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Even if the last 2 months of the year coming weaker than expected we should still end the year between 5.18 - 5.32 million
A key factor this year and why the Grade was a B is that we had growing mortgage buyers and falling cash buyers, cash buyers are still historically high, 15% above historical norms, the fact that they're falling to me is still a positive as the market starts to go back to it's normal home buying %.
We should see some monthly 2016 sales print out a teenager # for monthly sales from cash buyers which would be the first time in this cycle that has happened
Even if the last 2 months of the year coming weaker than expected we should still end the year between 5.18 - 5.32 million
A graph that plots new home sales vs how many are needed to serve a rising and migrating population would be cool. Especially if it can be broken down by region. That would be a key variable in determining future home prices. I'm gonna try and search one out, but see if you can too. From what I'm seeing, spring 2016 is likely to be a whole new phase of price increases.
A graph that plots new home sales vs how many are needed to serve a rising and migrating population would be cool
This is for existing homes not new homes, I will have a new home grade report after the next new home sales report.
My grade will be slightly higher because unlike every other housing analyst I didn't have a 24%-41% sales growth number making 2015 the 3 straight year of missed sales estimates.
Median new home sale prices are flat this year, that is more due to the make up shift of sales. It doesn't take much when it's only 500K sales
A graph that plots new home sales
I might need another month in sales data to write report on new home sales, revisions were badly negative in today's report and we had a miss on headline which most likely means that number will be negative revised
Median sale price of new homes sold was $281,500 – down from $307,800 in Sept. Lowest in over a year!
I don't see the price decline as a big deal as make shift in sales is a big factor with such low levels of total sales
A graph that plots new home sales vs how many are needed to serve a rising and migrating population
I would use this to make your bullish point in term demographic demand curve
I wouldn't read too much here
I fully agree.
I would use this to make your bullish point in term demographic demand curve
It partially meets what I was looking for.
Here's what I'm looking for. Graphs showing the shortage/surplus of new homes built, annual and cumulative, US and regional. I am willing to bet that would be a crystal ball for future home prices in today's scenario. The crystal ball would be even more crystal clear by adding other variables like unemployment. These graphs may not be around and would have to be made from scratch. I have forgotten most of the stuff from my classes, but a simplified version should be possible to make with the right data.
The hypothesis is: A lack of home building is the primary cause of home prices and rent increase in certain regions, in todays scenario.
Here's what I'm looking for. Graphs showing the shortage/surplus of new homes built, annual and cumulative,
I would suggest incorporating rental vacancies charts then because a lot the demand curve getting better years 2020-2024 is based on the massive rental cycle we are having turning over to buyers to a degree in those years
Here's what I'm looking for. Graphs showing the shortage/surplus of new homes built, annual and cumulative,
I would suggest incorporating rental vacancies charts then because a lot the demand curve getting better years 2020-2024 is based on the massive rental cycle we are having turning over to buyers to a degree in those years
Yes. I'm gonna start searching for data.
The hypothesis is: A lack of home building is the primary cause of home prices and rent increase in certain regions, in todays scenario.
Do you really believe that, except in a very FEW specialized regions?
Do you think that's what's going on Nationally?
Yes. Nationally and regionally, in varying degrees. The right graphs would give a very clear picture for the next 5 to 10 years.
Do you really believe that, except in a very FEW specialized regions?
Do you think that's what's going on Nationally?
The market place has been talking since the year 2000 as the builders are only really building out bigger homes to make their profit margins
Hence why I have been cautious on TOL for a few years, other builders much better suited
I really wanted to write a Report Card on New homes because I brought up the negative decelerating trends through revisions months ago, but this report revisions was worse than I thought so I might have to wait for one more report
New Home Sales Need A Strong Total Report
http://loganmohtashami.com/2015/08/19/new-home-sales-need-a-strong-total-report/
New Home Sales Miss Was Forecast Months Ago
http://loganmohtashami.com/2015/10/26/new-home-sales-miss-was-forecast-months-ago/
We are still going to get year over year but this is again the 3rd year in a row of missed sales expectation and this is with the lowest late cycle year over year bar I have ever seen in my life
they don't seem to need a great number of sales when their product is priced so high. everybody loves a $2M estate home. no wait, a "custom" is even better.
they don't seem to need a great number of sales when their product is priced so high. everybody loves a $2M estate home. no wait, a "custom" is even better.
In this cycle higher home price sales have tilted the median price higher since the total volumes for years have been very low
Median prices have fallen MoM and there is some inventory pressure now in the high-end market in the bay area while lower and middle-end is still somewhat desired because people cannot afford more. This will start to deflate in 2016. While many may be looking for a crash which may not come a slow decline is more difficult to grasp and acknowledge.
For national home prices for existing homes only not new homes.
It still has legs, inventory still to low for price declines, conventional to distress sales is growing, no recessionary economics in terms of job loss out there yet.
For national home prices for existing homes only not new homes.
It still has legs, inventory still to low for price declines, conventional to distress sales is growing, no recessionary economics in terms of job loss out there yet.
Prices in the bay area were driven up by very low inventory and ZIRP so that the few tech riches get dibs, followed by the double-income earners who barely can afford their mortgage at those low rates, depending on staying employed at all times. But the majority of jobs created were low income jobs and these people simply cannot buy. When foreigners and techies/wall street stop buying, there is nobody to take their place. Let's see how inventory will be trending going forward.
Prices in the bay area were driven up by very low inventory and ZIRP
That is a different set of variables than
For national home prices for existing homes only not new homes.
National home prices decline needs more inventory, new distress homes and recessionary trend economics to bring it down
No wonder every one you see is a stressed out of their minds powder keg.
They are only making 52K a year for combined household income and they are splurging on $290K median home prices.
I make double that, and I wouldn't dare take on more than $175K. Not when all of the other variables are ignored and the FED claims there is no inflation.
Now they say you should spend only 35% of your income on housing. I wouldn't ever spend over 25%.
They are only making 52K a year for combined household income and they are slurging on $290K meidan home prices
I believe the household median income is 66K a year
New homes are only 1/10th of sales, however, economic output is the most important factor due to construction jobs, big ticket item purchases , etc etc .
Since a good portion of the homes sold are much bigger than the median I would venture to say that we are talking about more than 100K household incomes buyers here
For new homes, which is a factor why the sales demand curve has been light in this cycle since it's a 90% mortgage market based sales sector
I was put through the ringer with my income back in 2010, I felt like if I made one penny less the whole deal would have been off, when I was closing and working with the loan officers.
I went from solid brown hair to salt-n-pepper litterally during that 45 day closing period.
I went from solid brown hair to salt-n-pepper litterally during that 45 day closing period.
marriage did that to me :-)
I'm so tired of hearing the "low inventory" chant causing prices to rise. It's total bullshit. There is 5.2 MONTHS supply, which is PLENTY of houses. Period.
That is very true for sales demand, yes.. but for price declines, it's not enough
In fact we have more annual inventory now than any period from 1999-2005 but missing roughly 1.5 million mortgage buyers a year in this cycle
On the rate aspect, rates have been falling for 34 years
If we pull back starting from 1900
Majority of the economic life cycle has had low rates
True but it can't and won't go on like this forever.
No it can't but it can stay low for a lot longer than what people think if inflation stays low as well.
Best case for higher rates and higher inflation are years 2020-2024 when demand consumption from a younger workforce creates more inflation.
However, big picture, older demographics are deflationary and the world is getting older, America does have a young workforce coming on line but a lot countries in the world are fighting older demographics
http://loganmohtashami.com/2015/11/23/existing-home-sales-2015-report-card/
#Housing