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The U.S. Economy Is About To Crash
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2016 Apr 1, 6:56am 24,989 views 82 comments
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_
2016 Apr 8, 11:19am
Hyman Minsky!
Again, you're making my point
Low educated, Low Skilled, Drug Users, Criminal Active Americans are having a rough time
Peak unemployment rate for college educated Americans in the Great Recession was 5% and now it's 2.6%
with 16 year highs in Job openings and 43 year low in unemployment claims
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Apr 8, 11:25am
with 16 year highs in Job openings
Versus the dot com recession, not much to brag about.
43 year low in unemployment claims
Yep, some millenial living at home is getting 10-15 hours at Accounttemps, therefore has a job.
_
2016 Apr 8, 11:26am
Yep, some millenial living at home is getting 10-15 hours at Accounttemps, therefore has a job
College educated M's don't work those jobs, but non educated people do, I will give you that
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Apr 8, 11:27am
College educated M's don't work those jobs, but non educated people do, I will give you that
I mean somebody with a degree who is working as a Temp or Waitress - if they work at all, they're not unemployed.
Only 45% of Americans are employed full time (30+) hours.
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemployment.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce.aspx
_
2016 Apr 8, 11:29am
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemployment.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce.aspx
Gallap is horrible .... remember Gallap Leader was one to believe that 95 millions Americans are out of work
Even though we didn't lose more than 15 million from the Great Recession
_
2016 Apr 8, 3:07pm
First-quarter economy looks bleaker by the day.
Atlanta GDP has missed on it's GDP estimates 75% of the time by under shooting GDP
We have always had 1 real bad GDP quarter for years now
No Crash No Recession has happened because of this.
Even myself lowered by low end GDP this to a 1 handle and even with that
No Recession, No Crash,
:-)
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Apr 8, 4:15pm
Last year’s chemistry graduates in the US saw the jobs market improve, with unemployment falling from nearly 15% to 12.4%, according to figures from the American Chemical Society’s (ACS) annual graduate survey, released on 29 June.
Nevertheless, unemployment among new chemistry graduates ‘continues to run high,’ and was roughly 4 times as high as the rate for regular ACS members in 2014, the ACS noted. The unemployment figure was 12.4% for new grads versus 2.9% for ACS members, according to the survey, which was sent to 12,771 recent graduates in October and November 2014.
The overall picture is much rosier than the one painted by ACS’ last survey, which reported unemployment among chemistry graduates rising from 12.6% to 14.9% between 2012 and 2013.
ACS’s new data show that the median starting salary for new chemistry graduates with a bachelor's degree in 2014 improved 2.6% ahead of inflation. But at the same time, salaries for new master’s and PhD holders lagged behind inflation. Worst hit was the median starting salary of new doctorate chemists, which fell 20% from $75,000 in 2013 to $60,000 in 2014.
Regarding equality of the sexes, the survey reveals that new female chemistry graduates earned a starting median salary that was 7.3% less than their male counterparts in 2014. However, among chemical engineers, new female graduates were paid a starting median salary that was 3% higher than their male equivalents.
http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2015/07/employment-prospects-better-us-chemistry-graduates
The Media seldom reports high STEM unemployment numbers, because it takes away from one of the last Neoliberal red herring distraction of a skills mismatch and "People get the opportunities they work hard to qualify for" when there is already a glut of prospective qualified employees.
_
2016 Apr 8, 5:28pm
Very last thing I am worried about are the educated middle class in this country
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Apr 8, 5:35pm
I'm not taking the AEI is a source.
Especially since all research in this century done on the matter shows a compressed, shrinking Middle Class with people more likely to fall out from it than climb into it.
The Pew Research Center shows just that, as do other groups that aren't extremist radical neoliberal ideologue think tanks.
http://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/the-incredible-shrinking-middle-class/
_
2016 Apr 8, 5:42pm
The Pew Research Cente
Same exact thesis
Which I admit it was actually funny, people kept on sending me pew I said.... ????
I admit reading data isn't for everyone .....
