patrick.net

factoid: 'real estate' etymologically means 'royal estate', as land given to peasants was often carved up out of royal landholdings. (as per units of currency being named the 'real', the crown, etc) so be grateful for your ¼ acre block, you lucky serfs...

"... that “hoard”, because they’re able to stretch into the payments just enough to keep the property off the market and let inflation eat away at the value"

Where's the sense in doing that? An investment that returns less than the inflation rate is a bad investment, imo.

Oil prices and inflation and the future of fed rate hikes...

http://mises.org/story/2331

As for "real" estate, DS is right. "Real" is an anachronistic connotion back when land held vast majority of the potential wealth and power. It is to distinguish land from personal property. Land was connected to the wealth of particular families, and there were severe restrictions about the transfer of land. A fun way to learn about this origin is to Wikipedia up some medieval kings and queens (Wikipedia links them up together) and see how they married.

Personal property used to mean furniture and a couple of moth eaten gowns. Nowadays personal property includes stocks, bonds, antiques, you name it!

BTW, I just want to say I now love the Orlando trade uppers. I will now make the same recommendation to all sellers. Have trouble selling your outrageously appreciated POS? Put a koi pond in it.

To me, that even beats the 12 year old jeep offer mentioned a couple weeks ago.

Where’s the sense in anything going on in Real Estate for the last few years?

We all know very well what has caused the housing bubble... in that sense it all makes "sense", even though we may think it unjust and wish it never happened.

A reader just asked me if owners get any property tax break when the value of their house falls. I think no.

Anyone know for sure?

Patrick

there are worse RE scams where mortgage brokers and RE agents collude in an area to buy property from little old ladies cheap and then onsell at inflated market prices...

casey is just a kid who listened to the RE gurus and paid for a seminar -- I think his opening post questioning the whole thing in retrospect summed it up well...

his enthusiasm knows no bounds tho, in whatever he does...

"The writer at mises.org is in the minority in his conclusions, I think. All we can do is save away, wait and see."

The writer comes from a different school of thought on the subject; it is not as popular (at least here in the US) as some other theories on economics, but it is one that makes a hell of a lot more sense (at least to me).

Randy no doubt would disagree (as he and I have in the past). Nevertheless, I do applaud his efforts to rattle the false realities of these FBs in any which way he can.

DS,

Casey Serin knowingly broke the law and admitted it. Okay, maybe the federal prosecutors can go easy on him since he fessed up (like asking for the lightest sentence) but they have a duty to charge him and put him away. Better yet, let him turn state's evidence and put all the scumbags he worked with away as well.

I've been reading more on this Serin character from the other blogs, and it looks like this moron (not kid, he's 6 years passed the age of majority, in a country that executes minors) intentionally timed his purchases simultaneously and took money out at most of his purchases, both indicating premeditation.

He was trying to scam people into assuming his hiked up mortgage (hiked up because he took cash when he bought). He was yakking on about retrieving his equity when he had no equity on the houses he "owned." Having been caught and realizing that he still have to deal with the mortgage brokers and bankers and realtors he badmouthed, his dim bulb finally lite up a little and he took the site down.

Put me down as someone who will not be shedding any tears. Yes, the mortgage brokers and realtors are also culpable, but Casey Serin made his own very uncomfortable bed so he deserves lie in it.

Could anyone tell me if it is possible to obtain a sellers credit report legally so one would know how desperate they may be in the negotiation?

BTW, I'm with the others here on prosecuting this Serin guy.

