professional managers of funds rarely do better than index funds. But if you think you can do better, go for it. I do like the idea of dividend funds, though.

CaptainShuddup says

FortWayne says

I just saw one of their commercials yesterday.

I saw them hocking SS as a damn fine companion to your Koolaide. Lipton, and Countrytime powder drink mix.

They might be solid, I'll have to run some numbers to see if they are within the value range. My biggest problem with them is that I don't know anyone (other than Patrick) who buys that stuff.

If making soda at home becomes a fad though... they'll make a lot of money.

Quigley says

DOn't drink soda, that's bad for you. Drink beer!

DOn't drink beer, that's bad for you. Drink Whisky!

leo707 says

Quigley says

DOn't drink soda, that's bad for you. Drink beer!

DOn't drink beer, that's bad for you. Drink Whisky!

Whiskey IS (distilled) beer.

http://www.whiskyadvocate.com/whisky_resources.asp

AverageBear says

ZZ, i picked up 25 shares today at around $40 a share. The P/E is a tad over 20x, but when you buy in w/ such a small chunk of money ($1000), it's not the end of the world. My 401K is a little light on KO and JNJ(heavy w/ INTC, PM, MCD) , so when I saw that the earnings was a little disappointing this morning, I picked up a small amount at 40...

Would you still by KO today at ~37/share?

ahem, I've analyzed the markets and I think golf club manufacturers are a good investment. big market as far as I can tell and I have degree in that.

komputodo says

Does making or losing money in any way relate to stock prices?

Long term... yes.

New Renter says

leo707 says

Quigley says

DOn't drink soda, that's bad for you. Drink beer!

DOn't drink beer, that's bad for you. Drink Whisky!

Whiskey IS (distilled) beer.

http://www.whiskyadvocate.com/whisky_resources.asp

Yes! ...And the distillation turns it into a healthy drink.

leo707 says

New Renter says

leo707 says

Quigley says

DOn't drink soda, that's bad for you. Drink beer!

DOn't drink beer, that's bad for you. Drink Whisky!

Whiskey IS (distilled) beer.

http://www.whiskyadvocate.com/whisky_resources.asp

Yes! ...And the distillation turns it into a healthy drink.

Healthy as an antiseptic maybe.

New Renter says

leo707 says

New Renter says

leo707 says

Quigley says

DOn't drink soda, that's bad for you. Drink beer!

DOn't drink beer, that's bad for you. Drink Whisky!

Whiskey IS (distilled) beer.

http://www.whiskyadvocate.com/whisky_resources.asp

Yes! ...And the distillation turns it into a healthy drink.

Healthy as an antiseptic maybe.

But, oh so much more delicious, and as a bonus a strong cask strength whisky can double as an antiseptic!

All kidding aside, if you look up just about any list of "healthy" alcohols whisky will be right up near the top, but never beer :( -- well depending on the criteria of the list sometimes Guinness is an exception.

Whether straight, over ice, or with a little water (flat or soda) whisky is a low calorie, zero carb, and zero gluten (for those that care about that) drink.

leo707 says

Whether straight, over ice, or with a little water (flat or soda) whisky is a low calorie, zero carb, and zero gluten (for those that care about that) drink.

I'll remember that next time I pour myself a nice shot of Bulleit Rye

New Renter says

leo707 says

Whether straight, over ice, or with a little water (flat or soda) whisky is a low calorie, zero carb, and zero gluten (for those that care about that) drink.

I'll remember that next time I pour myself a nice shot of Bulleit Rye

I am not a fan of the Bulleit Rye, but if you like a good rye you should consider WhistlePig it is the best rye I have ever tasted, and at 100proof it comes close to antiseptic alcohol levels. ;)

With all this talk about health I must admit that *ah-hem* I do occasionally enjoy a Bulleit and coke. The 10 year Bulleit is very drinkable straight -- sans unhealthy coke.

leo707 says

I am not a fan of the Bulleit Rye, but if you like a good rye you should consider WhistlePig it is the best rye I have ever tasted, and at 100proof it comes close to antiseptic alcohol levels. ;)

$70/bottle is well over my budget but maybe for a special occasion.

I'll take a 120 IPA from Dogfish Head Brewery in Rehoboth Beach, DE

freak80 says

I'll take a 120 IPA from Dogfish Head Brewery in Rehoboth Beach, DE

Just had an Olde School Barleywine the other night - NICE!

Is SODA a buy now that it's down to ~$53.50

JodyChunder says

What am I missing?

it’s an isreali company.

Who's gonna pay the dentist bills?

I'm a little worried that the paintball CO2 tanks are not really food items. Could they have some contaminant in them?

What about getting a giant food-grade CO2 tank like McDonalds uses, and some adapter for that?

For a politcal activist type who has high moral standard, I am suprised you find this Isreali company with really questionable business practice investible.

So... instead of being annoyed, I looked up the stock (SODA) and they have no debt, a P/E of 25, and seem to be growing rapidly. I bought some of the stock today. Mistake? What am I missing?

If there is anything that you are missing, it's that this is probably more if a trading stock than a buy and hold.

