patrick.net

smaulgld says

darlag says

Almost no one thinks it's going to happen, which is precisely why it will.

Is that normally how you rationalize things?

Extreme opinions, shared widely, constitute the single most reliable indicator of an impending change of direction for a market. If virtually everyone is thinking one way, they have already acted. Virtually everyone believes the stock market will continue to rise (according to a host of sentiment polls and indicators). That means everyone is already all in. There is no place left to go now but down.

I listen to the Alan Beaulieu at ITR they have a 95% accuracy rating, on their predictions, albeit they don't predict stock or gold but economic trends. They are adamant bout 2030 being the SHTF year.

The EW guys say the end of this decade? the ITR guys also predict something in 2018 however it will not be the "big on" according to them.

They use moving averages to predict change.

indigenous says

The EW guys say the end of this decade?

The consensus at EWI, with which I generally concur, is that Cycle degree wave _a_ started at the orthodox peak in 2000 and did an a-b-c zigzag until it bottomed in March 2009. The rise since 2009 has been Cycle wave _b_ which has drawn out an a-b-c that is peaking now. Cycle wave _c_ should be a five wave decline of Primary degree moves that will carry the markets well below the 2009 bottom. One analysis is below 400 on the Dow, certainly below 3000.

Cycle wave _c_ will be catastrophic. It will collapse quickly and violently once it gains momentum. The best target for a time phase seems to be mid-to-late 2016. That's not much time for a collapse of that magnitude. It will take some pretty nasty social mood to pull that off. But that's what Elliott Waves are indicating. And bubble theory supports the idea as well.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-reserve-and-the-u-s-congress-have-created-a-debt-crisis-of-historic-proportion/

Deflation time!

darlag says

The consensus at EWI, with which I generally concur, is that Cycle degree wave _a_ started at the orthodox peak in 2000 and did an a-b-c zigzag until it bottomed in March 2009.

General comment or specifically refer to Dow? My view for S&P index is 2000-2009 is Cycle degree wave four. Now is in Cycle degree wave five, ensuing would be SuperCycle degree type of correction of either wave two (very severe decline but relatively short) or wave four (EW calls it sideways but is a lot more damaging).

darlag says

Someone here said something like - Elliott waves are perfectly clear in hindsight

This is truth for both FA and TA. Is a non-statement. People who make this type statement is parroting what is expressed by others. They can't even explain how so.

darlag says

Most traders will say "you can't call tops and bottoms." Elliotticians just laugh at that. It's the whole point of using the Theory.

Is why I have spent many years understanding EWT. Is the only technique that can make such a forecast (accuracy depending on skill of Elliottician).

darlag says

There was never any doubt the wave was a 4th wave, the only question was what shape it would take.

Is easy to identify a wave four but impossible to identify its exact pattern and when it will complete.

hanera says

accuracy depending on skill of Elliottician

Very true. There are quacks in every profession.

hanera says

Is easy to identify a wave four but impossible to identify its exact pattern and when it will complete.

If not impossible, for sure very difficult until the majority of the wave has formed.

hanera says

General comment or specifically refer to Dow? My view for S&P index is 2000-2009 is Cycle degree wave four. Now is in Cycle degree wave five, ensuing would be SuperCycle degree type of correction of either wave two (very severe decline but relatively short) or wave four (EW calls it sideways but is a lot more damaging).

Yeah, I wasn't going that deep with this crowd. Either way, the end result will be a bear market decline of major proportion.

I don't think Prechter has a clear picture right now either. He has acceded to the possibility of a Cycle degree 5th in progress but the financial forecast hasn't changed the labels. In the end it doesn't matter. The character of the coming decline will tell the story.

Elliot Waves fit random data.

Therefore random data is predictable!

HydroCabron says

Elliot Waves fit random data.

Therefore random data is predictable!

Statistically. Don't misconstrued as a sure and/or precise thingy.
Just because the probability of coming out a five is 90% doesn't mean the next outcome is five.

Eliot wave on gold prices
http://www.mineweb.com/elliott-wave-analyst-sees-much-higher-gold-silver-prices-ahead/

WSJ on gold and silver
http://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-and-silver-buyers-take-a-shine-to-precious-metals-again-1421969156

Two who predict the $600 range and two who predict an up tick?

indigenous says

Two who predict the $600 range and two who predict an up tick?