Thanks.

i think casey just followed the advice of people like robert g. allen, who has often recommended practices which are fraudulent in his seminars. ditto for the other gurus, as per John T. Reed's view of various real estate investment gurus. (i can say that freely given that john reed has already demonstrated it, and outside US jurisdiction also ;))

the lenders won't be held culpable, because he lied to them on a number of points -- just as the gurus recommend. (working on defence speech) the real guilty party here is the whole american 'get rich quick' mentality and the adulation of conspicuous consumption and (narrowly defined economic) 'success' by any means and at any price. the sheer number of ads you see on the net advising to get rich in shares, get rich in anything, in any way possible, surely has to have an effect on young, tender, developing psyches. the govt fails to regulate the gurus and their seminars. most spam originates from the US in this vein.

is it up to the lenders to prosecute casey for fraud in a civil proceeding -- if they feel like it? or would they turn it over to a state PA? if they wanted jail time and revenge, they could do that, but if they want to recover their money, better off letting him go free and have him learn an economic lesson -- unless they need to garnishee his wages forever also. or perhaps a suspended sentence is appropriate, in case he's a mini-fraudster in the making who will keep repeating...

i think his biggest mistake was believing the gurus and mistiming his run just as the boom was turning, due to insufficient research and awareness -- altho he points out he was trying to take the 'fixer-upper' path as well with little knowledge of construction costs...

"Will cheap oil save the housing bubble?"

Not a chance. The "housing bubble" is doomed by definition. The only thing that can give the "illusion" of the housing bubble being saved is a perpetual campaign of monetary accelaration.

DS,

Ignorance of the law is no defence. Wishful thinking is no defence.

Why bother having laws at all if they're not gonna be enforced? Forgiving lawbreakers hurt people who played by the rules and it encourages more law breaking. If this guy gets charged and ends up with a suspended sentence, that should be the judge or the jury's call, not that of the prosecution and certainly not of that of bloggers.

But first, charge his guilty ass.

Paul asked:
"Could anyone tell me if it is possible to obtain a sellers credit report legally so one would know how desperate they may be in the negotiation?"

The answer is NO.......

However, finding out if the seller is desperate is pretty easy to do.

Need info? Ask, and you shall receive. Asking the right questions will get you all the info you need to assess the seller's situation.

Example: If he wants a FAST close; make sure you can accomodate...for a price. If someone wants to close YESTERDAY, do you really need to find out his FICO score?

If he wants to close in four months; accomodate him....for a price.
Whatever he wants.....deliver....at a price.

Financial condition of the seller:
Search public records for all mortgages, loans, judgments, liens, etc. They have to be recorded and it's all open to whomever wishes to peek.

If he's on his last financial breath, drive a stake in his piggy bank. Sound cold?.....such is business.

There's nothing unethical about playing hardball but make sure you are prepared as it can get pretty messy.

sure. but is defrauding a bank a civil offence or a criminal one? not being legally trained, not taking much interest, and not being much on the side of the banks, i don't know the answer to that.

i know the british army guy who cheated on 'who wants to be a millionaire' was prosecuted for fraud and eventually drummed out of the army...

"Following a trial at Southwark Crown Court lasting a month, Major Ingram, his wife Diana and Tecwen Whittock were convicted of "procuring the execution of a valuable security by deception" on 7 April 2003. Ingram and his wife were each given suspended 18-month prison sentences and fined £15,000, while Whittock received a 12-month suspended sentence and was fined £10,000. Together with legal costs, it is estimated that the Ingrams will have to pay £50,000 in total."

Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? (UK game show) - The Major Charles Ingram affair

oops, not looking good...

Hi everyone. I've been visiting this site since the middle of last year and this is the first time I've felt compelled to write. I stopped by my parents house in Eagle Rock (the northern part of Los Angeles between Glendale and Pasadena) on Saturday and noticed that a tiny little house in my old neighborhood is for sale again. This place just sold in June 2006 for $545,000 so the first thought that came to mind was FLIPPER! When I got back home I looked the place up on realtor.com to see what the new asking price is. This guy has the place listed for $679,000. A $134,000 increase in just three monthes! Ordinarily I don't wish people harm but this really gets to me. I hope this guy goes down in flames! Eagle Rock has always been a nice mix of blue collar and white collar households but if these prices don't come back to reality only the rich will be able to afford anything there. It is kind of strange having to accept that I am severely priced out of the very neighborhoods I grew up in. My wife and I are saving up a down payment as best we can but if something does'nt give soon I think we'll be forced out of state.

