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JodyChunder
2013 Dec 29, 10:20am
I'm sure you'll be hitched for the long haul, Oinky, I'm mostly pointing out how Patrick.net is a little like Vegas, in that you only hear about the 'winnings.' But in this case, it's just a guy who took out a mortgage. Whether you overpaid or didn't...it's just kinda...tame stuff to gloat about.
If it doesn't work out, though, you can come out here and rent yourself a spread from ol' JC.
is a little like Vegas, in that you only hear about the 'winnings.'
Funny - I have only heard about the "loosings" on this site...
:)
JodyChunder
2013 Dec 29, 11:29am
You're funny, because you're actually pretty clearly a decent and highly likable person who only pretends to be a shit. You're miserable at it. (That's a good thing.)
s because the perm-bears kept telling me how sorry I am going to be, how 1975 prices were imminent, how I was setting myself up for failure.
and yet how odd that became true as in the case for Florida, Arizona, So Cal and many other parts of the nation... excluding SFBA...
picking 1975 or 1995 as base for normal pricing seems to have worked out..
i dont recall anyone calling anyone "loser" over analysis of historical prices ! but certainly Pnet
saw its fair share of Realtors calling buyes/renters losers for not buying...
which place in this country has reached 1975 real estate prices?
i should be clear 1975 or 1995 plus inflation...
so what should a house that cost $50k 1970 be sold for now in your book?
so what should a house that cost $50k 1970 be sold for now in your book?
plus inflation....
as was the case for LA and SFBA...
what you bought in 1975 or 1980 was same plus inflation by 1995...
Wildebeest
2013 Dec 29, 1:38pm
Average home price in 1970 was ~$25000 which is equivalent to ~$150,000 in 2013
The graphs you posted end in 2011 but it's 2014 ...they are useless. Sorry.
Eman
2013 Dec 29, 2:35pm
SubOink,
Congrats bud. With the mortgage interest deduction and the inflation rate, you are effectively borrowing this money for free for the next 30 years. Can't beat free money.
thomaswong...You used those exact same graphs 3 years ago when I bought. You tried then to make a case how prices 'must' revert down. They did not. Obviously, whatever you read into those graphs proved wrong 3 years later because prices have gone up. A LOT!
When will you realize that you were wrong?
The graphs you posted end in 2011 but it's 2014 ...they are useless. Sorry.
they prove a point.. as Robert Shiller also points out, its very simple...
over the long run, prices appreciate at rate of inflation... if we went up
20% then its sure prices will correct downwards.. thats what the charts show.
Of course people in LA expect 20-30% per year appreciation forever... and ever !
The graphs you posted end in 2011 but it's 2014 ...they are useless. Sorry.
they prove a point.. as Robert Shiller also points out, its very simple...
over the long run, prices appreciate at rate of inflation... if we went up
20% then its sure prices will correct downwards.. thats what the charts show.
Of course people in LA expect 20-30% per year appreciation forever... and ever !
I also watched that video 3 years ago when you posted it. Luckily, I ignored it then.
As a family that was in need for a place to live we had 2 options...rent a house or buy a house. It only came down to monthly payment. Had I trusted your Robert Shiller I had stayed renting and now 3 years later another $90k in rent would have been thrown out the window and the house prices are much much higher. It would have been a very costly mistake that I luckily didn't do.
You have to realize when you and your sources have been wrong. People that listened to you are paying a hefty price for it. So another few years of rising prices are ahead of us...then they crash but how far? Who knows? In the meantime you have to rent - that money is gone. And if prices only crash 20% at that point you are still not getting it at 2011 levels. What have you gained? What if inflation takes off...your green line will go up steeply all of a sudden and meet house prices. So you can claim that you were right but you still missed the boat because instead of prices coming down inflation went up.
Btw, I don't even care if prices had stayed flat or came 20% down from where I bought because once again...renting my own house would at this point be almost $1000/m more than what I am paying. I cannot live anywhere cheaper if I like the neighborhood and size of house.
It's all about monthly!!! For a family like mine it's the choice of renting vs monthly payment and for an investor it's about the monthly because he is looking for a return for his money. Very simple!!
Donjump, I hear ya.
