patrick.net

However, it’s easy to underestimate the financial position of many of these folks.

Perhaps 25M+ properties will not see much activities.

It is also easy to overestimate ...

http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2006/08/1200_indiana_the_final_chapter.html#comments

I see this trend continuing:

San Mateo (all price ranges):
6/8/06 1363
6/12/06 1428
6/19/06 1452
6/26/06 1467
7/10/06 1488
8/21/06 1511

San Jose (all price ranges):
6/8/06 3669
6/12/06 3709
6/19/06 3793
6/26/06 3915
7/10/06 3915
8/21/06 4115

source: mlslistings.com

Kevin Says:

Peninsula: Prices will slide 5-15%. Rich folk and existing long-time owners still dominate the area.

SF and Peninsula prices are already either flat or even slightly (-)ive YoY in many parts. So are you predicting that SF prices will basically remain flat (negative in real terms), or appreciate with inflation from now on?

newsfreak,
Agreed. Just trying to figure out what Kevin is predicting exactly.

>So as workers’ wages in the middle class go down and they put pressure on goods to be cheaper, as do elderly people on fixed incomes

That's overly simplistic. If oil/natural resource prices continue to go up, prices will go up. If China/India continues to be more propserous, prices will go up.

People don't have an entitlement to afford things.

SFWoman,

Thanks for bringing that observation to light. As a planner myself it just doesn't carry the same weight as someone like yourself. What people on the west coast seem to almost always completely overlook is how east coast old money works. Typically the portfolio spins off dividends and interest that are redeployed to purchase HUGE life insurance policies that ensure the next generations place in society! (And so it grows and grows). The trusts the TB's live off of are relatively small when compared to the overall net worth of the family. Trying to explain to most folks on the west coast that wealth means more than a new bimmer (wealth means several generations to come will have new bimmers) is like peeing up a rope. In so many instances here out west if their income dried up (so would their lifestyle). Just an observation.

Kevin,

I can agree in principle but not necessarily in practice. The important distinction being (as SFWoman points out) is that the dream can go on as long as the "appreciation" is there to draw on. Again, if the "income" is there the facade can continue.

It's surprising, but some places are actually hiking their offering prices here in the Pennin:

http://www.burbed.com/2006/08/21/east-palo-alto-price-hike-2239-poplar-ave-now-at-504000/

It’s surprising, but some places are actually hiking their offering prices here in the Pennin

Can't sell it? Hike that price! Sounds reasonable (as a coping mechanism) to me.

Within the condo building I live in (I rent from a condo owner), I’m seeing prices holding pretty steady, and at the same time I’m seeing a lot of gentrification of the area.

Gentrification? Sounds scary to me.

Harm:
precisely why I got fed up with So Cal. If unaffordable housing wasn't bad enough.. I had to pay taxes for people working largely in a underground economy created in large by small business and the greed culture. I think it is all slave labor but,even so they are willing to keep coming because it's better than where they come from.

To many self serving business people in So Cal. If you looked at all the housing bulit in the last five years primarily by illegals. Just about all business has these folks off the books (paid cash) no benefits or insurance. Companies save millions we middle class earners have to take up the slack.

We basically created our own monster. And they keep coming....

I had to pay taxes for people working largely in a underground economy created in large by small business and the greed culture.

The guest worker program should fix this. The labor is necessary. It just needs a way to regulate and tax them properly.

You cannot fight greed. Humanity is by nature disgusting.

The funny thing was, Ron Insana chimed in that he called the peak of the housing market and the existance of a bubble last fall.

So everyone starts to jump on the bandwagon and claim they saw this coming.

This approach works so well for our history-revisionist media pundits, I wonder if it would work also for the Lottery? I could claim that I "called" last week's winning numbers months ago, and so am entitled to the winnings. Must try this sometime.

I think there needs to be tougher measures against identity theft. Capital punishment should be extended to these economically damaging crimes. Seriously.

I don’t think Reconquista and MECHa are that popular in the Mexican community. They are fringe organizations that draw little support.

MECHa is a fairly mainstream organization. Some of their members have said some radical things, but then again so have some members of the Republican party, the church, the military and just about any other social organization with more than a dozen members. Just because there are radicals within an institution does not mean that the institution itself is radical.

To the extent that there are radical separatist latino groups (I'm not familiar with 'Reconquista' so I can't comment), they do not reflect the views of the larger community. Just as neo-nazi skinheads and the aryan brotherhood do not reflect the views of the larger white community. There is a lot of fear-mongering on talk radio, aimed at a mostly white male audience, which is intended to make the listener feel that Latinos want to "take over." The reality is that the vast majority just want to take care of their families and try to get ahead--just like everybody else.

According to Robertson the FBs and loose lending will cause the utter collapse of civilisation as we know it.

Not impossible. Psychology will be the primary driving force.

That’s exactly what Schiller said…he really narrowed it all down to psychology.

Don't worry. He does not need to appear bearish anymore. The market will go where it needs to be. Fear has been, and will be the most powerful emotion.

LILLL,

I watched Suzy Assad interview RS on Friday and he was positively glowing! As the implosion becomes more obvious and tougher to deny the less he has to say. He's in an awkward postion right now b/c (as we've noted here) his housing futures are not exactly blowing anyone's doors off. However with all of the data pouring in he KNOWS he's in the catbird seat having a new financial product that can't help but be a lightning rod!

I'd heard that Toll Bros. up and walked away from several land options deals and will have some more bad news for shareholders! At some point they'll have to hedge these positions and he has just the vehicle to do it.