Hey, it's the perfect deal for the flipper who knows the market is going to resume its 20% a year appreciation trajectory.

real = royal. i'll brook no other interpretations... just stop it!

Etymology
real; from French royale, from Latin regalis, royal, regal, from combining form reg- (nominative rex), king, + adjective suffix -alis

estate; from Latin status, condition, state

In spite of the name, real estate has no connection with the concept of reality. It derives instead from the feudal principle that in a monarchy, all land was considered the property of the king. Thus originally the term real estate was equivalent to "royal estate", real originating from the French royale, as it was the French-speaking Normans who introduced feudalism to England in the 11th century and thus the English language; cognate to Spanish 'real'.

real estate - Wiktionary

'real property' probably has the same origin -- it's just been fudged by too much butchery from L. to F. to E.: L. regalis vs realis...

"...if something does’nt give soon I think we’ll be forced out of state."

Don't put yourself in a situation you will regret even more. The plunging sales are just a first sign of a major melt down. The worst is yet to come.

David J., just watch a bit. Things seem to have stalled and I think we are going to see the market drop out of a lot of the really frothy areas.

Don't worry about me buying in at these prices. I work to hard for my money to throw it away on overpriced real estate. Our goal is to start looking when we have at least $200,000 put away and baring some unfotunate circumstance that should be around summer of 2008. Until then I plan to sit by and watch the market tank.

i think casey serin would be shown to be extremely naive, although very enthusiastic and motivated and reasonably intelligent. this is someone who unquestioningly believed all the courseware of RE 'gurus', didn't think about the illegality of the suggestions, then went on to unknowingly publicise his misdeeds to the entire world without recognising the ramifications for personal prosecution. this does not sound like the actions of a dyed in the wool conman in the making, more like someone who embraces advice from anywhere enthusiastically and uncritically, and is merely somewhat gullible. the judge would probably let him off with a warning or suspended sentence and recommend he go into a safe job and career where he doesn't need to make too many judgement calls... i've got a mate here who is somewhat like that who is notoriously gullible and has attended a lot of 'personal development' seminars but who luckily hasn't tried pulling off any property tricks -- altho he ended up becoming a mortgage broker, hmm...

frank Says:

> An investment that returns less than the
> inflation rate is a bad investment, imo

One thing the flippers that try to hang on waiting for real estate values to go back up will soon learn is that real estate has “Real” expenses…

Cisco is not going to call any of the stockholders and ask for $50K to help with R&D while they hang on waiting for the stock price to go back up…

In the past week I’ve hired guys to fix a leaking pool (where the leaking pipes are under the pool) for $22K in “Real” dollars, and hired guys to replace a fence for $8.5K in “Real” dollars…

Real Estate returns are also “Real” volatile… What other “investment” can go from thousands per month in positive cash flow to thousands (or even tens of thousands if tenants thrash the place) of negative cash flow overnight?

Welcome to David J.

DS,

It doesn't matter, ignorance of law is no defense. Since this guy appears to be in the US on a green card, he's doubly screwed. Even if he gets a suspended sentence he will be deported back to Uzebekistan and never allowed back.

Once again, remember that the US is a country that executes minors and retarded people. I don't think the prosecutors and the judiciary will look too kindly on a dumbass who was in too much of hurry to read the fine print.

More RE fodder from the NYT, this time about ARM resets and the sad FB's using them:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/24/realestate/24cov.html?_r=1&ref=realestate&oref=slogin

"It Seemed Like a Good Bet at the Time ... "

By BOB TEDESCHI
Published: September 24, 2006

"On Nov. 1, the adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, she took out three years ago at the spectacular rate of 3.875 percent will get considerably more expensive. Ms. Rogers, a single mother of two living in a three-bedroom ranch in suburban Boston, faces a rate increase of three percentage points, raising her monthly house payment by $300, to $1,419, and putting her at a financial crossroads.

Her choices: keep the loan and run the risk of future increases, or ditch her adjustable mortgage in favor of a more stable loan with a higher monthly payment.

