patrick.net

Regarding the Sword of Damocles, the increase in the M2 and the question regarding demographics in the 20s have been asked 3 times with no answer.

These questions are not going to be answered.

Logan Mohtashami says

Are you serious, honestly is this a serious question you're asking?

This is the question you keep dodging.

When 2020 comes and there is no Great Depression

Trust me... all I have to do is wait..

Starting from today you two I am going to spend my discussion blowing your economic non sense and Great Depression Serf economic theories

Just you two .... day in and day out

It will be my pleasure, You both have embarrassed yourselves tonight

So, no answer then?

Trying to educate lost souls like yourself is not embarrassing. Frustrating, perhaps. But not embarrassing.

Starting tomorrow

Logan vs Great Depression Serfs May 2020... we keep this thread alive that I will start tomorrow all the way ....

The foundation of big four is solid now... now we run into a stronger labor force...

But hey I will give you to 2020

BTW Friedman, Mr. MMT, was really a Keynesian. Because both believed in the demand thesis.

My demand curve thesis for housing had a demographic light patch to it from 2008-2019 but following that discipline that changes starting year 2020 and you're trying to import a weak Japan demographic thesis here when our labor force growth is going to be good.

It's not going to be a 5% GDP economy but it will be much more solid with economic output

Your 2020 is Japan Depression and My America 2020 is giving birth to a strong young labor force

That sounds about right between you and I

Ok, calling it a night my wife thinks I am flirting on line ...

Have a good night everyone sleep well! Don't let the Serf bugs bite ;-)

One of these days we all have to meet for Drinks

jazz music says

. and houses can only go up?

Home prices and inventory have a strong correlation, once inventory breaks over 6 months and we get a recession that can bring distress homes into the market then the negative pricing factor gets stronger.

Since this cycle is very clean on the mortgage front the next cycle down turn will bear nothing to housing bubble which was lead by fake demand and exotic debts that didn't create much equity.

We also don't have a cash out boom either unlike 2004-2006 that took more equity out of the equation.

Adjusting to inflation prices are still 20% below the peak of 2006

jazz music says

... and houses can only go up?

Such hubris is comical. If I were you I would hide behind an avatar and take a name like ... The Loan Arranger, ... no no no ... that is American alright, but your brand of patriotism is too shrill more like ...YES ... Baghdad Bob, That is you. Baghdad Bob's Mortgage.

It has been my honor, namaste.

@Strategist what do you think about this fucking horse shit right here? this guy needs meds, bro.

"No over investment thesis in this cycle"

the investment angle is a red herring

The crash won't be due to over investment but due to excessive debt that cant be paid back and due to inflated asset prices like stocks that don't bear any rational econmic relation to their valuations

smaulgld says

The crash won't be due to over investment but due to excessive debt that cant be paid back and due to inflated asset prices like stocks that don't bear any rational econmic relation to their valuations

That thesis could have been used from 2010-2016 and has been used as valuation have never been cheap but with low inflation and low rates the cycle had had legs and is going into it's 9 year of expansion

She is old and she can't break over 2,136 .... but the Americans bears are showing their lack of economic background..

A deflationary spiral with Americans economics it's very difficult to have with our consumption based model as technology and globalization have killed inflation

I welcome the right and left to join forces against me for the next 15 years and their massive American crash economic theories, Or U.S. citizens becoming Serfs or some deflationary spiral

Last 5 years I have studied the hard left and right and what they preconceive to be economic equilibrium to some disaster American end

I have realized that

A. Investing thesis
B. Actually don't have a background in economics or versed in economic data
C. Create False economic theories base on their own political and economic ideology back ground

This is very normal in history for the extreme left and right cry a sad river pain when they just act like Drama Queens

So, I renounce them all, every last one of them and their false death and destruction theories

We aren't Europe, Japan, South American, Russia or some desperate debasing currency exporting nation that gets punished when the dollar rise

You people picked the wrong country to bet against...

This time .... someone is going to call you both out... because once we get this recession and it doesn't creates Serfs or some titanic deflationary spiral, or some Great Depression

They everyone here will realize you were all just a bunch of story tellers that weren't versed in economic data.

This is battle I am willing to wanting to take on 2021! No Great American Depression...

Logan Mohtashami says

They everyone here will realize you were all just a bunch of story tellers that weren't versed in economic data.

You are free to have your opinion that demographics somehow override inequality. And that real wages will somehow go up as more people enter the workforce.