Mine was around 120k. Where did it come from? Years of working our asses off and saving! 2 incomes. One going straight to savings. It was not easy because I like to keep a cushion of 2 years of living expenses around. I am weird like that. (Has to do with my freelance lifestyle)
In my book if you can't put aside the 20% then you probably cannot afford the house and it's better to wait and invest in your career. I doubled my income from 2003 to 2013. So I am 'ok' that we didn't buy back in 2003. We didn't have the downpay plus cushion then. Just weren't ready. Funny that we ended up buying at 2003 levels anyways just 8 years later.
No one knows the future. Let's hope we all get what we want :)
I wouldn't jump in the market because 'you will be priced out forever' , I would only jump in when your life and the market meet at what works for you. Maybe you will be buying at 2013 levels in 2018...in the meantime try to save some $.
tatupu70
2013 Dec 30, 3:05am
Thomas--
You really need to give up on those old graphs you post. You're trying to apply a macro concept to an individual market. Individual cities are certain to rise (or fall) at rates different that what the overall average suggests as people move. Detroit is one extreme--Bay area might be the other.
You might as well be saying that Apple or Microsoft has been overvalued for the last 20 years because the S&P500 only appreciates at 7%/year. Therefore, those individual stocks are impossibly overvalued.
Tenpoundbass
2013 Dec 30, 3:08am
I couldn't imagine even wanting to live somewhere I could rent cheaper than if I bought.
I also watched that video 3 years ago when you posted it. Luckily, I ignored it then.
As a family that was in need for a place to live we had 2 options...rent a house or buy a house. It only came down to monthly payment. Had I trusted your Robert Shiller I had stayed renting and now 3 years later another $90k in rent would have been thrown out the window and the house prices are much much higher. It would have been a very costly mistake that I luckily didn't do.You have to realize when you and your sources have been wrong. People that listened to you are paying a hefty price for it. So another few years of rising prices are ahead of us...then they crash but how far? Who knows? In the meantime you have to rent - that money is gone. And if prices only crash 20% at that point you are still not getting it at 2011 levels. What have you gained?
Suboink - I couldn't agree more. My story is similar to yours albeit a decade earlier. I also had to deal with hysterical screeching from doomsday permabears - the difference was these were only a handful of people I knew - I shudder to think what would have happened had sites like this existed back then with literally hundreds of hysterians (the majority of which have no idea what they are talking about) telling you in unison that you will be financially devastated soon enough.
Had I listened, I would still be renting today - having paid over a quarter million renting over the past 13 years. Moreover, even at the 2009 bottom prices were far far above what I too was told was "unsustainable" so many years earlier. Also, at this point I am blitzing off principal such that I am now seriously considering paying it off and living essentially payment free.
The problem of course is that many posters here have difficulty distinguishing between a "bubble" which existed say, 2003-2009, and "insanely high prices" which may exist for decades upon end. It is the difference from being a "bear" which is a temporal condition between periods of bullishness and a "permabear" who stays 2-3-10 steps behind the current market prices such that they stay forever sidelined.
The irony here is that with an unlimited timeline (literally hundreds of years) I feel certain that Thomas will be right. However, as I am also reasonably certain that Thomas' moment of vindication will not come in his or our lifetimes, I strongly encourage you to continue to update your progress on an annual basis.
In all seriousness, years from now, Thomas very well could still be here, not changing his tune in the slightest, literally telling the year 2019 newbies the same tales that he did in 2006-2008 (when he was on his way to being right), and 2009-2013 (when he was horrendously wrong) damning each successive generation into a lifetime of renting - thus it would be helpful to see a former success story like you come back and counteract his unrelenting pessimism and deterministic thinking.
I could literally see some graduate psychology student reviewing a lifetime of back and forth between the two of you, set against the backdrop of Thomas' utterly wrong predictions and writing a treatise on the destructive power of permabearish thinking.
What about if I bought during the 'wrong' time? I would be saddled with debt and a huge APR, and also be underwater on my mortgage, which would affect my emotional balance, I am sure.
Donjumpsuit - I was going to try to write a substantive, (hopefully) helpful response based on what you had previously written about your situation.
However, it appears that I cannot in that you have largely deleted everything you have ever written on this site. May I politely ask why?
hanera
2013 Dec 30, 5:56am
It's all about monthly!!! For a family like mine it's the choice of renting vs monthly payment and for an investor it's about the monthly because he is looking for a return for his money. Very simple!!
