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Ironman says

Logan Mohtashami says

Take a final look at the XHB today, Ouch

You're going to make Strategist cry...

I'm already crying. "ITB" went up 6% when I was expecting 20%+
I'm gonna blame you and Logan for scaring the hell out of everyone.

Strategist says

I'm gonna blame you and Logan for scaring the hell out of everyone.

Keep an eye out on the earnings call, one thing that I did get wrong in 2016, I didn't think we would see profit margins hits on the builders earnings report calls in 2016 and the end of the year we saw TOL and Lennar come out with the first small breath of that.. as long as that doesn't get worse, the index should be fine, Q1 & Q2 reports big now

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

I'm gonna blame you and Logan for scaring the hell out of everyone.

Keep an eye out on the earnings call, one thing that I did get wrong in 2016, I didn't think we would see profit margins hits on the builders earnings report calls in 2016 and the end of the year we saw TOL and Lennar come out with the first small breath of that.. as long as that doesn't get worse, the index should be fine, Q1 & Q2 reports big now

This Spring I am predicting the start of a new phase in real estate activity led by sharply jumping home prices. When prices and sales take off, no one will care about the earnings. They will blindly buy the home builders.

Strategist says

This Spring I am predicting the start of a new phase in real estate activity led by sharply jumping home prices. When prices and sales take off, no one will care about the earnings. They will blindly buy the home builders.

Dude, it's 5:40 you can't be be drinking already! Pace yourself old man you're not 20 anymore ;-)

Happy New Year Buddy!

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

This Spring I am predicting the start of a new phase in real estate activity led by sharply jumping home prices. When prices and sales take off, no one will care about the earnings. They will blindly buy the home builders.

Dude, it's 5:40 you can't be be drinking already! Pace yourself old man you're not 20 anymore ;-)

Happy New Year Buddy!

I'm not out partying this year. All those drunks on the road might scratch my precious electric car. :)
Happy New Year :)

Strategist says

Happy New Year :)

Happy New Year and we are going to have another year where Harry Dent will be wrong with Dow 6,000

Logan Mohtashami says

Happy New Year and we are going to have another year where Harry Dent will be wrong with Dow 6,000

Will Strategist be right?

Strategist says

Will Strategist be right?

Only if he continues to imbibe.

Strategist says

Will Strategist be right?

Which ETF & % ... anything that has Lowes or Home Depot in it has been a plus or pure home builders? The only reason I went on CNBC to talk about TOL & XHB is because the growth they're saying on air for 6 months was just simply not true, you needed to see the Builders up 44% on total sales to get that type of growth, it started at 24% and then went lower when rates moved from 3.625%- 4.125% so they missed the revision story like most people do on the up and down side with new homes

If I told people back in 2013 ( When Housing Was Supposed To Be In Nirvana) that New Home Sales would be struggling to break through 500K in 2015 with 3.625%-4.125% everyone would have laughed at me and said I was out of my depth ....

Sales are so low that the downside is limited but the market place has been telling everyone a story for years, very few listened.

It's all about how much lower priced homes they can sell next to existing inventory which is much cheaper, that until demographics get better for housing

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Will Strategist be right?

Which ETF & % ... anything that has Lowes or Home Depot in it has been a plus or pure home builders?

ITB - up 30%+
AAPL - $130.00
S&P 10%+
OC Median home prices - 15%+

Strategist says

ITB - up 30%+

This is a good point ITB was $26 dollars In Early 2013 and it be open at $27.11 into 2016 :-)
but I think it was $9 bucks at the bottom

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

ITB - up 30%+

This is a good point ITB was $26 dollars In Early 2013 and it be open at $27.11 into 2016 :-)

but I think it was $9 bucks at the bottom

What about the OC median?

Strategist says

What about the OC median?

Much higher than 15% from the bottom in 2011/2012

Let's take my home, 2006 it appraised for $695,000 it went to as low as $395,000 and now is $625,000
My rental home peak 2006 was $320,000 got as low as $170,000K and Now last model sold $270K

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

What about the OC median?

Much higher than 15% from the bottom in 2011/2012

What? It's already there. I'm expecting a 15% increase in the OC median from today to Dec 31, 2016.

Strategist says

I'm expecting a 15% increase in the OC median from today to Dec 31, 2016.

Are you still drinking?

indigenous says

Strategist says

I'm expecting a 15% increase in the OC median from today to Dec 31, 2016.

Are you still drinking?

I just poured some wine into a small glass to enjoy with my dinner.

Strategist says

I'm expecting a 15% increase in the OC median from today to Dec 31, 2016.

Year over Year? Peak Price gains YoY was in 2013, I don't see that happening next year 15% year over year with inventory rising

Strategist says

small glass

I am hearing from a few of my friends that rentals-atleast in the east bay-are slowing down and even slightly dropping? Is this true?

lostand confused says

I am hearing from a few of my friends that rentals-atleast in the east bay-are slowing down and even slightly dropping? Is this true?

Yes, there is a bit of a slow down in rents and sales as well. I saw a house fall through from pending that I though would go for sure. Also one of my neighbors that bought a house at the bottom is putting it for sale (never lived in it for 4 years; I think he is Chinese national).

indigenous says

Strategist says

I'm expecting a 15% increase in the OC median from today to Dec 31, 2016.

Are you still drinking?

I just stopped drinking. For some strange reason there was nothing left in the bottle. :(

Happy New Year

I'm in San Diego and I'm seeing a lot of homes come onto the market on Redfin, which seems weird given it's not Spring/Summer.

indigenous says

Happy New Year

Happy New Year

Also,

New Homes 500K in sales
Existing Homes 5.2 million in sales

Though New Homes is more important to the economy

Each sector has it's own value , New Home inventory is well over 5 months now, so their is no reason for the slow down in the rate of sales from the start of the year, unless the demand curve really did get weaker from a 0.50% move up in rates.