Ms. Rogers, a hairstylist working 32 hours a week, will have to work more in either case. The 6.85 percent 30-year fixed-rate loan she is considering would cost $100 a month more than her higher ARM payment, but it would at least protect her from future increases that could go far higher."

#########

OK, I'm all for the American dream and all, but what is a single mother of 3 hairstylist doing with a $1400/month mortgage?

And another NYT article, this one more insipid and evil:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/24/realestate/24books.html?_r=1&ref=realestate&oref=slogin

"A Soothing Voice Amid the Market’s Chicken Littles"

By FRED BROCK
Published: September 24, 2006

"NO WORRIES “The market is not crashing,” said Blanche Evans, the author of “Bubbles, Booms, and Busts: Make Money in Any Real Estate Market,” who sees the current housing slump as more of a breather.

But Blanche Evans, the author of “Bubbles, Booms, and Busts: Make Money in Any Real Estate Market” (McGraw-Hill, 2006), isn’t buying it. She sees the current slump as more of a breather, as well as a chance for buyers and sellers to “reposition” themselves to take advantage of the long-term upward trend in housing prices.

In other words, she contends there is money to be made in real estate even if prices head south for a while.

Ms. Evans, who is also the editor of Realty Times (realtytimes.com), an online real estate news service based in Dallas, says the current slump has mainly forced a lot of quick-money speculators out of the housing market. "

Blanche Evans is one of the biggest rah-rah RE cheerleader douchebags out there. The NYT has truly sunk to a new low, publishing a shill piece for the RE industry. It's pathetic.

NYT's lifestyle sections have always been about tempting people to spend too much and making multi-millionaires feel poor.

Hello Allah. My wife and I do plan to wait for a bit before we try to buy. Our preference is to stay here in the L.A. area as this is were the vast majority of family and friends live. When you spend your entire life in an area I guess thats expected. At the moment we have a nice apartment in Burbank that we rent for $675 a month and since we live well below our means we are able to put a decent amount of our income away each month. We've been at it for a while now so we're well on the way towards meeting our goal but it requires doing without a lot the things that others might take for granted. We've become so frugal that on the surface we may even appear poor, especially when compared to the spending habbits of the cash out refinancing crowd. Hopefully, in the end it will all be worth it. Finding this web site and reading Patricks detailed explanation of the current housing market, and the comments of all of you that regularly contribute realy saved my financial neck. Thanks to all.

no, no, he came out 15 years ago or something, when he was presumably 9 or 11. must be completely naturalised and enculturated by now -- no sending him back. great melting pot etc etc, remember?

i know the US has the highest incarceration rate in the OECD by an order of magnitude, and equal to russia, oh well, that's your choice. maybe it has the highest incarceration rate because the answer to all problems by most of the populace is: 'charge his guilty ass' -- america is a country full of B&W splitters, after all, which seems to cause more problems than it solves...

meanwhile, a huge beer brewer near me is angling to get 100 m (33 storey) towers built next to 4 storey residential in a quiet area, they have simply co-opted the dept of planning chief architect and the minister for planning himself as cheerleaders for the proposal, and the 'expert panel' is made up of an ex-mayor and 4 state govt personnel -- if they get these towers thru and destroy the area, that's not illegal -- mainly because they ARE the law. one little pipsqueak like casey serin, who is the only one suffering at this stage, mind you (except for the lenders), is supposed to get the book thrown at him for being silly and taking risks to 'get ahead in property', but it's ok for big business to exploit real estate by building huge towers for extra profit with a nod from the govt and some brown paper envelopes changing hands between the elite for the eternal ruin of the area. and no-one ever gets prosecuted, they just walk away with the 'legally earned' moolah by abusing the process of urban planning.

after all, Karl Marx argued that the law is the mechanism by which one social class, usually referred to as the "ruling class", keeps all the other classes in a disadvantaged position.

prosecuting casey is small target stuff, and just shows how the RE 'gurus' are operating providing dubious advice to uneducated, inexperienced, nearly broke people, e.g.: John T. Reed's analysis of Carleton H. Sheets' books and tapes

plenty of gurus get murdered, or go bust, and many of their students go bust also trying to carry out the 'strategies' or even to pay for the courses...

but that's fine, black and white thinkers self-select as prosecuting DAs, shade of grey thinkers go into defence...