For a family, agree is all about monthly (assuming a stable job and planning to stay for more than five years). No idea for investors.
hanera
2013 Dec 30, 6:03am
Funny that we ended up buying at 2003 levels anyways just 8 years later.
Which city? I bought in early 2011 at 2005 price level. Price is up 50% since. According to Zillow, the bottom price is 18% below the high in 2006.
hanera
2013 Dec 30, 6:24am
I have rented for the past 20 years, and the difference between you and I is that I could move tomorrow, and still have a life ...
I would have loved to be in your position, and most certainly would have bought, however, I was in between jobs and evacuating my 401k at the time.
Given your lifestyle choice, renting is the correct choice.
Now all I have to do is think about how much I would have paid in repairs, taxes, HOA, and interest to know that that is a small price to pay.
Said donjumps
-------------
That's the bare bones slum lord assessment. If you are like your typical mortgage debtor, you would inevitably fallen trap to tying up countless hours and dollars making your house a home, with all the quirky upgrades and fix er uppins
Not to mention the mindset that infects most any of the fools that buy into the housing numbers only go up baloney, is that, "hey, look at all this untapped equity!. second mortgafes, helocs, serial refinancing and spending outside you means. Its OPM, other peoples money! If you can't beat um, join um, and tap that equity like a nice olive skinned brunette"
YAY WOO WOO
YAY WOO WOO
Some days I am excited, some are less than the best, some days I am silly, some days I am making a stand for all humanity.
This makes it very hard to take anything you say serious then because we don't know if you are just having a bad day, drank too much, feel silly or try to attempt to save all of humanity.
I think people that post here don't think its just "fun" - its actually very serious matter what happens to your financial future. When I first showed up here I was destroyed by the rising housing market. My wife and I both just couldn't believe what was happening. A house would come on the market. Same day you check it out, people are writing offers on the hood of their realtors car hood...always over asking price. We thought we were the only ones that thought it was stupid. I came here and found others that felt the same and somehow it made me feel a little better. There was little fun involved. Mostly frustration and anger.
Glad we all serve your entertainment purposes. It didn't sound like you were laughing much in your last post...but hey, you are probably just feeling silly and don't really mean it. Might as well erase the post.
Strategist
2013 Dec 30, 7:09am
The graphs you posted end in 2011 but it's 2014 ...they are useless. Sorry.
they prove a point.. as Robert Shiller also points out, its very simple...
over the long run, prices appreciate at rate of inflation... if we went up
20% then its sure prices will correct downwards.. thats what the charts show.
Of course people in LA expect 20-30% per year appreciation forever... and ever !
If home prices only increased at the rate of inflation over time, Beverly Hills would be the same price as Barstow. San Francisco would be the same price as Stockton. How do you explain the difference?
If home prices only increased at the rate of inflation over time, Beverly Hills would be the same price as Barstow. San Francisco would be the same price as Stockton. How do you explain the difference?
what are you comparing ... the same 1950s shack in Beverly Hills to todays resale value... well yes.. (explain why prices fell by 50% in BH back in early 90s. and later in recent years)
or are you comparing 800 shack in BH to a 8000 sq ft mansion down the road ?
I could literally see some graduate psychology student reviewing a lifetime of back and forth between the two of you, set against the backdrop of Thomas' utterly wrong predictions and writing a treatise on the destructive power of permabearish thinking.
which prediction was that... my statement it was a good time to buy in Miami...
just dont trip over the dead bodies... that one ?
are you just another pathetic REALTOR troll... seriously...
In all seriousness, years from now, Thomas very well could still be here, not changing his tune in the slightest, literally telling the year 2019 newbies the same tales that he did in 2006-2008 (when he was on his way to being right), and 2009-2013 (when he was horrendously wrong) damning each successive generation into a lifetime of renting - thus it would be helpful to see a former success story like you come back and counteract his unrelenting pessimism and deterministic thinking.
clearly in all this time you been on PNET.. you havent figured it out yet...
whats the proper RISKLESS PRICING OF ANY HOME given ANY YEAR..
bubble or not ! or are you a REALTOR troll ?
If home prices only increased at the rate of inflation over time, Beverly Hills would be the same price as Barstow. San Francisco would be the same price as Stockton. How do you explain the difference?
what are you comparing ... the same 1950s shack in Beverly Hills to todays resale value... well yes.. (explain why prices fell by 50% in BH back in early 90s. and later in recent years)
or are you comparing 800 shack in BH to a 8000 sq ft mansion down the road ?