If you are interested in bottom fishing for gold I would be careful of missing the boat as you wait for $600 although possible. The strongest logical point my model found is $920 and the over shoot is $850+/-. Before gold can get there $1000+/- more than likely will be tested hard.

Living price is always the confirmation in any market, anything other than that is pure speculation.

The dollar is showing signs of temporary weakness as suspected at these lofty heights. A pullback has likely begun (although not a given quite yet), which should carry it back into the $84-85 range over the next few months.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/u-s-dollar-indexelliott-wave-update-for-week-ending-1162015/

As for Gold, it has more upside before it eventually resumes the down trend it started in 2011. As I projected here in December, gold has started a bear market rally into Primary wave [B] which will last several more months before finally succumbing to Primary wave [C].

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/gold-elliott-wave-update-for-week-ending-12122014/

darlag says

As for Gold, it has more upside

Possibly but not likely, the 1s who chased gold up to 1307.35 probably bought at the last high.
There will need to be so much more buying to swamp sellers. This environment doesn't really contain
enough of the needed elements I believe to get the job done as far breaking any new highs goes.
Perhaps retesting the last highs if enough buying can keep price up above 1225 over the next few weeks.
There is about $5 of support price is setting on currently with a continuation of reduced volume.
1200+/- is a much more supported area an likely a the time to test the ceiling of resistance out in over
the last couple of weeks. 1255-1300.

DXY weakening will be from consumer credit use which still is a soft market as of yet. DXY
below 92.5+/- is some what a leading indicator due to the ability to watch price performance
as it unfolds, below that I'm watching 90.5 then 88.70. Consumer credit level lags due to it being
reported quarterly however the level of penetration to the downside DXY makes is a good scale of
weight of consumer credit use.

Are waves and technical chart analysis similar?

Are there certain chart patterns and waves that nearly always indicate a crash or sharp rise?

If so, are the exceptions due to a clearly explainable event (eg natural disaster) or are there some unexplainable anomolies?

smaulgld says

Are waves and technical chart analysis similar?

Are there certain chart patterns and waves that nearly always indicate a crash or sharp rise?

If so, are the exceptions due to a clearly explainable event (eg natural disaster) or are there some unexplainable anomolies?

Really to me it boils down to no more than tools used to profile the market. Personally I use indication in any form seeking logical point
of higher probability of price reaction. Indicators do little for a persons if they lack understanding of applicable market theory and the
true factors effecting their market of choice, (underlying conditions). Once those areas of logic are found and some sort of confirmation
is achieved I trade and then make price prove if I'm right or wrong with the weight of the movement. There are patterns that denote
possible break-outs or downs however if your profiling skills are weak then you end up on the wrong side. All that waves do are point to a
logical point where price might react as do all systems. Due to the underlying conditions being out of site to 95%+ of traders they fail no
matter what the system they use.

Bias thought of "I know the market will" do this or that are generally the "unexplainable anomalies", at least to the guys on the wrong side.

Gold showed it's cards....
All plans intact, gold could not even test 1350 it's last pump and
reveals it's weight to the downside... expect a little
support and retest on its way down. however consider DXY
strength before you call your impression of a bottom.
Understand the potential of dollar strength. The lack of understanding
the real potential of dollar strength will keep a person on the wrong side
of the market. This environment has potential of lasting longer then most
grasp.

Tim Aurora says

Gold test $1165 today and the dollar is dropping too.

The dollar is very strong today.

As you can see as of yesterday not taking into account the euro weakness today, gold is still massively out performing the Euro.

and the Yen

rally let some people get out at $1300 at least.

What's a gold bug to do? Well, from this thread, it appears you tape a couple of bars to your body and go on vacation in Japan or Europe. Hmmm... I never thought of the "vacation fund" angle. Certainly an interesting (and illegal) way to avoid the collectible's tax.

Tim Aurora says

Gold test $1165 today and the dollar is dropping too.

Im not sure what you are looking at... The dollar is surging new high after new high....
http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/futures/DXY00

For The Last Made New High Percent From Made New Low Percent From
5-Day 5 times -0.03% 1 time +2.77%
1-Month 9 times -0.03% 4 times +4.15%
3-Month 20 times -0.03% 4 times +11.49%
6-Month 44 times -0.03% 1 time +16.58%
12-Month 71 times -0.03% 4 times +23.81%
Year to Date 14 times -0.03% 1 time +8.15%