For Robert to tout his position at this point would be an awful lot like a bankruptcy attorney's advertisement saying;

"We help all types of freaking LOSERS"! So get your lame broke dick a$$ down to my office for a tongue lashing you won't soon forget! Our staff will treat with the respect you deserve. NONE! Swing by for your free belittlement (I mean consultation) today!

For Robert to tout his position at this point would be an awful lot like a bankruptcy attorney’s advertisement saying;

“We help all types of freaking LOSERS”! So get your lame broke dick a$$ down to my office for a tongue lashing you won’t soon forget! Our staff will treat with the respect you deserve. NONE! Swing by for your free belittlement (I mean consultation) today!

This is precisely what he SHOULD say. Bob Shiller is far too polite. We Bubbleheads have long been insulted, baited and belittled by gloating arrogant bull a$$hats. In my Book 'o Cosmic Karma, that's called "just payback". And it's a bitch (and so is Suzanne).

eburbed Says:

It’s surprising, but some places are actually hiking their offering prices here in the Pennin:

http://www.burbed.com/2006/08/21/east-palo-alto-price-hike-2239-poplar-ave-now-at-504000/

Checked out your linked EPA house in question. I can totally understand why they would jack up to asking price - it's SO worth it!! Especially being in "up and coming" EPA!

LILLL and DinOR,

I'll bet Shiller has to keep his commentary on the DL now, given his housing futures thing. He can't appear to be trying to push prices one way or another, or else there will be accusations of trying to gain the system.

On the Fox News interviews, if bubble predicting has reached Fox, it has really become mainstream!

I saw a listing in Mountain View that has also had it's asking price raised......I wonder if the new plan is - raise the prices, so you can lower them whenthe house still hasn't sold, and...

hey, presto - it seems like a bargain to an unsuspecting buyer? But it's what you originally wanted for the moneypit.......

HARM,

No argument here! I would find it very hard not to plop my feet up on Suzy's desk with a cigar in one hand and scratching myself with the other. RS has a few considerations to think of though. He did say that he can NOT personally make investments in the CME Futures. This tends to imply that he would be considered an "insider" and as such he has certain fiduciary responsibilities.

He knows where the data is leading him, and just what it means for the future. He'll get more mileage appealing to institutions, not bludegoning FB's. He was absolutely glowing. How many times in life do we get to do that?

This tends to imply that he would be considered an “insider” and as such he has certain fiduciary responsibilities.

I thought insiders are welcomed in the futures game. I think he is more than an insider then.

skibum,

Agreed. Additionally there may be some sort of "quiet period" like with an IPO? You know where no one is supposed to issue target prices and the like? How long will it be though before Cohen and Steers or Neuberger Berman start incorporating CME's in their research reports? Then RS can really kick back and let the street figure it out.

Peter P,

Yeah, I can't say for sure. Because he actually fathered the thing and is a published author on the topic his may be a very unique agreement. It may be as simple as RS not wanting to scare off what few bulls remain?

Some time back someone posted a link for the "mortgage specialist" for the hispanic community? It was totally hilarious! Almost as good as "Fantasyland Mortgage"! Can anyone find that? You know, it was that really primative cartoon with the guy that had this really gravelly voice saying stuff like; "Call TODAY for your free cancel-tation"

It will be so much fun to watch the media spin and lies as the months go by. CNBC, FOX NEWS, BLOOMBERG,and the rest. Can you ever remember a housing bubble that involved so many sectors with vested interest? And do you think for one moment that the goverment does not realise the damages to come? I think the Fed will be pressured to attempt to stop this runaway train at all cost (our dollar). Tell me this isn't different than last time?

This will just add one more aspect to the coming election. History repeats itself. Everytime the GOP finishes with this country there is alot of shit to clean up. Things won't change until the middle class really stand up and let the electorate know by our vote. We have the power we just don't exercise it. Accountability we need to demand it at the polls.

They kept talking…strong fundamentals…(Levy, economist for banc of America) and Schiller kept nodding his head.

I do not believe in fundamentals. This is why I may never pass the CFA exams.

LiLLL, I would not worry too much about the fundamentals talk. Many economicsts do not really accept the possibility that prices can change fundamentals.

It looks like a complex non-linear system. But it is actually very simple. It is nothing but a simple cycle of greed and fear that humanity can never escape.

But Peter, aren't you a "market fundamentalist" ;-)

@DinOR,

That would be homestarrunner's 'Strong Bad' character posing as "Senor Cardgage Mortgage": http://www.homestarrunner.com/senormortgage.html

"Market time" or "days on the market" will be removed from the MLS. Actually, I didn't need to consult my crystal ball - this policy is being implemented right now according to two agents I recently spoke with.

It's interesting that when things go bad the information starts to become harder to come by - witness the discontinuation of M3 at the FRB.

@Bap33 & Sylvie,

The problem is, the working and middle ¢lasses are currently no match for those lawyer$, lobbiest$, or $pecial intere$ts. We're so poor, we can't even afford a "$" symbol --we're stuck using the lowly "¢". :-(

But Peter, aren’t you a “market fundamentalist”

I do not know anymore.

Until and unless there are unlimited resources, there will be discontent.

We’re so poor, we can’t even afford a “$” symbol –we’re stuck using the lowly “¢”.

€uropeans must be more powerful now.

But we're not too popular with the €uropeans right now. Perhaps we can borrow a few "£'s" from the British.

Perhaps we can borrow a few “£’s” from the British.

£O£ :lol:

Peter P Says:

£O£

So you've got a "Yen" for “£’s”???

So you’ve got a “Yen” for “£’s”???

Â¥es?