_
2016 Apr 8, 5:45pm
Which goes to the core thesis
Anti American Left and Right have failed and now resorted to ranting about economics which for the most part is trying to create a false narrative thesis
Bears have been wrong about America for 226 years and you guys had your best shot to try to convince people that America is a failure
_
2016 Apr 8, 6:02pm
As long as we have our demographics and the dollar, the Perma Bears will fall, piles and piles of dead skulls for those who said America would fail!
_
2016 Apr 9, 3:58pm
We aren't Europe!
Negative interest rates reaching Consumer finance in Germany
_
2016 Apr 13, 11:28am
The commercial paper market is dead,
Commercial is hot, you can make a over investment thesis there, but it's holding up
Commercial and industrial loans continue to rise, now at $2.03 trillion http://bit.ly/1SFmz5n
Strategist
2016 Apr 13, 6:46pm
She is old but she still has legs
Wings Logan, she has wings. We are about to witness one of the greatest economic booms in American history.
_
2016 Apr 13, 6:48pm
We are about to witness one of the greatest economic booms in American history.
Speaking of which I have $1,895,000 home for you, not far from where you live, old man!
Strategist
2016 Apr 13, 7:01pm
We are about to witness one of the greatest economic booms in American history.
Speaking of which I have $1,895,000 home for you, not far from where you live, old man!
$995,000. Take it or leave it young man.
By the way, I already purchased a home in North San Diego County. The old shack will be rented for a sky high price. I am now in a position to maximize profits with the coming boom like a good capitalist pig.
Strategist
2016 Apr 13, 7:07pm
$995,000. Take it or leave it young man.
You were busy in 2010
I purchased rentals close to me in Ladera Ranch spring 2012, and a bunch of land in Feb 2013. I did nothing in 2010.
Trust me, Ladera Ranch will beat the rest of OC in appreciation.
Strategist
2016 Apr 13, 7:08pm
Speaking of which I have $1,895,000 home for you, not far from where you live, old man!
_
2016 Apr 13, 7:10pm
Ladera Ranch
That area had the highest deliquesces, but smoke em you got them.
My rental is in Trabuco Canyon
Strategist
2016 Apr 13, 7:16pm
Ladera Ranch
That area had the highest deliquesces, but smoke em you got them.
My rental is in Trabuco Canyon
The whole place was built during the bubble era. When the crash took place, everyone walked away making the place a super bargain. In 2012 90% of the homes were short sales. Today, almost nothing is a short sale.
Trabuco Canyon has good potential too, along with RSM.
_
2016 Apr 13, 7:24pm
Ladera Ranch
A lot Option Arms in that neighborhood .... during the bubble years.
They're building in Trabuco Canyon near my rental, 1 bedroom 1 Bath Condo 280k Rent $1,400
Strategist
2016 Apr 13, 7:28pm
They're building in Trabuco Canyon near my rental, 1 bedroom 1 Bath Condo 280k Rent $1,400
A few more of those, and you are set.
Strategist
2016 Apr 16, 3:36pm
A few more of those, and you are set.
Maybe in 4 -6 years
You'll be late to the party.
_
2016 Apr 20, 5:48pm
I see you have been studying those really scary economic charts from Mish.
The best response to this article today
_
2016 Apr 20, 5:51pm
2009-2016... has been the single worst periods for the Perma Bear group and the cycle duration outlasted their fraud economic theories
It has been so much fun this year... tearing up their none sense
People forget that this is #America not some sissy crying begging country debasing it's currency for hope of an exporting bailout of their economy...
:-)
Logan, I can't believe your new forecast. All your your charts show zero trouble for the economy other than home prices.
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Apr 20, 6:13pm
Bears have been wrong about America for 226 years and you guys had your best shot to try to convince people that America is a failure
You're not talking to me, I hope. America was the Greatest 1930-1980, when we experienced the greatest increase in power, standard of living, and technology ever seen on the face of planet earth.
Using temporary demographics-driven (all the boomers turning 20-30 in the 70s) inflation as an excuse, the laissez faire schmucks came out and to get an extra 1-2% return a year, started gutting the country.