Existing homes as been more steady, though growth has been more difficult since the Taper spike in rates in 2013.

5.10 2013 Miss
4.90 2014 Miss
5.20 ( roughly) around there, is on par with some estimates .

Not much velocity in this cycle, a lot low bar starting points

Logan Mohtashami says

New Homes 500K in sales

Existing Homes 5.2 million in sales

Though New Homes is more important to the economy

Each sector has it's own value , New Home inventory is well over 5 months now, so their is no reason for the slow down in the rate of sales from the start of the year, unless the demand curve really did get weaker from a 0.50% move up in rates.

Existing homes as been more steady, though growth has been more difficult since the Taper spike in rates in 2013.

5.10 2013 Miss

4.90 2014 Miss

5.20 ( roughly) around there, is on par with some estimates .

Not much velocity in this cycle, a lot low bar starting points

OK, I get it. Please remember December 2011 was even worse. A lot lot worse. But what happened? A huge wave of desperate buyers who suddenly decided the time was right to buy. This Spring the time will be ripe again, except it will be a Tsunami of desperate buyers.

Strategist says

OK, I get it.

No you don't, it is about demographics, and hopefully jobs

indigenous says

Strategist says

OK, I get it.

No you don't, it is about demographics, and hopefully jobs

I thought you understood "theory of comparative advantage" This is a U Turn.

Strategist says

I thought you understood "theory of comparative advantage" This is a U Turn.

Splain me

Strategist says

OK, I get it. Please remember December 2011 was even worse. A lot lot worse. But what happened? A huge wave of desperate buyers who suddenly decided the time was right to buy.

Disagree 100% due to this fact, if the 50 year avg for new home sales is 700- 750K, just the average rate of sales.

The add the fact

322 million Americans
153 Million working Americans
Interest rates below 5% since early 2011

Here is the rolling 8 year sales trend, ignore the miss by Wells Fargo for 2015, it's still a toss up if we even close at 500K this year....

That means 8 years running we have never broken over 500K sales with the lowest mortgage rate curve post WWII

This is why I found the pent up demand thesis not only to be funny, but to be mathematically incoherent with the data

I wonder if it is the modern economy. With jobs being so fluid and transient-do people even want to buy homes? I bought one , because it is a low cost area. now if you have a business etc or an overseas Chinese dude with tons of cash you want to get out of China-then fine. But for the average American job person-upper middle income-one never knows what the newest corporate strategy-aka outsourcing-Is going to hit.

Tru Dat, but the mercantilism will presumably subside for a while. IOW China has to start building a consumer society and that is not going to happen by continuing to devalue the yuan. Which is why Mexico and other countries are going to start seeing some benefit from this shift. Other than India, I don't see any other countries that can play the same game as China. And India is hopeless mired down with bureaucratic corruption. The US on the other hand will grow hopefully with good jobs.

lostand confused says

I wonder if it is the modern economy. With jobs being so fluid and transient-do people even want to buy homes? I bought one ,

People tend to buy when they have kids,

2015 has 5.7 million roughly total homes bought, this with a mild demographic cycle too.

I have always had this economic process for strong demand curve housing cycles

Americans

1. Rent
2. Date
3. Mate
4. Marry

3.5 - 6 years after marriage = kids and = home buying. College educated dual incomes Americans, the best of bread buy homes. The rest are renters and probably will be renters the rest of their lives unless something changes for them

This is a huge factor why I was 100% sure back in 2010 this cycle would have the worst demand curve post WWII

However, renting for longer periods is a norm now and staying at home with your parents is very strong in this cycle

What I wrote in 2010

“The longer term consequences of an unstable residential real estate market may be more serious than just the destruction of individual wealth. The ideal of middle class home ownership may be at stake. The census bureau reported a 7% decline in national rental vacancy rates in 2010, along with an overall decline of 0.7% in home ownership rates compared to a year ago. There were fewer “organic” buyers, more renters and more investment buyers in the market in 2010 and I expect this trend to continue into 2011. Are we at the beginning of a sociological movement away from middle class home ownership and towards a cultural split between the investment property landlords and their renters both of whom may have less personal investment in neighborhood security, local schools and shared public facilities compared to primary homeowners.”

A lot pent up demand for renting in coming years

Time, these Americans simply need more time

Also, Gen X got thrashed in the Housing bubble and those cashing out 2-4 times took out a lot equity, it's why you see a lot boomers renting homes, household formation has been strong by those over the age of 40 renting

Logan prides himself on emulating Harry Dent. (8^())

indigenous says

Logan prides himself on emulating Harry Dent. (8^())

I like Harry, but his thesis on demand curve economics in relationship to the economy is dreadful, I have actually never read his work
for this reason. Once in a while I see a headline that always gives me his laugh. I do have some of his readers as facebook friends, so it seems like we are in line with things
since demographic economics is something that rarely gets mentioned.

However, Dent has been terrible this cycle, his tactic is prolong his 6,000 call until the cycle ends which in this cycle, the cycle lasted to long for the Perma Bears.
I have had a lot fun with my Perma Bear friends in this cycle ;-)

Not to mention Dent called for a crash in 2010, he probably had the worst economic cycle out of anyone in the past 50 years

Not sure Dent knows what a business cycle is.

indigenous says

Not sure Dent knows what a business cycle is.

Still he is a great marketing guy, anyone else that would have been this wrong for 7 years would have been fired or lost his readership with 3 stock market crashes in 7 years.

He does point out how effective demographics are in predicting markets. Beyond that not so much, there are too many moving parts in an economy just to focus on demographics.