Are you really not getting this?
Here is another example:
Lets compare a shack as you call it from 1950 in Barstow to the same 1950 shack in Santa Monica. How come they are priced differently? Should just stay on the inflation curve right? Should be the same price then.
Or...how come a house that was $20k in Malibu 1970 is now 2Million when that same house in Studio City is only 800k. Why? They should also be the same price according to your theories.
These are really just rhetorical questions...
Lets compare a shack as you call it from 1950 in Barstow to the same 1950 shack in Santa Monica. How come they are priced differently? Should just stay on the inflation curve right? Should be the same price then.
As Robert Shiller pointed out.. you need to compare apples to apples..the resale price of a single home over the decades... you can talk of one.. Barstow or Santa Monica.. not both....
And yes, for many homes in the USA, its already been proven real estate price will be the same over the long run from 1950 to today...
else no point to talk to someone who is living in ga ga land !
As Robert Shiller pointed out.. you need to compare apples to apples..the resale price of a single home over the decades... you can talk of one.. Barstow or Santa Monica.. not both....
Ok, then lets use the example of a Malibu 1950's home. How come it has gained much much more in value than the home in Barstow? I am not comparing the 2 I am asking you to explain why one home in location A gains 1000% in price and another similar house only 300%. How is that explained when you show a curve with a green line and tell me that all houses will end up at the green line level??? Do you not see the fault in that ?
I actually think you are the one living in a made up reality.
Ok, then lets use the example of a Malibu 1950's home. How come it has gained much much more in value than the home in Barstow? I am not comparing the 2 I am asking you to explain why one home in location A gains 1000% in price and another similar house only 300%. How is that explained when you show a curve with a green line and tell me that all houses will end up at the green line level??? Do you not see the fault in that ?
I actually think you are the one living in a made up reality.
NO ! you explain why Robert Shillers findings are all wrong...
You are out of your mind in believing 300% is typical appreciation...
at best we saw 100% appreciation over a highly inflationary period with economic boom
job growth and incomes from 1980 to 1985...
Bigsby
2013 Dec 30, 10:34am
NO ! you explain why Robert Shillers findings are all wrong...
You said many but not all places in the USA. And a lot of things have changed in the world economy (and population) in recent decades.
NO ! you explain why Robert Shillers findings are all wrong...
That's easy - according to him my house should have gone down in value but instead it has gone up :)
Also...more detailed description is here: http://themortgagereports.com/13424/flawed-case-shiller-index-shows-home-values-rising-nationwide-up-12-1-annually
Now your turn...please explain my question from the last post. You are backing out. You are the one posting graphs. So then explain why a Malibu home has gained much more percentage in the same time period than a Barstow home if all homes should follow the inflation line. Come on...I would like to hear YOUR explanation for it.
That's easy - according to him my house should have gone down in value but instead it has gone up :)
We are not in a rational market... hardly.. even Shiller will point out the Market
is driven by Govt policies over 90% of housing.
So no! your numbers are unrealistic.
So no! your numbers are unrealistic.
My numbers are the reality as they ARE the actual price on the street. Yours are unrealistic and exist only in a you tube video.
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Well...I am back again like every year keeping everyone posted. Nothing new to say other than prices have shot up even further in 2013. So have rents. My mortgage is way under what it would cost to rent my own house (due to refi-ing at 1.25% lower than when we bought). Glad I snapped out of my own bear mindset that I had for years and pulled the trigger. When we bought we could not know prices would go up like they have and we didn't buy because I predicted prices to go up. We simply bought because we used to pay a shitload of money in rent and when we did the common sense calc we realized that its equal to buying. Then we found a place (after along long search) that we love and can afford (was exactly on par with the rent we used to pay - for a much smaller house). The fact that interest rates kept sinking was a pleasant surprise. It feels good to have a cheap mortgage locked in for 30 years. If I wanted to get out of this house and relocate it would be no problem. I could sell it for much more or rent it for much more than my mortgage so we feel barely "trapped".
Here is a link from my post last year and the year before.
Interestingly enough, most posters that advised me to not buy and that I made a huge mistake have disappeared from this forum or taken on new identities (lol - we know who you are). That is one way to deal with being wrong.
SubOink says
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
#housing