Being an Israeli company shouldn't factor into any 'moral' decision making, when it comes to investing....

Now, if you want to gamble/trade, and think SODA has some upside, then knock 'yerself out, and load up.

However, if you want the closest 'sure thing' to 10% annual growth, Coca Cola (KO) is it. Buy/Hold and re-invest the dividends, and you'll be all set. Decades (!) of increasing dividends by 10% annually like clockwork (in February of each year, IIRC). Don't buy the hype of 'sugary drinks/obesity/blablabla', you are buying a distributor that happens to sell a handful of products (out of 200+) that's getting the knickers of the politically correct in a twist. If KO dives on temporary bad news by being under this temporary microscope, then you buy w/ both fists till you gots no more dry powder to spend.

There is a reason why KO is one of Warren Buffet's top 10 holdings. It's a free cash-flow machine.

AverageBear says

Being an Israeli company shouldn't factor into any 'moral' decision making,
when it comes to investing....

The equipment is manufactured in the west bank region of the Israel/Palestnian conflict to take advantage of workers with lack of labor laws/protection for poor people with some of the most disgusting working condition and peanut wages in the world.

It's exploiting labor at its absolute worst. You can support that, but I would not.

SFace says

AverageBear says

Being an Israeli company shouldn't factor into any 'moral' decision making,

when it comes to investing....

The equipment is manufactured in the west bank region of the Israel/Palestnian conflict to take advantage of workers with lack of labor laws/protection for poor people with some of the most disgusting working condition and peanut wages in the world.

It's exploiting labor at its absolute worst. You can support that, but I would not.

So you are OK w/ your iPhone, where it was made, and who made it? Or if you don't have an iPhone, pick any of the many electronic gadgets and household appliances and housewares that you own...

So picking on, and concentrating on an Israeli company because of its questionable labor practices, while turning a blind eye to the thousands of other MNCs (like Apple) that do the same thing is OK with you?

Sounds like you want to talk more about Israel, than whether SODA is a sound investment. (Pat.net does have a section for politics for this).....

zzyzzx says

AverageBear says

ZZ, i picked up 25 shares today at around $40 a share. The P/E is a tad over 20x, but when you buy in w/ such a small chunk of money ($1000), it's not the end of the world. My 401K is a little light on KO and JNJ(heavy w/ INTC, PM, MCD) , so when I saw that the earnings was a little disappointing this morning, I picked up a small amount at 40...

Would you still by KO today at ~37/share?

ZZ, yes I bought another $1000 block around $37.25..... I'll buy KO when I have $$, as long as it's under a P/E of 20.... To me, t's worth the premium...

i found vita chocolate coconut water at the .99 cent store. 3 litres for .99 cent. just buy this instead. delish and healthier!

bgamall4 says

AverageBear says

So you are OK w/ your iPhone, where it was made, and who made it? Or if you don't have an iPhone, pick any of the many electronic gadgets and household appliances and housewares that you own...

So picking on, and concentrating on an Israeli company because of its questionable labor practices, while turning a blind eye to the thousands of other MNCs (like Apple) that do the same thing is OK with you?

At least the Chinese who are working on the Iphone are not prisoners to an occupation not unlike South Africa. It is a very different situation than China. Nice try though.

Almost as as bad as the TBTF American financial terrorists and the Fed plus their bought and paid for crony helpers in the government. But not quite ;)

mell says

At least the Chinese who are working on the Iphone are not prisoners to an occupation not unlike South Africa. It is a very different situation than China. Nice try though.

THanks reminding me why I have bgmall on my ignore list... :)

Because working conditions in China and South Africa will help the investor to decide if SODA is a good investment.... PFFFT.

This stock took a big dump today, and on a huge up day. That and it has huge short interest.

Down to 49.60 /sh

Stock is below 50/sh again. I am not sure if it's year end tax loss selling or the beginning of the end for this stock as a high growth stock.

PE is lower than when Patrick created this thread, and they have more competition.

Still going down, even after tax loss selling has presumably stopped.

zzyzzx says

Still going down, even after tax loss selling has presumably stopped.

Companies usually take a lot of write offs at the end of the year. They get a lot of tax deductions this way. Most important to look at is the cash flow, everything else is just accounting gimmicks.

$39.76/sh Down 10.13(20.31%) 9:34AM EST - On lowered guidance.

syrups are not selling in mature markets. (which reflects lower selling price of the machine and unfavorable mix "ie. lack of repeat customer).

If you want to invest in SODA, you have to look at the growth or lack of growth in syrup sale layering out inventory build-out of more SKU and new market.

Personally, I think SODA at home is quite stupid (anywhere in the world) when you can gets lots of them cheap in a million or variety cheap at Costco, supermarket or your local liquor store. Coffee for the adult at home --- yes, SODA at home --- WTF?

And as a follow up question to Patrick, how much Syrup/CO2 have you purchased in the past 12 months?

Mgmt is guiding a flat Q4 and likely a loss in Q1. There it goes based on cheap PE argument, (it's now expensive because forward earnings are poof, lol)

FY14 quarter estimate of 3.24 or so may be off by, I don't know, $3.00.