DS,

There are people who are here for decades on a green card but never bother to apply for citizenship. Someone already mentioned that this Serin guy is here on a green card, so he's a deportation risk. Believe it or not, this happens quite often - some people came to the US as young children or adoptees and then find themselves deported for felonies decades later.

I'm not a big fan of incarcination in general (though the major driver of US incarcination rates lies with its unwinnable war on drugs) but I think there is insufficient prosecution for white collar crime.

I’m not a big fan of incarcination in general (though the major driver of US incarcination rates lies with its unwinnable war on drugs) but I think there is insufficient prosecution for white collar crime.

I am not a fan of incarcination at all. Most long prison terms should be commuted to death sentences. Prisons are very expensive. Gallows are much cheaper to operate.

i don't think they'll deport him for that one... mass murder maybe... after all, he's only trying to realise the american dream... do you get a green card when you're 9 years old? (his family came out 15 years ago)

housing panic's blog comments are worth reading on his plight, and who else might be to blame:
HP "Exclusive": Iamfacingforeclosure.com

i note that casey has also attempted to author an earlier article on 'buying houses wholesale' elsewhere on the net. the language of 'buying houses wholesale' is used by fake RE gurus a lot, and is essentially meaningless, and just shows that someone just completed a guru course if they use it. the only way you can buy a house wholesale is to buy the plot of land and develop it yourself. after that, it's sold for a value added retail amount, and you can't reinstate its 'wholesaleness' later. not that anyone in the industry uses the word in that context anyhow...

Also useful: The real estate BS artist detection checklist

Hello LILLL and astrid. Thanks for the welcome. I drive a Dodge Ram 2500 that I bought new in Jan 98. I swore I would keep it for at least ten years and then see how it's holding up. So far it's been the most trouble free vehicle I've ever owned. Only routine maintenance has been required and it's almost nine years old. In the end I hope to be able to keep it for fifteen to twenty years. A friend of mine bought a truck similar to mine just a couple of months earlier than I did and is now on his fourth new truck since then. The amount of money that is wasted by folks that feel they need a new car every two years is staggering. My wifes car is only four years old and I think I'm going have a tough time convincing her to keep it for six more.

Peter P Says:
I am not a fan of incarcination at all. Most long prison terms should be commuted to death sentences. Prisons are very expensive. Gallows are much cheaper to operate.

jeez, you must get mugged or burgled weekly in alternation to have that view. "hang 'em high..."

can we also hang corrupt congressmen who take money from big business and special interests for favourable treatment (all of them), war criminal presidents, most attorneys, RE salespersons, RE gurus, used car salespersons, most bankers, anyone who spends more than $300 on a suit, anyone whose attitude i don't like, etc. i'll be in on that... i will set them all long prison sentences and have to commute them to death sentences, because the law demands it! ah, it will be a fine cultural purging come the revolution...

Meantime, Randy is out there trying to influence the market for the benefit of us all. So is Peter P.

I cannot speak for Peter P. But as for me, I am not about crusading as some market making altruist. I am only interested in securing a suitable home for my family at a suitable price. That it may help a wider market if others engage in similar market setting behaviors is nothing more than a pleasant side-effect.

I hope it doesn't surprise or disappoint anyone to find out that I am decidedly not an altruist.

Meantime, Randy is out there trying to influence the market for the benefit of us all. So is Peter P.

I have never tried to influence the market and I will never try. It will not succeed. It will only bring frustration.

Matken,

Thanks but no thanks! I do my part to encourage elected officials to do their jobs and execute the laws they have on the books. That ought to keep them busy for a while.

I personally think that there is very little that is "real" in real estate, real estate for the most part is a lot of smoke and mirrors designed to confuse the buyer and make the process much easier for the agents.