But don't pretend that economic data supports your theory. All the charts and graphs you've posted support my thesis. No real wage growth for 16 years. Peaks and troughs of each economic cycle are getting lower. We understand data and interpret graphs much better than you do.

tatupu70 says

. No real wage growth for 16 years. Peaks and troughs of each economic cycle are getting lower. We understand data and interpret graphs much better than you do.

Get on talking .. this is game plan for the next 15 years to show the extreme left are just as off as the extreme right

Your lack of understanding employment to population economics shows

Logan Mohtashami says

Your lack of understanding employment to population economics show

You often mistake disagreement as lack of understanding. I fully understand your thesis but believe it to be incorrect.

tatupu70 says

I fully understand your thesis but believe it to be incorrect.

If your thesis had any merit our economy would look like Europe or South America

Except Americans don't cry, Americans don't beg, We work!

I don't buy your talk, if you really believed this you have taken your family away from here and moved to Sweden

Your children and grand children becoming Serfs ... why would you ever put them through that horror?

Logan Mohtashami says

If your thesis had any merit our economy would look like Europe or South America

What are you talking about?

Logan Mohtashami says

I don't buy your talk, if you really believed this you have taken your family away from here and moved to Sweden

Huh? I'm doing fine. My children will be fine. My grandchildren will be fine. And I want to help fix this country, not run away.

landtof says

jazz music says

... and houses can only go up?

Such hubris is comical. If I were you I would hide behind an avatar and take a name like ... The Loan Arranger, ... no no no ... that is American alright, but your brand of patriotism is too shrill more like ...YES ... Baghdad Bob, That is you. Baghdad Bob's Mortgage.

It has been my honor, namaste.

@Strategist what do you think about this fucking horse shit right here? this guy needs meds, bro.

jazz music says

landtof says

@Strategist what do you think

BWA HAHAHAhahahahahaHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!

Our Shakespeare read the crisis facing Venezuela, the country that is over the cliff. He is in deep pain at the thought of his comrades being overthrown.
Eat some cake, Jazz.

tatupu70 says

And I want to help fix this country, not run away.

fixing a country is different than 1929 depression and we are serfs

tatupu70 says

Huh? I'm doing fine. My children will be fine. My grandchildren will be fine. And I want to help fix this country, not run away.

The best way you can help is......do nothing.

Logan Mohtashami says

fixing a country is different than 1929 depression and we are serfs

Obviously. Not sure why you would think otherwise.

tatupu70 says

Obviously. Not sure why you would think otherwise

Lead from strength not weakness

When you start saying Serfs and Great Depression that is fear and when that reality doesn't happen, the people that do need help then now and in the past won't get it

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4ei1 … Real Median Household Income is a function of a) Real Median Weekly Earnings and b) the Participation Rate

The Real Recession is over: real median weekly earnings are finally at fresh all time highs.

Your days of channeling data to not show the entire story are done , 5,000,000 charts will counter everything you put here

This is My site now with economic data

According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the number of open construction sector jobs (on a seasonally adjusted basis) increased to 193,000 in February from a downwardly revised estimate of 157,000 in January. The current estimate beat the previous cycle high of 177,000 unfilled positions set last May and represents the highest monthly count of job openings since July 2007.

Which goes to my point that we are closer to full employment and what is left in this cycle can't be filled because we are labor light

Below 3% from college Grads on unemployment and last leg of high school drop outs were being hired fast in 2015

What's left

Low level quality, Drug addicts, Criminal active people

New York Times just had a piece saying how hard to was to hire someone because a lot people couldn't pass a drug test

Every sector has job openings and this stage of the cycle if you're not working it's you, it's not the economy

What we see is very common at this stage of economic cycle

This is why Claims, JOLTS, LEI and are important in economic cycle timing ..

We don't have a job problem in America, plenty of jobs out there and after year 8 of this cycle, if someone hasn't worked in 8 years, it's not the economy faults

Need a quick course in demographic economics and here is BLS table for 1. Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by sex, quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm

Logan Mohtashami says

You're Deflationary Spiral thesis is just as bad as the Gold Bugs, Don't you dare leave this site come 2020 when post Recession cycle looks nothing like you're claiming it be

You're mistaking YoY % over a long term extended run

Not the correct way

And another Logan cop-out. Can't answer the question?

Jesus Holy $)(_#0-

Wow...

You can't believe this non sense, you're just talking for the sake of debating this is bordello madness

I refuse to believe what you said