There were no power outages in California until the Energy Industry was Deregulated. There had been no massive financial crisis with banking since the 1930s, until the repeal of Glass-Steagle.
We know what works - everybody profits under the new deal. But some would prefer for 45% of the population to suck it, just so they can be a little more rich than they already are.
People would piss their pants to have the kind of real growth among all segments of society that we had 1936-1980. Neoliberalism's record is a pale shadow in comparison. Any red herrings "Oh we already achieved maximum consumer growth" are simple unverifiable assertions and excuses.
_
2016 Apr 20, 6:14pm
Logan, I can't believe your new forecast. All your your charts show zero trouble for the economy other than home prices.
Since inventory fell below 6 months which happened in 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Yearly Housing Predictions articles have all had price gains, because it's been the same thesis always
2016 inventory levels are still low enough for price gains, the median price cool down in 2015 for new home prices had more to do with a make shift of sales prices on lower end lows, which isn't a bad thing... actually it was a thesis of mine for more sales if that did happen.
Economics though....
Claims, JOLTS, LEI, these things have had a economic equilibrium factor for decades, so the recession calls were always silly, but 2016 was the epic year, the destined cycle is too old we have to have a recession by now time warp thesis that the economy is always on the verge of the 2nd great recession
It was just nonsense..
We are at 43 year lows on claims
and 16 year highs on Job openings with 5.4 million plus
Bill Mcbride at Calculated Risk and Myself like to poke fun of the yellow journalism Zero Hedge crowd so my snickered at this article because it's very popular only due to headline ....
The emails I got back after my bearish friends read this... #Classic
The extreme left and right have gone hay wire crazy with their economic theories on the U.S. economy...
All based on a lack of understanding on demographic economics
_
2016 Apr 20, 6:19pm
You're not talking to me, I hope. America was the Greatest 1930-1980, when we experienced the greatest increase in power, standard of living, and technology ever seen on the face of planet earth.
The world changed... the economy changed... We went from 2 trillion to 18 trillion, no way on planet earth we could have managed a manufacturing high inflation economy with the globalization of the world 
Here is my biggest problem with left wing economic thinkers, you loved the economy when it was small and yet you don't see the fruits of expansion labor due to a service sector economy.
China is desperate trying to get to where we are and they're having a rough time with their state capitalism
Nobody does it better than we do... if they did... Americans would have left a long time .... but everyone stays and everyone wants to come here
China
Russia
Europe
Canada
South America
...... None of them come close to us! and now we are about to press our demographic muscles... so we will have a recession for sure at some point but the crash thesis the end of America....
We don't beg... that's not an American thing...
China
Russia
Europe
Canada
South America...... None of them come close to us!
I am not sure about that - if you look at standard of living in germany for example, if you actually follow a 35 year old who works a good job and compare their live with anyone in the US you will find - 6 weeks of vacation, healthcare that's affordable or already paid for with your tax, overall a completely different lifestyle that is more based on where to travel next then when to loose your job. We work our asses off in this country. Americans travel 1 week max. That's not even a vacation in a european sense. That's a weekend.
_
2016 Apr 20, 8:51pm
if you actually follow a 35 year old who works a good job and compare their live
Germany is a old country, they have done great controlling Euro and all the little puppets of Euro zone....who despises the German power control
How beautiful was it that Thatchers warned them all want Germany would do before the Euro and Greece and others would never leave due to the fear
of Inflation.
Germany has done well controlling the smaller weaker European countries
But ... they're old, hence why they're desperate trying to capture as many Syrians as they can because they need young workers ..... 500K a year until 2050 just to keep pace...
Europe is old.... 20 years have soft growth and now... now they face their demographic problem
_
2016 Apr 21, 6:22am
I am sorry, I know promised not to add any more unemployment claim charts on this pages, but we just broke a under 250K print ... even with the oil crash, even with the world slowing down...
2016 The 2nd Great Recession Year is now showing historical lows in unemployment claims in a time where the world is slowing down.
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http://loganmohtashami.com/2016/04/01/the-u-s-economy-is-about-to-crash/
Sorry guys, I had to write this article today
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